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Iran will continue attacking cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, shutting it to all shipping in retaliation for the US blockade, naval experts told The National after Tehran's armed seizure of freighters on Wednesday
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy fired rocket-propelled grenades and machineguns at three ships as they were crossing the strait, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said.
North-east of Oman, the Liberia-flagged Epaminondas container ship sustained damage to its bridge after being struck by gunfire from a boat with three suspected members of the IRGC on board.
A second container ship, the Euphoria, was fired on about 14km west of Iran but was not damaged. A third, the Francesca, was attacked in the same area while crossing the strait. Both are Panama-flagged.
The IRGC navy has said two ships were directed to Iranian waters and seized for operating without the required permits and tampering with navigation systems. Both vessels allegedly attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz while withholding AIS transponder signals.
It is now clear that Iran will mount similar attacks in an attempt to stop all shipping, former British Royal Navy commander Tom Sharpe said.
“Iran can't keep controlling the strait by doing nothing, so they have to keep that drumbeat ticking over because eventually ships are going to start running the gauntlet,” Mr Sharpe said.
He pointed to at least four cruise liner ships that managed to escape over the weekend, and that the attacks were probably Tehran's retaliation after the US used gunfire to disable the Iranian MV Touska on Saturday before marines rappelled from helicopters on to its deck.
“Iran will just keep this ticking over, because this latest round will have insurers thinking ‘is it worth it?’ So we'll see the drumbeat, one or two attacks a week just to remind everyone that they still have the whip hand, particularly if the negotiations are ongoing,” Mr Sharpe said.
It will be difficult to make Iran stop the attacks despite the three US aircraft carriers, two marine carriers and up to 15 destroyers in the area, along with submarines, Mr Sharpe added.
The US imposed a blockade on Iranian ports on April 13 in the hope that preventing Tehran from exporting its oil would force concessions during on peace negotiations.
But the IRGC is understood to have hundreds of fast attack craft, armed with surface-to-surface missiles, as well as many more smaller speedboats such as the ones thought to have been used in Wednesday’s attacks.
Iran also has jetskis, which can be hidden in garages close to the water.
“Merchant shipping is advised to reconsider Strait of Hormuz transits,” said Joshua Hutchinson of Ambrey Maritime Risk. “Iran maintains control over the strait and is showcasing intent and capability to act against civilian shipping.”
