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For 18-year-old Batoul el Mokdad, the November ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah did not end the war in Lebanon.
She is standing in the spot on a road in the southern Lebanese border village of Houla where weeks earlier her cousin, Khadija Atwi, was shot in the face by Israeli soldiers while she held her baby nephew.
"Her dad is buried in the cemetery above, a few hundred metres away from here, and she was running to go see him," Batoul says, pointing up the road.
“They’re saying the conflict is over but it’s not,” she says. “Despite the ceasefire, we’re still losing people in the south to Israeli attacks every day. Most of the destruction here in Houla happened after the truce was agreed upon. Israel isn’t letting us rebuild.”
The near-daily Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon are imposing a new status quo. A continuous war is dragging the small country into indefinite violence, as it marks the 50th anniversary of a civil war that never truly ended.
Since the shaky ceasefire to halt 14 months of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, including two months of Israeli bombardment campaign, the United Nations peacekeeping force deployed in south Lebanon has reported numerous breaches.
These include nearly 2,200 Israeli airspace incursions, more than 40 air strikes, and close to 1,300 Israeli ground activities south of the Litani River – about 30km from the Israeli-Lebanese border, a spokesman for the peacekeeping force told The National.
On the Lebanese side, Unifil has reported 19 missiles launched from Lebanon into Israel.
UN experts said in February that they were outraged that “the killing of civilians and the systematic destruction of housing, agricultural land and other critical infrastructure” by Israel in southern Lebanon was continuing despite the ceasefire.
They reported that dozens of civilians were killed while attempting to return to their homes, in violation of international human rights and humanitarian law.
Batoul’s cousin Khadija, a 17-year-old student, was one of them. Her family says she was killed by Israeli forces on February 16 as she returned to the village.
Under the November ceasefire agreement, Israel had 60 days to fully withdraw from villages it had occupied during a ground offensive launched in October, while Hezbollah is supposed to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon.
Israel missed the withdrawal deadline on January 26. That day, thousands of southern residents attempting to return to their villages were met with gunfire from Israeli soldiers that killed 22 people and wounded 124 others.
In Houla, several civilians were killed, and others were arrested and reportedly tortured at a military base near the border, as previously reported by The National.
Two days before the second withdrawal deadline of February 18, a group of Houla residents tried to return. Seeing no visible presence of Israeli forces, a wave of hope spread among them, prompting more people to flock to the village.
Khadija’s family does not hide its affiliation with Hezbollah, but said that the people who gathered were civilians – families hoping to see what remained of their homes or to search for relatives believed to be buried under the rubble.
Then, Israeli vehicles opened fire without warning, residents said. Khadija was the first to be shot. Her sister, who had been standing beside her, barely managed to escape the following day. She says she left Khadija lying on the ground, a bullet in her jaw.
The family alleges that Israeli soldiers shot the young girl several times at point-blank range as she lay on the ground. “Doctors would not allow me to wash my daughter’s body; they said there was nothing left of her face,” Haifa Atwi, Khadija’s mother, tells The National.
The Israeli army insisted it was responding to threats in south Lebanon when previously questioned about incidents involving civilians being captured and shot at.
Endless war
By the time Israeli forces eventually withdrew on February 18, there was little left of Houla. The village lies in ruins. Most buildings have been reduced to rubble, others are coated in black, charcoal-like dust, as if scorched by fire.
Essential components of social life, including the local school and municipal building, have been destroyed. Residents say many of the houses were blown up just hours before Israeli troops officially pulled out of Houla.
“There was more destruction during the 60-day truce period, when the fighting had stopped, than during the war itself,” Batoul says.
In Yarin, another town in southern Lebanon, Israeli soldiers razed the local school they had turned into a military outpost just before pulling out. They only left behind cans and food packages labelled in Hebrew, littered across the floor of the ruined building.
“Israel doesn't want anyone to come back,” the former principal, Hassan Ismail, tells The National. “It's a scorched-earth policy.”
Israel has now withdrawn from all but five positions inside Lebanon. Still, rebuilding feels impossible in the south of the country. Batoul said drones flying over Houla frequently broadcast warnings, telling residents they will not be able to rebuild until Hezbollah is fully disarmed.
In March, an Israeli drone strike hit a cafe in the village, days after its owner had finished building it. One person was injured and the new structure was reduced to charred remains. Similar strikes on temporary buildings have occurred at least 10 times in border towns since February 18.
On the day that The National visited Houla, Israel struck an excavator and bulldozer in the border town of Aita Al Shaab. “They could be a target,” says Batoul, pointing at an excavator digging into a pile of rubble in Houla.
Israel has repeated that it is striking Hezbollah targets that pose a threat to Israeli civilians.
Israel 'never left the war'
In Lebanon’s new status quo, Israel strikes at will, any time, anywhere, against any perceived threat. Even Beirut is not off-limits: since the November ceasefire, Israel has hit the capital twice.
Israel's actions beyond the ceasefire deal are seen as part of US guarantees that granted the Israeli military the right to continue striking Hezbollah and any other “threat”.
Political, military and security sources previously told The National that politicians involved in the ceasefire negotiations were aware of this outcome. They had been informed by American and other foreign envoys that it was inevitable.
A western diplomatic source says the truce’s ambiguous framework has also made this possible.
“Hezbollah thought it would be like 2006, and that the vague terms of the ceasefire would work in their favour,” the source tells The National, referring to the agreement that ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, and which forms the basis of the current truce.
“But this is not 2006,” the source adds. “Hezbollah has been seriously weakened. It’s no longer the deterrent force it once was.”
Hezbollah, long described as one of the most powerful militias, has been severely undermined by months of fighting. Its leadership has been devastated and its arsenal largely annihilated. Ambiguities also include the geographical limit of Hezbollah's disarmament, which was interpreted as limited to south Lebanon by some and as applying to the whole country by others.
The western diplomatic source says “good progress” has been made south of the Litani River, with the Lebanese armed forces and Unifil now deployed there.
But Hezbollah’s complete disarmament remains a highly sensitive issue in Lebanese politics, as the group still commands strong support within the Shiite community and remains a very powerful armed force in the country.
Despite positive developments, Israel has maintained a strategy of maximum pressure – with the green light of the Trump administration – on the newly appointed leadership. US-backed President Joseph Aoun and international jurist Nawal Salam, now Prime Minister, are both widely praised by the international community.
“We’re asking this government, which inherited an incredibly dire situation, to do in two months what would normally take years,” the western diplomatic source says. “You can’t expect them to deliver while suffocating them. It risks jeopardising everything.”
Political analyst Karim el Mufti says that chaos is of little concern to Israel. “Israel only plays what’s in its favour,” he says. “They never left the war mentality. Under the guise of security, they will keep striking Lebanon to ensure there’s no return to the pre-October 7 status quo.”
The outcome of this maximalist strategy will be either simmering instability in Lebanon, or a forced normalisation with Israel.
The biggest loser is Lebanon’s sovereignty, forced to bend to Israel’s demands, Mr Mufti says. “There’s no reason for Israeli blackmail to stop; bombardments will continue until Israel achieves its goals.”
In southern Lebanon, residents remain defiant. “Khadija wasn’t carrying a weapon, but she carried a message: we will return to our land, whatever the cost,” her mother says.
