Risks remain in Syria but none of the main players want the country to implode

Euphoria over recent lifting of sanctions tempered by complex political landscape

Employees count stashes of Syrian pounds at the central bank in Damascus. AFP

Syrian businessman Khaldoun Qassem is in two minds on whether to return from Warsaw for good and invest in his homeland, which he fled during the civil war.

US and EU decisions to lift sanctions on the Syrian economy have helped mitigate some of the risk.

No longer does he expect problems when liquidating part of a small fortune he has made in exile and transfer it to Syria.

This would be to turn one of several courtyard houses he owns in Old Damascus into a hotel.

Mr Qassem, a supporter of President Ahmad Al Shara, believes Syria has not yet left the danger zone.

The economy and the infrastructure are in shambles after 14 years of civil war that resulted in the removal of fromer president Bashar Al Assad by forces led by Mr Al Shara's Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), an armed group with past links to Al Qaeda .

Although western and Arab powers have given Mr Al Shara “the green light” to try to turn the country around, Mr Qassem fears that some of the new Preident's own base could undermine his rule.

He cites armed militants who patrol parts of Old Damascus and are blamed for enforcing gender segregation in public spaces and for carrying a deadly raid on a nightclub.

Mr Al Shara has promised accountability and fair elections, despite a vague timetable and accusations of continuous sectarian killings.

"Jihadists in the system are bad for business,” Mr Qassem said.

“There are two Syrias. The one the president is talking about, which is not the same as the one some of the state-sponsored militants think they are living in”.

“If they do not adapt, Al Shara must purge them." Mr Qassem plans to wait six months before deciding whether to return to Damascus.

Syrians celebrate and set off fireworks following Syrian President Ahmad Al Sharaa's speech after the lifting of US sanctions on Syria, in Damascus. EPA

Civil war ghosts

The risks to the country's stability go beyond whether Mr Al Shara is in full control of his military base.

Washington has lifted sanctions, but warned that if investment does not arrive soon, the pressure on livelihoods could swell the rans of ISIS.

The country could slide into another civil war, resurrecting the influence of Iran, the main regional backer of the former regime, said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

A European diplomat said the EU’s decision to lift sanctions aimed to stop the country turning into another Libya.

This undermines the official narrative that Syria is open for business, with the new state having awarded a French and a UAE company concessions to operate Syria’s two main ports.

Mr Al Shara has been setting up multilayered security structures to spread the reach of the new, HTS dominated state.

He has sent waves of auxiliaries to quell resistance in areas inhabited by Alawites, the sect whose members ruled Sunni-majority Syria for almost six decades, and is now primary target of killings.

Last month, military intervention by Israel halted an onslaught by HTS-allied militias on the Druze minority. The sect's heartland in the southern province of Suweida continues to come under attack.

Mourners chant during the funeral of members of Syria's Druze community. May 3, 2025. AFP

Mr Al Shara must work out how to tackle the US-backed, mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),a militia in control of large areas of the north-east of the country.

The region, near the border with Turkey, holds much of Syria's oil, gas and commodities. Turkey, which supports Mr Al Shara, regards the SDF as a main enemy.

In March, the SDF agreed to join the new state, but no substantial progress has been made, with the SDF insisting that it should remain as a separate division within the army.

Ties frayed further after the SDF convened a Kurdish conference last month to demand a federal system, which was rejected by Mr Al Shara.

An SDF official did not rule out that the US might at one point abandon the group in a possible deal with Turkey, noting that President Donald Trump met Mr Al Shara in Riyadh after being urged to do so by Ankara, and Saudi Arabia.

However, Mr Al Shara will undermine his international position if he moves military against the SDF, the official said.

“There is 10 per cent chance of war,” the official told The National. "I don't think Al Shara will embark on it because his international image is so important for him".

Another diplomat suggested that Mr Al Shara's perceived heavy-handedness in dealing with outlaying regions could cause the minorities to unite against him.

The issue of minorities have also contributed to tensions between Turkey and Israel, which is angered by Ankara's expansionism, does not want extremists near its border and may benefit from a weak government in Damascus.

Turkey has condemned Israel's intervention in favour of the Druze. Israeli media reported this week that the two countries have reached an agreement mediated by Azerbaijan to minimise the risk of clashes between their forces in Syria, indicating that as much as their interest diverge in Syria, neither want to risk war.

Kamel Ghribi, chairman of GKSD Holding, an infrastructure company based in Milan, meets Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara in Damascus on May 2,2025. Photo: GKSD

Kamel Ghribi, chairman of GKSD Holding, a company based in Milan and specialising in infrastructure and healthcare, expects Syria to remain vulnerable "to push and pull forces" until a balance is reached.

Mr Ghibri, who recently met Mr Al Shara in Damascus, said the Syrian government must act a the removal of sanctions to "build trust" through "genuine commitment to political reform, accountability and human rights".

Stabilisation in Syria, which links Europe with the Gulf, could reactivate trade routes and energy pipelines, "benefiting the entire region", he said.