Pakistani soldiers outside a voting centre the day before the election. Wakil Kohsar / AFP
Pakistani soldiers outside a voting centre the day before the election. Wakil Kohsar / AFP
Pakistani soldiers outside a voting centre the day before the election. Wakil Kohsar / AFP
Pakistani soldiers outside a voting centre the day before the election. Wakil Kohsar / AFP

Divide and rule: why the Pakistani army stands to gain from stirring rivalries between parties


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If, as expected, Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party wins tomorrow’s election in Pakistan, it will represent a seismic break with 70 years of elections. Apart from brief periods, the country’s prime minister has always been drawn from one of two parties, either the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) or the Pakistan's People's Party (PPP).

Both of those parties are in retreat, with polls suggesting that support for the PML-N is declining while that for the PTI is rising. The two are neck-and-neck. The man most associated with the PML-N, the former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, is in prison; it is his brother Shehbaz who heads the party. The PPP's head is Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, not yet 30 years old and visibly straining under the weight of his family's legacy.

That leaves Khan, a former cricket star, the most charismatic speaker in Pakistani politics but one untested by high office. If he wins tomorrow, it would deliver an unprecedented outcome – a new ruling political party – and fragment the two-party system that has operated since independence.

Yet this breaking of the two-party stranglehold, while positive for Pakistan's democracy, could actually hand more power to the generals who, through the many years of martial law since independence, have held power for almost as long as civilians. It is they above all who stand to benefit from a fragmented political system.

To understand why, it is necessary to understand the role of “electables” in Pakistani politics.

The power of the two main parties has always been rooted in family dynasties, the Bhuttos at the PPP and the Sharifs at the PML-N. But the dynasties do not stand alone; they rely for support on other groups, usually other smaller dynasties, known as electables, who can deliver bloc votes. These electables stand as candidates in elections and bring out their supporters to vote for whichever party they ally with; often, they change parties.

Such patronage politics were brought into sharp focus when Khan, having founded the PTI in 1996 but struggled for years to make in-roads, admitted in the run-up to this election that he had used electables – an acknowledgement of the gritty reality of politics that appear to have brought him within touching distance of becoming prime minister.

The issue is that some electables have a long history with certain parties or candidates, effectively making them more like alliances and very hard to persuade to change parties. That gives political parties a particular cohesiveness, which can serve as a rival power bloc to the army.

But if Khan wins, or makes sufficient gains to enter power through a coalition, it could herald a breaking of the two-party system, which would create a rush for smaller political parties to gain votes by wooing electables.

That would give the army a significant amount of influence, because it could manipulate electables behind the scenes, choosing to boost certain parties or punish others. In that way, anything that weakens the two main parties would actually boost the power of the deep state.

The army has long played a role in Pakistani politics, sometimes behind the scenes, sometimes openly, running the country under General Zia ul-Haq from 1977 and again under Pervez Musharraf from 1999.

The power of the Pakistan military in politics rests on its reputation as the ultimate guarantor of stability in a country with relatively weak institutions. It remains popular with a section of the population, particularly the well-heeled middle class, for whom the rule of law matters a great deal. Whenever there is a feeling that the political class has overreached or is unable to handle a situation – particularly around domestic terrorism – there are calls for the army to intervene or lend a steadying hand.

This gives the army considerable leverage and civil and military relations are a cornerstone of participating in Pakistani politics. Politicians must handle the army, ensuring that they both court them by respecting their privileges, particularly their role in foreign policy, while also seeking to hold them at arm's length from the civilian administration.

The threat, always there in the background, is the possibility of an army coup. Although the army has stepped in several times, it is the decade of martial law under Zia ul-Haq that lingers most in the memory, a brutal decade that saw the prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the father of Benazir, hanged in 1979.

Nawaz Sharif, who was removed as prime minister by the courts last year but remains hugely influential, has tangled with the army several times over a long career. He has been supported by them and toppled by them. There does appear to have been a targeting of PML-N members; arrests, sudden defections and media censorship. That has happened with other political parties too but it appears to have happened less with Khan's party. As always with such accusations, it can be hard to establish the facts.

Yet the army has little reason to pick a particular prime minister, as their sharpest critics allege. Rather, the army's intention is almost certainly to balance the PML-N with the PTI.

It is always in the army's interest to have rival political parties rather than one dominant one. With the PML-N's traditional opponents, the PPP, weakened, it is better for the generals to seek to build up a new rival rather than allow a powerful party to win power.

Khan has said that the best way to control the army is a strong civilian government. If he wins tomorrow, it is not immediately clear that his party could provide it. A pivotal election that could finally end the domination of two political parties might in fact simply hand more power to the unelected generals.

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Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

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Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk

“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”

“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”

“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”

“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”

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Difference between fractional ownership and timeshare

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Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor

Creator: Jenna Lamia

Rating: 3/5

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GROUP RESULTS

Group A
Results

Ireland beat UAE by 226 runs
West Indies beat Netherlands by 54 runs

Group B
Results

Zimbabwe tied with Scotland
Nepal beat Hong Kong by five wickets

Mia Man’s tips for fermentation

- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut

- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.

- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.

- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.

 

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
If you go

The flights Etihad (www.etihad.com) and Spice Jet (www.spicejet.com) fly direct from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Pune respectively from Dh1,000 return including taxes. Pune airport is 90 minutes away by road. 

The hotels A stay at Atmantan Wellness Resort (www.atmantan.com) costs from Rs24,000 (Dh1,235) per night, including taxes, consultations, meals and a treatment package.
 

Why it pays to compare

A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.

Route 1: bank transfer

The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.

Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount

Total received: €4,670.30 

Route 2: online platform

The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.

Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction

Total received: €4,756

The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.