Live updates: Follow the latest on Trump's Gulf trip
US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar could be historic, not only for the Gulf countries, but also for Iran, the countries of the Levant and Israel. This is in large part due to the diplomatic role the Gulf countries have played in the run-up to the trip.
Saudi Arabia’s quiet, behind-the-scenes mediation efforts between the US and Iran are significant, as is Oman’s more public role in pushing these negotiations to a new threshold. Both roles represent a fundamental shift in the dynamics of US-Gulf relations as well as the Washington-Tehran equation.
This is distinct from the approach of previous American administrations, notably that of Barack Obama, which excluded Arab states from the dialogue with Iran. The Obama administration even concluded the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran while sidelining the Arab world's existential interests.
Remarkable is the level of cohesion among the six Gulf countries, as well as the degree of integration, not only locally, but in their relations with several countries in the region and beyond. They have all, for example, carved distinct, yet harmonious, roles in Syria. They all recognise the necessity of keeping Damascus in the Arab fold and have, thus, diligently engaged with its new administration.
The challenge for Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara is to clarify the identity of his country as a civil state, and to demonstrate that he himself has truly moved on from his previous role at the helm of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham and is looking out for the interests of all Syrians. This is what western leaders describe as a “behavioural test” for the Syrian President – whether or not he will persist with his newly adopted path, which necessarily requires him to tackle the threat from ISIS and contain the extremist groups HTS once aligned with.
It is unclear whether his desire to meet Mr Trump in the coming week will materialise, but both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are undoubtedly working hard to achieve a qualitative breakthrough between the Trump administration and Damascus.
Syria is a crucial piece in Mr Trump’s vision for a new Middle East. But for this to unfold, it is vital for Damascus to halt Iran’s resurgence in that country and prevent the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from reclaiming dominance in the Levant. Washington’s desire for normalisation between Israel and the Arab world will depend, to a large extent, on whether the Syrian-Israeli and Lebanese-Israeli borders can be delineated. Thus, the possibility of a meeting between the US and Syrian presidents could be on the table.
Lebanon’s future, too, is on the US-Gulf agenda. American efforts to help that country make the transition into a normal state are clear, as are Gulf efforts. Syria’s relationship with Lebanon remains under the microscope. As Beirut seeks to rebuild the state, Mr Al Shara needs to expedite the Syrian-Lebanese border demarcation process. The link between Syrian and Lebanese peace tracks with Israel has already been practically severed, but their simultaneity remains plausible though it follows from objective reality rather than a diktat from Damascus.
It is crucial that Mr Trump applies pressure on Israel to resolve its issues with Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.
The US President appears prepared to force Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make concessions on certain issues. But Mr Trump is reportedly displeased with Mr Netanyahu over the latter’s methods of exerting pressure on him through Congress and key members of his administration. Yet this will not lead to an estrangement between the US and Israel, and one should not read too much into this tense phase in relations between their leaders.
Amid all this, Saudi Arabia remains consistent in its position on normalising relations with Israel – which will happen only if Israel accepts a Palestinian state. Riyadh is ready to play its part in the “Deal of the Century” that Mr Trump is pushing, but only if he can pressure Mr Netanyahu to stop his war in Gaza and begin negotiations. Hence, there is talk of a potential Trump announcement of a Gaza plan during his visit.
Arab diplomacy is working to pave the way for a shift in the Palestinian file, with Qatar and Egypt making efforts to persuade Hamas that the time has come for it to dismantle its Gaza project. The Gulf states are, meanwhile, pressing the Palestinian Authority to sort its own house and rise to the level of the moment’s challenges.
Mr Trump’s visit represents a historic opportunity for Iran, too, if its leadership knows how to seize it. Indeed, it is time for Tehran to modify its doctrine and abandon the use of proxies as tentacles stretching across the Arab world like an octopus.
The Houthi deal with the US earlier this month is proof that Washington is determined to continue cutting off these tentacles. This also helps refocus the US-Iran negotiations on the nuclear and ballistic missile files. There is no need now to discuss Tehran’s severed arms, as they are no longer strong, but this does not mean an agreement – should it materialise – will be limited to the nuclear file, as Tehran claims. Any deal will effectively strip it of its proxy network if it truly wishes to board the forward-moving regional train under a joint American-regional leadership.
It’s important to point out that during his visit, Mr Trump will not simply focus on regional politics and security. Investment and business deals will also be signed. Such agreements are at the core of what the US President defines as a strategic relationship – something he intends to highlight in the coming days.
The question, then, is whether other powers in the region – most notably Iran – are willing to respond positively to the US’s overtures and join the superpower in its renewed push for a new Middle East.
