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Iran will continue attacking cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, shutting it to all shipping in retaliation for the US blockade following Tehran's armed seizure of freighters on Wednesday, naval experts have told The National.
The IRGC navy fired on three vessels transiting the narrow waterway using rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns to force them to stop, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said.
The Liberian-flagged Epaminondas container ship sustained damage to its bridge after being struck by gunfire north-east of Oman by a boat with three suspected members of the IRGC on board.
A second container ship, the Euphoria, was fired on about 14km west of Iran but was not damaged. A third, the Francesca, was attacked in the same area while also sailing out of the strait. Both are Panama flagged.
The IRGC navy has stated that two vessels were directed to Iranian waters and seized for operating without the required permits and tampering with navigation systems. Both vessels allegedly attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz while withholding AIS transponder signals.
It was now clear that Iran will attempt to stop all shipping by mounting similar attacks regularly, said former UK Royal Navy commander Tom Sharpe.
“Iran can't keep controlling the strait by doing nothing, so they have to keep that drumbeat ticking over because eventually ships are going to start running the gauntlet,” Mr Sharpe said.
He pointed to at least four cruise liner ships that managed to escape over the weekend and that it was also likely retaliation for the US using gunfire to disable the Iranian MV Touska on Saturday with marines rappelling from helicopters on to its deck.
“Iran will just keep this ticking over, because this latest round will have insurers thinking ‘is it worth it?’ So we'll see the drumbeat, one or two attacks a week just to remind everyone that they still have the whip hand, particularly if the negotiations are ongoing,” said Mr Sharpe.
It will also be difficult to make Iran stop the attacks despite the US’s “pretty major muscle moves” of three aircraft carriers, two US marine carriers and up to 15 destroyers plus submarines now assembling in the area.
The US blockade has been in place since Monday April 13 with Washington hoping that by preventing Iran from exporting its oil it will concede ground on peace negotiations.
But the IRGC is understood to have hundreds of what are called fast attack craft, that carry surface-to-surface missiles as well as many more smaller speedboats such as the ones likely used in Wednesday’s attacks.
Furthermore there a number of high speed jet skis that have been turned into suicide attack weapons which can be hidden in garages close to the water.
“Merchant shipping is advised to reconsider Strait of Hormuz transits,” said Joshua Hutchinson of Ambrey Maritime Risk. “Iran maintains control over the Strait and is showcasing intent and capability to act against civilian shipping.”
