Iran fears erosion of last regional proxy as Iraq moves to curb militias

Analysis: Tehran's 'Axis of Resistance' severely weakened by conflicts with Israel

Members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces. Iran denies involvement in the PMF's decision-making. AFP

Iran was monitoring Iraq’s parliamentary elections closely, as polls featured a strong showing for Shiite-majority coalitions aligned with Tehran and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani’s bloc emerged as the front-runner.

Tehran issued congratulatory messages. The celebratory tone stems in part from Mr Al Sudani’s political alliances with figures tied to the Popular Mobilisation Forces.

Yet this optimism has been tempered by growing concerns in Tehran about Baghdad’s push to integrate parts of the PMF into the Iraqi military or curb their autonomy. Such reforms could weaken Tehran’s most reliable allied force at a time when its broader Axis of Resistance network is under strain.

Iraq sits uncomfortably between two powerful rivals. The US wants the influence of militia groups curtailed to limit Iran’s reach, while Tehran views those same groups as a protective barrier against pressure from Washington and Israel. Iraq maintains close ties with both sides, hosting US forces at military bases while sustaining security and trade links with Iran.

Mr Al Sudani's Reconstruction and Development Coalition won the highest number of votes in the elections. The Iran-backed Co-ordination Framework has said it would form a majority bloc. Pro-Iranian Shiite blocs – such as Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coalition and Hadi Al Amiri’s Fatah Alliance – together command more than 170 parliamentary seats, keeping PMF-aligned groups embedded in any workable coalition.

PMF remains a 'buffer'

The PMF is an umbrella group of mainly Iran-backed Shiite militias. It is run by the Iraqi state and includes factions not linked to Tehran, instead receiving orders from holy shrines and others.

For Tehran, though, the PMF’s strategic value has never been greater. Iran’s Axis of Resistance, a network of allied groups across the region, has been battered. Hamas has lost control of Gaza and is now under pressure to disarm. Hezbollah’s command structure has been degraded by Israel’s offensive and a ceasefire that mandates disarmament. Bashar Al Assad’s downfall has severed Iran’s Syrian land corridor and Yemen’s Houthis have suffered heavy US–Israeli bombardment - though they retain missile capabilities.

Members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces. Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani has political alliances with figures tied to the PMF. AFP

Hezbollah has also been heavily damaged by its war with Israel, while the November 2024 ceasefire mandates the disarmament of the Lebanese group. In Syria, the downfall of former president Bashar Al Assad has weakened Iranian influence and Yemen’s Houthis have faced strikes from the US and Israel, although the group still has the capacity to carry out missile attacks.

Analysts see a pattern. Nearly every major group aligned with Iran is under pressure. “The PMF in Iraq is like Hezbollah in Lebanon, embedded in society and seen as a protector. The US may apply formal pressure to disarm, but Israel is behind all of this,” Iran-based commentator Ashkan Mombeini said.

Elements within the PMF stand out as Tehran’s least-damaged asset – politically entrenched and militarily unbroken. Any push to disarm or attack the groups, observers say, could erode Iran’s last reliable regional buffer. “Any harm to it is viewed in Tehran as a direct blow,” Middle East analyst Ali Mousavi Khalkhali said. "Their presence constrains both Israel and the 2,500 US troops still in Iraq.”

Iranian arms

Throughout the election campaign, Mr Al Sudani promoted an “Iraq-first” message, calling for the disarmament of non-state actors. He acknowledged efforts to prevent militia groups from escalating the June conflict between Iran and Israel, saying Iraqi forces blocked several planned attacks on US bases.

Mr Khalkhali told The National that, while Mr Al Sudani is trying to maintain a balancing act, he is gradually tilting towards Washington to “keep America satisfied". Baghdad is "effectively gambling on a deeper strategic partnership with the US", Mr Khalkhali added.

Militia groups in Iraq remained largely on the sidelines of the war in Gaza and the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel. “Those militias in Iraq? Well, they’re still deterred. And their leaders, if they attack Israel, will also be gone,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in his speech to the UN General Assembly in September.

For Tehran, the PMF’s strategic value has never been greater. AFP

Tehran has maintained a measured silence. Analysts say that posture reflected its confidence in the outcome of Iraq’s elections, which strengthened pro-Iran blocs within the PMF capable of blocking any disarmament bill.

However, reports indicate a parallel move to continue the transfer of arms to the PMF to bolster the group against any pressure. In October, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on dozens of entities accused of procuring drones, missiles and funds - through front companies linked to Kataib Hezbollah – for operations by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Quds Force.

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies has also repeatedly highlighted Iranian missile transfers to units in the PMF, seeing them as part of Tehran’s deterrence strategy against potential US and Israeli operations.

“Evidence suggests Iran is supporting these groups militarily – drones and various-range missiles are in their hands,” Mr Khalkhali said. “This aligns with Tehran’s calculus, seeing the PMF as a deterrent force to maintain influence in the region and confront Israel.”

Tehran, however, has dismissed the claims. Iranian analyst Hossein Kanaani Moqaddam echoed the country's official stance, saying the PMF is an "Iraqi institution, not a proxy of Iran", linking any PMF arms to ISIS remnants.

Iran has denied claims it is involved in the PMF's decision-making, insisting its goals align with Tehran’s but that the group operates independently. “Iran has never instructed its allies – from Yemen’s Houthis to Lebanon or Iraq – to enter a war on Iran’s behalf," Mr Moqaddam said. Each group "acts on its own initiative", he added.