Lebanon’s economy, battered by a renewed devastating war that has killed hundreds of people and displaced nearly one million, can still recover in the long term, the country’s economy minister has said.
Minister Amer Bisat told The National that the conflict, now in its second week, is already taking a heavy toll on productive sectors and the broader economy, although the full scale of the damage remains unclear.
“The situation is challenging. There’s no question about it,” he said. “We’re going through a very sensitive security but also political moment that does have an impact on the economy.”
After more than a week of intense Israeli strikes across the country targeting Hezbollah, the conflict has killed more than 500 people and forced nearly one million residents from their homes in a country of roughly six million people, creating a major humanitarian emergency.
“In macroeconomic terms, it’s too early to tell,” the minister said. “We don’t yet have the data, but presumably the economy will be impacted negatively by the crisis.”
Early signs of strain are already visible in several sectors, particularly those dependent on stability and mobility.
The economy was already suffering from a deep financial crisis and the aftermath of the previous war between Israel and Hezbollah, which devastated large parts of the country and left reconstruction costs estimated in the billions.
“You’re seeing it already in terms of productive sectors,” explained Mr Bisat. “We don’t have the data yet, but the productive sectors are hurting, obviously, because of the security situation.”
Despite the immediate crisis, the minister said Lebanon still possesses structural advantages that could support a long-term recovery once stability returns. “I continue to be somewhat hopeful that this economy can recover,” he affirmed. “It has advantages that are unique.”
Among them is Lebanon’s highly educated workforce and globally connected population. “It still has a population that is extremely well educated, very well trained and extremely well connected globally,” he said.
Lebanon’s large diaspora also remains a crucial economic asset. “It has a diaspora that is willing to consume in Lebanon, invest in Lebanon, visit Lebanon and open doors for Lebanon,” the minister said.
Beyond its internal strengths, Lebanon could also benefit from broader economic transformation across the region in the coming years, despite the current American and Israeli war on Iran.
“The region is transforming and modernising,” he said. “You see it in the reforms, the investments and the modernisation that are occurring across many countries.”
Developments in neighbouring Syria could also have direct implications for Lebanon’s economic future, he added. “Syria is a very important transformation that has direct positive links to Lebanon,” the minister said. “Syria’s success is Lebanon’s success.”
However, he stressed that these prospects remain part of longer-term strategic thinking and are secondary to the urgent priority of managing the current war.
“Obviously, the priority right now is getting out of the crisis,” he said.
The government is currently focused on managing the humanitarian and economic consequences of the conflict. Authorities have relocated about 120,000 displaced people into roughly 520 schools and emergency shelters across the country.
“It’s a tragic situation. Nobody is underestimating how tragic this is,” he said.
The UN said on Tuesday that 667,000 people had registered as displaced amid the renewed fighting and Israeli air strikes on the south, Beirut's southern suburbs, and the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon.
Israel kept up heavy strikes on the southern Beirut area, known as Dahiyeh, overnight and into Wednesday, sending columns of smoke over the capital.
On Wednesday morning, Israel carried out a rare strike on central Beirut for the second time in four days. Footage showed heavy damage to two floors of an apartment block in the Aicha Bakkar neighbourhood, and smoke rising from the building. Four people were wounded in the strike, the Lebanese health ministry said.
Lebanon's National News Agency reported further strikes in southern Lebanon throughout Wednesday, including on the towns of Qabrikha, Kafra, Yater, Beit Yahoun, Kounin, Al Sama'iyah and Deir Antar. One person was reported injured after a drone strike on a motorcycle in the town of Haris.
Government agencies are working to provide housing, food assistance and financial support to those affected by the conflict, while the health ministry has expanded emergency medical services for the injured and displaced. “The health ministry has been fairly assertive in providing emergency medical support but also continuing health services in the areas where refugees are present,” he said.
For its part, the economy ministry is also working to ensure the continued supply of essential goods, particularly food and fuel.
“At the Ministry of Economy, we’re spending a significant amount of effort to ensure there is enough food supply, energy supply and bread,” he said. “We are also monitoring prices to make sure there is no monopoly.”
Crisis management, the minister added, requires addressing humanitarian needs while keeping basic economic systems functioning.
“The priority right now is the emergency response and the displaced people,” he elaborated. “You manage a crisis by looking at the humanitarian aspect, the economic aspect and the social services, particularly health.”
While acknowledging the gravity of the conflict, Mr Bisat said the government’s goal is to limit the damage and maintain essential services until the country can emerge from the crisis.
“This is a major crisis,” he repeated. “But what we are trying to do is manage the consequences and the implications.”
