The new reality taking shape in Syria may be in its infancy but one thing is clear – this is a moment of extreme uncertainty for the country’s people and the wider Middle East. The collapse of six decades of Baath Party rule injects further volatility into a part of the region already destabilised by continuing conflicts.
Syrians are processing this historic moment while some are considering the many questions thrown up by this turning point. The end of the government led by president Bashar Al Assad has been met by a great wave of emotion that is sweeping families in Syria itself and refugee and migrant communities around the world. This is understandable; too many Syrians were treated unjustly by the security apparatus of that government, with thousands forced into exile or imprisoned amid myriad reports of inhumane treatment.
Many others in Syria are apprehensive about the future, and they are right to be so. From Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen to Libya, time and again armed militias have proven that they can secure military victories. They have also proven that they often govern poorly. Speaking about Syria at the IISS Manama Dialogue earlier today Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE President, was right when he said: "When problems get left unresolved, they get worse ... past events have shown us how important it is to support the national state."
The national state in Syria is changing rapidly and there are new centres of power in this fractured country. The main rebel group that forced Mr Al Assad’s departure – Hayat Tahrir Al Sham – now faces an acid test. It claims to be fighting for a just Syria but its roots in political and religious extremism will reassure few people, especially civilians already wary of the fearsome reputation attached to certain armed factions in the opposition coalition.
The National has argued that the Syrian state must be humane, unitary and robust. The nation cannot continue as a collection of cantons under the sway of various militias and their foreign backers. Given that reality, it is incumbent upon those now on the cusp of power to be the change they claim to be – that means going beyond a mere “rebranding” and proving that they can be responsible administrators. There are signs that this may be possible.
Video has emerged of Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Al Jalali leaving his home in Damascus with rebel fighters for what could be the first meeting between the insurgency’s leaders and what remains of the government. The rebels have said that Mr Al Jalali, who is regarded as a technocrat, could play a temporary supervisory role.
If the rebels can work constructively with the country’s remaining institutions, thereby avoiding the mistakes seen after the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq – when the entire state and military were dismantled, leaving behind a dangerous political vacuum – then a better Syria is, perhaps, possible. But there is a formidable list of problems and potential threats to be addressed.
Decades-old wounds in Syrian society need healing. Syria’s economy is broken, its currency devalued and unemployment is rife. The trade in illegal drugs has flourished for many years. Many Syrians rely on aid to survive and thousands are fleeing across the border into Lebanon, a country that has been attacked and invaded by neighbouring Israel. Potential Israeli moves into Syria would be disastrous. In addition, the UN Security Council heard three days ago that Syria’s reported destruction or conversion of chemical warfare agents remains unverified.
Sudden change in Syria is here and must be reckoned with. A renewed war between opposition factions and the Kurdish-led forces in north-eastern Syria, an extremist quasi-administration in Damascus or indiscriminate revenge carried out against government loyalists would all be catastrophic for Syria. Although it is Syria’s people who must decide their future, the international community must rethink its policy of disengagement and be ready to support peace and reconstruction efforts.
There must be hope that Syrians are able to take their fate into their own hands again. Now may be a moment of uncertainty, but very quickly the time will come for the serious business of restoring Syria to its rightful place as a peaceful, stable and indispensable part of the Arab world.
