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The US and other powers are failing to adequately engage with Iran's opposition movement and its vast diaspora to plan for what happens once the war ends, a prominent Iranian American has warned.
America's focus has been on wiping out the Iranian military, but with the war approaching the one-month mark, it remains unclear who Washington wants in control in Tehran when the bombing stops.
Mehrdad Marty Youssefiani, who is helping organise a conference in London next weekend for hundreds of Iranian opposition figures, said those attending had heard nothing meaningful from the West.
“We’re in touch with every major name, brand, group, ethnicity, any entity that claims any relevance to the Iranian political universe,” he told The National on Monday.
“We're in touch with them, and there has been no serious attention or patronage given to anybody by any world power, including Washington and arguably Israel and the Europeans.
“Political solutions are typically studied and worked on before military actions. I remain concerned that not enough nurturing has been offered to the Iranian opposition spectrum, domestically or in exile.”
Mr Youssefiani is a founding member of the Iran Freedom Congress, which meets in London on March 28 and 29.
As many as 300 people are expected in person or remotely, including representatives of political parties in exile and ethnic minority groups such as Kurds, Balochs, Turks and Ahwazi Arabs.
Mr Youssefiani said that not since the 1979 revolution have so many Iranian groups representing so many interests come together in this way.
He added that he has been liaising with Trump administration and congressional officials.
“I see it as a big, red-flag danger that there is no viable serious effort to engage, even if it stands a 5 per cent chance, with the political process,” he said.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Time running out?
US President Donald Trump claimed on Monday that he has held “productive conversations” with Tehran, and postponed military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. But Tehran responded by denying it had been holding talks with the US.
Mr Trump said he was speaking to a “top person” in the Iranian regime, but not supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, about whom Mr Trump said: “We don't know if he's living."
Mr Youssefiani, who worked for nearly two decades as the chief of staff for Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s deposed shah, is concerned that the war is creating fissures among opposition groups.
“The heavy pressures of war has seriously affected the elasticity of the opposition's commitment and capacity to exercise real pluralism,” he said. “That is something that we're trying to get a handle on, keeping everyone together.”
He explained that he wanted all sides, including the movement around Mr Pahlavi, to be prepared to embrace the notion of pluralism “in its truest sense”.
Mr Youssefiani also warned that time is not on the Trump administration's side. While the US and Israeli air war was greeted with initial enthusiasm, each passing day the regime remain in power increases anxiety. “The longer regime collapse takes, with neither liberty nor safety nor security on the horizon, any population will start to question,” he said.
