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When Donald Trump extended a ceasefire at the 11th hour, he seized the moment to describe Iran’s leadership as divided. It is a characterisation critics will see as justification for stalled diplomacy, but that has been increasingly borne out since the war began on February 28.
“Based on the fact that the government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so … we have been asked to hold our attack on the country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal,” Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social, also announcing the ceasefire extension.
The statement will be read by his opponents as political framing, or self-serving vindication for stalled diplomacy, but it also reflects a reality increasingly noted by observers.
The US-Israeli bombing campaign has severely weakened the Islamic Republic, killing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the opening day of the war and triggering a struggle for influence among competing hardline factions.
What was once carefully managed internal tension has become something more visible: public fragmentation.
The rupture was exposed in the hours after Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf returned from talks with a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad on April 11 and 12. Mr Araghchi posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz was reopening to commercial shipping during the ceasefire. It was a statement Mr Trump immediately pounced on, casting it as a diplomatic win.
Hardline backlash
The backlash from hardliners in Iran was swift. Mehr news agency, aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said Mr Araghchi’s X post had created confusion and effectively allowed Mr Trump to “declare himself the winner of the war”.
Tasnim news agency called it a “bad and incomplete tweet” that failed to clarify conditions governing transit. Fars news outlet cited restrictions reportedly imposed by the Supreme National Security Council and warned that incoherent messaging had left the public in “a state of confusion”, calling for a unified communications framework before further statements are made.
That followed Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s retraction of an apology to Gulf neighbours for missile and drone attacks.
Iran analyst
“I deem it necessary to apologise to neighbouring countries that were attacked,” Mr Pezeshkian said on March 7. “We do not intend to invade neighbouring countries.” The next day, however, he said his remarks were “misinterpreted by the enemy that seeks to sow division with neighbours”, Iranian state television reported.
The divisions were clear to see yet again in the lead-up to a second round of US-Iran talks scheduled to be held in the Pakistani capital, with several sources saying the IRGC was pushing back against Mr Ghalibaf and Mr Araghchi’s plans to attend.
These episodes capture a deeper crisis: Iran no longer speaks with one voice and its rivals are watching closely.
“While Iran’s government has shown a degree of institutional functionality during the war, it is clearly struggling to manage something far more complex: negotiations with the United States over the regime’s core policies,” said Omid Memarian, senior Iran analyst at Dawn, a think tank based in Washington focused on reforming US foreign policy in the Middle East.
“The absence of Ali Khamenei, the figure who traditionally settled major disputes, has exposed internal divisions that were previously contained,” he told The National. “Hardliners seeking a larger role in postwar Iran are increasingly at odds with officials who see [Ali] Khamenei’s confrontational approach as unsustainable in the long term.”
But with the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, yet to be seen in public and appearing to lack the authority of his late father, who will emerge with the most power?
IRGC power rising
Even before the war, the IRGC was expected to become more powerful after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death. Under the late supreme leader, the force had grown beyond being merely a parallel army whose remit was protecting the system put in place by the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Over time, the IRGC has evolved into a powerful military force, intelligence service and economic conglomerate. Its Basij militia has been used to suppress domestic dissent, while the Quds Force has spread influence beyond Iran’s borders.
The killing of its commander, Mohammad Pakpour, on the opening day of the war was not a setback in the way some anticipated. His position was taken by Ahmad Vahidi, who now appears to play a central role in decision-making.
Despite Mr Trump’s repeated claims of having forced regime change in Iran, those who have emerged in place of the slain leadership appear, in many cases, to be more hardline than those they replaced.
