Live updates: Follow the latest news on Iran war
US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran would be extended indefinitely has removed a hard – although disputed – deadline but done little to resolve underlying uncertainty about whether the truce can hold.
In the meantime, Pakistan, the chief mediator in talks between Washington and Tehran, harbours a slender hope that the second round of negotiations – which were expected on Tuesday but were abruptly called off – can be revived quickly.
The National understands that some staff in Pakistani ministries involved in the peace talks process were told on Wednesday morning to wait 48 hours to see whether negotiations can be revived.
The Marriott hotel, which was expected to host the Iranian delegation, told The National it would remain closed to the public until Friday. The Serena, which will probably be the base for the American side, said it would stay shut until Saturday.
Islamabad’s diplomatic quarter and surrounding areas remain sealed off. These signals suggest Pakistan remains prepared for talks to take place this week, however unlikely they may seem.
Even if both delegations return to Islamabad, a deal will not come easily. A Pakistani official told The National that one of the main obstacles is a “sequencing problem” concerning which issues, such as sanctions relief or a rollback of Iran’s nuclear programme, are agreed first.
In his announcement of the ceasefire extension, Mr Trump claimed Iran's government is “seriously fractured”, and that the extension was requested by Pakistan to allow Tehran time to “come up with a unified proposal”.
Internal pressure within Iran not to be seen as capitulating to American demands are a significant factor, the Pakistani official said, noting a feeling of exasperation among many Pakistani civil servants tasked with bridging the gap.
“It’s not that diplomacy has collapsed anywhere,” the official said. “It’s that both sides are waiting for the other to blink first.”
Mr Trump appeared to suggest on Wednesday that talks might yet take place this week, telling the New York Post "it's possible" when asked about a timeframe of "36 to 72 hours" for negotiations to resume.
For Pakistan, the determination to see a deal is not just a result of its close ties with both the US and Iran, but also its own strategic self-interest. Islamabad views the survival of Iran’s current government as a matter of national security.
Of Pakistan’s four neighbours – India, Afghanistan, Iran and China – the relationship with India has long been hostile. Islamabad remains in a state of war with Kabul over alleged support for Pakistani insurgent groups.
If the regime in Tehran were to be replaced by the US and – most worrying for Islamabad – Israel, which Pakistan does not recognise, Islamabad could find itself surrounded on three sides by adversarial states.
Pakistan’s government is already wary of a perceived growing alliance between India and Afghanistan, and deeply concerned about close ties between India and Israel. One source close to the Pakistani army told The National that, during the first round of talks, there was concern over possible Indian and Israeli attempts to spoil the process.
Iran has not agreed publicly to Mr Trump’s open-ended ceasefire extension and, on Wednesday, Iran’s navy seized two cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the extension “means nothing” and that the US blockade is “no different from bombardment and must be met with a military response”. Iran’s UN envoy said talks can resume only once the blockade is lifted.
On the ground in Islamabad, the impact of the stalemate is visible. Areas of the capital and neighbouring Rawalpindi have been under lockdown since Sunday, with more than 10,000 security personnel deployed. Many of the cities’ residents have missed work, travel and classes.
The ceasefire extension, for all its ambiguity, may represent the best Islamabad could extract from a situation that was rapidly slipping beyond its control. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Mr Trump for “graciously accepting our request to extend the ceasefire” and said Pakistan would “continue its earnest efforts for a negotiated settlement”. Whether Tehran and Washington share that patience remains to be seen.
