Dozens of world leaders are set to descend on New York for the 80th UN General Assembly, convening under a cloud of geopolitical upheaval. Diplomats are already bracing for Gaza to dominate the agenda, while momentous changes in Syria and Israel's strikes against Iran and other countries will also loom large.
A French-Saudi conference on the two-state solution will be held on Monday and is expected to result in France, the UK and other nations formalising their recognition of Palestine. Last week, 142 countries in the UN General Assembly endorsed a French and Saudi road map for Palestinian statehood, despite Israeli and US objections.
The war, started by Hamas’s October 2023 attack on southern Israel, has dragged on for almost two years with no end in sight.
Israel’s continuing offensive has destroyed much of the Gaza Strip and left more than 65,000 dead. The conflict has fuelled global outrage. Yet despite countless Security Council debates, resolutions and mediation, the UN has failed to secure a ceasefire.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will not attend the UNGA in person after the US refused him a visa, sparking sharp criticism at the UN. Mr Abbas is expected to address the two-state summit and deliver his speech on Thursday next week by video link.
When asked by The National whether he agreed with US and Israeli assessments that the growing number of states recognising Palestine was a “gift to Hamas”, Secretary General Antonio Guterres said: “The two-state solution is not something that is in Hamas's programme. It is a gift to the Palestinian people that have suffered also a lot, also because of Hamas.”
Some diplomats stressed that the real priority should be what happens after the war ends, finding a concrete path towards a two-state solution, and cautioned against seeing the recognition conference as a final outcome rather than a step in the process.
Without enforcement, it was at risk of being another paper declaration, said one UN diplomat.
“A lot of focus will be on the day after and what is needed, not only to get to the two-state solution but also how it's managed.”
There will also be last-minute diplomacy in the hallways of the world body over Iran's nuclear programme, as it seeks to avoid a return of all UN Security Council sanctions on September 28.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are both expected to attend the UNGA, which comes months after the US and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets.
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is set to arrive in New York on Thursday and deliver his address to the General Assembly on Friday before heading to Washington on Sunday.
Israel’s UN envoy Danny Danon told reporters on Thursday Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be meeting Syria’s new leader Ahmad Al Shara during next week’s UN gathering, though he confirmed that talks regarding security are under way with Damascus.
“It will be interesting to hear the words of the new president of Syria when he comes to town next week, to hear his words about the future of the region,” he added.
Trump returns to the UN stage
US President Donald Trump’s return to the UN is also set to dominate this year’s high-level week in New York. While he has called the world body a place of “great potential”, he is expected to use his speech to press Mr Guterres to act more forcefully in quelling conflicts, defending state sovereignty and protecting free expression.
During his second term, Mr Trump has pulled the US out of Unesco, halted funding to the Palestinian relief agency UNRWA, frozen ties with the Human Rights Council, and moved to withdraw from the Paris climate pact and the World Health Organisation.
Those decisions have deepened humanitarian strains worldwide and raised questions over the UN’s future, pushing Mr Guterres to pursue cost-cutting and efficiency.
Mike Waltz, Mr Trump's nominee for US ambassador to the UN, still has not been confirmed by the Senate and it is unclear whether he will be before the General Assembly gets going.
Washington’s temporary UN envoy Dorothy Shea outlined US priorities before the assembly, calling for “transparent, accountable and results-driven” peacekeeping operations, with measurable progress and tighter budget controls.
Ms Shea warned that the US “will not tolerate efforts to suppress these freedoms whether through censorship, internet shutdowns or silencing political opposition”.
Mr Trump is due to deliver his General Assembly address on the morning of September 23, followed by a bilateral meeting with Mr Guterres.
A crisis of relevance
Beyond the Gaza war and Mr Trump’s showmanship lies a deeper question: where is the UN headed at 80?
Diplomats said a worsening “liquidity crisis” hangs over the General Assembly, the result of member states failing to pay their dues on time or in full.
As part of his UN80 initiative, Mr Guterres has proposed a 15 per cent cut to the regular budget starting in 2026, reducing it to $3.238 billion and eliminating 2,681 posts at the world body.
The cuts would affect all three pillars of the UN’s work: peace and security; human rights; and sustainable development – although programmes for the least developed countries would be protected.
Meanwhile, the UN’s humanitarian agencies are under immense strain. Funding is drying up as climate disasters multiply, refugee numbers reach historic highs, and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals slip further out of reach.
The General Assembly is expected to vote on the budget plan before the end of the year.
