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As the war between the US, Israel and Iran rattled the Gulf, China found itself navigating one of its most delicate foreign policy tests in years: how to preserve its strategic partnership with Tehran while safeguarding far larger economic and energy stakes across the Gulf.
Beijing’s response highlighted a defining feature of its Middle East policy – pragmatic balancing rather than alliance politics.
When the Iran war erupted in February, China was quick to condemn US-Israeli strikes on Iran and urged for an immediate ceasefire. It said it “resolutely" opposed and “strongly” condemned the Killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It also abstained from voting on a UN Security Council Resolution last month that condemned Iranian attacks on Gulf states and Jordan, passing with 13 votes in favour. Russia also abstained, while no country voted against the draft.
However, even as China spoke in defence of Iran and called for an end to the fighting, it stopped short of providing military support to Tehran.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry dismissed on Tuesday US media reports indicating that China is providing military support to Iran, saying Beijing acts “prudently and responsibly” in the export of such supplies. A ministry spokesperson said China exercises strict controls on military exports in line with domestic laws and international obligations.
Zhou Rong, director of the Global South Countries Studies Centre at Grandview Institution of China, told The National that China would not supply weapons to a country under UN sanctions, describing the claims as “misinformation”. “Beijing has never acted in that way,” he said.
“China has emphasised political neutrality and positioned itself as a potential mediator, while prioritising stability in energy markets and supply chains,” Mr Zhou added.
He noted that China distinguishes between its relationships: Iran is viewed primarily as a strategic and energy partner, while the Gulf states are treated as key economic partners. “We have multiple regional headquarters of Chinese companies stationed in the UAE, but we do not have a single headquarters of large-scale companies in Tehran or other parts of Iran. We would never agree to any kind of attack against the UAE or Saudi Arabia,” he explained.
In 2023, China brokered a historic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, a breakthrough widely seen at the time as evidence of President Xi Jinping’s growing clout in the region. The two countries perceive China as a neutral mediator, and China views itself as a reliable “friend” to both.
The agreement, however, faced its biggest test during the Iran war, as Tehran launched retaliatory attacks against the kingdom and other Gulf states. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said last month that trust with Iran had “completely shattered”.
Deepening economic footprint
China’s economic presence in the Gulf has expanded rapidly over the past years. The country has amassed about $270 billion worth of investments and construction projects in the Middle East over the past two decades, according to the American Enterprise Institute's China Global Investment Tracker.
These investments span ports, industrial zones, energy infrastructure and technology partnerships, many linked to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
The Gulf has become central to China’s long-term energy security. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are among its top suppliers of crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Major logistics hubs such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi also serve as key nodes in China’s global trade network.
Last week, China's envoy to the UN Fu Cong laid out in an X post his country's desire to balance both sides' perspectives. Mr Fu wrote that the US and Israeli air strikes were a "clear violation" of international norms, while calling for "shipping lanes and energy infrastructure" to be safeguarded, in a thinly veiled rebuke of Tehran.
“China has maintained deliberate ambiguity, prioritising stable energy flows from the entire Gulf over any ideological alignment with Iran,” said Neil Quilliam, associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank in the UK.
“It has quietly sustained Iran through indirect oil purchases while publicly calling for de-escalation. It has used a typical transactional approach to preserve relationships with both sides without committing fully to either.”
China, the world’s largest energy importer, has so far weathered the global energy shock from the Gulf war better than some of its Asian peers.
“China has built up large oil reserves over the last year that provide a cushion,” Justin Alexander, a Gulf economist and non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, told The National.
“The war is also leading to a surge in global demand for Chinese EVs and renewables tech, which, along with the geopolitical benefits from the rift the war has caused between the US and its allies, may mean that China isn’t too bothered about the short-term energy supply impact,” he added.
But with global energy markets volatile amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and a new American military blockade threatening Iranian exports, the stakes are rising for Beijing.
China is the largest importer of Iranian oil, making it particularly exposed to any disruption in supply flows linked to US enforcement actions.
Beijing issued its most forceful criticism yet of US action, calling the blockade “dangerous and irresponsible”. President Xi said on Tuesday the world must not be allowed to “revert to the law of the jungle”.
Since the war began, Iran has effectively shut the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route to vessels it deems from unfriendly nations. On Monday, the US military began a blockade of Iran's ports, accusing Tehran of "economic terrorism".
Gulf hedging intensifies
Analysts say the US remains the region’s primary security guarantor, with unmatched military capabilities, defence partnerships and a long-standing presence on the ground. However, economic ties with China are deepening.
The UAE, in particular, has said it will double down on its strategic partnership with Washington following the Iran war. But economic relations with China continue to expand in parallel.
Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, travelled to China this week, where he witnessed the signing of 24 agreements between the UAE and China to strengthen bilateral trade, investment and economic co-operation. He also met Mr Xi during the visit.
“Gulf militaries have been configured around US military equipment for decades, including the critical interceptors, so I don’t see that changing. But they will diversify their partnerships – Ukraine, Turkey and notably Pakistan – although I doubt they will look to China in this area,” said Mr Alexander. “Commercial ties with China will remain strong and probably continue to deepen,” he added.
Mr Quilliam said the Gulf’s dual reliance on US security guarantees and Chinese economic ties is becoming more strained, but will persist.
“Recent conflicts have weakened trust in Washington, prompting Gulf states to hedge more seriously and invest in their own defence capabilities. While the US remains indispensable militarily, its dominance is no longer unquestioned.”
