US President Donald Trump will arrive in Beijing on Wednesday for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on a visit originally designed to reset trade ties but now expected to be dominated by the war in Iran.
The state visit, scheduled for May 14-15, will mark the first visit to China by a sitting US president in nearly a decade. It had originally been planned for late March, but Mr Trump postponed it, saying it wouldn't be right to leave during the war with Iran.
“Because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here,” Mr Trump said at the time. The war is still not over, but the trip is going ahead. On Monday, Mr Trump said he expects discussions to focus on Taiwan, energy and Iran.
“I look forward to being there,” he said. “He [Mr Xi] will bring up Taiwan, I think more than I will. But I think the discussion will be a little bit about energy, and about the very beautiful country of Iran.” He added that he has a "great relationship" with Mr Xi.
A senior US official, speaking on background, said Mr Trump will address China's financial support for Iran and Russia, as well as "dual-use goods" – components and parts which could be used for weapons exports. "I expect that conversation to continue," the official said.
The White House has described the summit as strategically important for trade, artificial intelligence, fentanyl co-operation and broader US-China political and trade relations. Deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said agreements are expected on aerospace, agriculture and energy, as well as continued work on a US-China board of trade and board of investment.
"This will be a visit of tremendous symbolic significance," Ms Kelly told journalists on a call. "But of course, President Trump never travels for symbolism alone." She said Mr Trump would host Mr Xi for a reciprocal visit in Washington later this year.
Experts say Mr Trump is expected to press China to reduce its purchases of Iranian oil as part of the US's effort to increase economic pressure on Tehran.
“China might hold a key, but I don’t think China has the ability to dictate what Iran can or cannot do,” Yun Sun, a China expert at the Stimson Centre, told The National.
As Tehran’s biggest oil buyer, China is more likely to position itself as a mediator rather than a power capable of forcing de-escalation, and will use this trip to stabilise the bilateral relationship. “China can assist. But there’s no guarantee,” Ms Sun said.
The visit comes during a stalemate in the conflict. Mr Trump said on Monday that the ceasefire with Iran is "on life support" after he dismissed Iran's response to a US peace proposal.
"I would call it the weakest right now, after reading that piece of garbage they sent us. I didn't even finish reading it," he told reporters.
In recent weeks, Mr Trump has been under domestic pressure to end the war he started alongside Israel in late February, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Iran effectively closed it. The closure of the vital waterway has rattled global energy markets, including in the US and China.
"In Hormuz, they get a big percentage – 40 per cent of [China's] oil. There’s been no ships coming in, no nasty ships coming in,” Mr Trump said.
Though China has strong incentives to see the conflict end, it has also been better positioned than many other countries to absorb the disruption.
Analysts note that China has spent years diversifying its energy imports and building reserves, helping cushion it against the economic fallout from the conflict. Beijing has also moved to offset disruptions in Gulf supplies by increasing imports from countries including Brazil and Angola.
John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, downplayed the idea that China would take on a major mediating role in the conflict, saying such a move would be a significant departure from Beijing’s traditional foreign policy approach.
“If China were to take on a more visible, high-profile, substantive role as a mediator, that would really be an anomaly,” he said. “The likelihood of that happening is very low.”
Instead, Mr Calabrese said Beijing is likely to use the crisis to strengthen its image as a responsible global power, in contrast to the US. He said Chinese officials increasingly portray their country as focused on “building things like infrastructure” while criticising what they see as American “hegemonic military adventurism”.
“In terms of casting themselves as different from the United States, the way America has misplayed its hand has provided China with a gift,” he said.
Allen Carlson, associate professor in Cornell University’s Government Department, said the summit is likely to produce symbolic victories rather than major breakthroughs on trade or Iran. On trade and tariffs, he said a truce will be declared, with little substantive change going forward.
Mr Carlson said China is likely to offer Mr Trump enough diplomatic flexibility to publicly frame the summit as a success, while quietly maintaining its existing positions on trade and avoiding deeper involvement in the Middle East conflict.
“Beijing will talk up diplomacy, but demur from getting more directly involved," he said. "Both leaders will smile for the cameras, but little will have changed on the issues.”
