Sudan war 'risks fragmenting country', with no path to peace in sight

Analysts warn of high costs of conflict, as US envoy calls for all parties to commit to ending the fighting

Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, commander of Sudan's armed forces, addresses the Cop29 climate conference in Azerbaijan. Getty Images

Pursuing a military solution to Sudan's civil war, rather than negotiating a peace settlement, risks causing the country to break up, analysts warned.

Sudanese army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan has said he aims to end the conflict, which has raged for 19 months, by defeating the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on the battlefield. The army has been on the offensive in recent months and has retaken parts of the capital Khartoum, as well as some areas south of the capital.

On Saturday, the army claimed it regained control of the Sennar state capital of Sinja, south of Khartoum. Seizing the city would allow soldiers to control a key road linking eastern and central Sudan.

But the army has been unable to retake all of the capital, with many areas still under the control of the RSF, led by Gen Mohamed Dagalo. Gen Al Burhan's forces have also been unable to push the paramilitary group out of Darfur in the west, Kordofan in the south-west and Al Jazira, south of the capital.

Sudanese analyst Osman Al Mirghany said the decision to pursue battlfield successes rather than committing to negotiations could come at a high cost. A negotiated peace settlement would spare the country from grave risks, while continuing to fight could lead to the break-up of a nation that has often teetered on the brink of collapse in nearly seven decades of independence, he added.

“The army itself is not against negotiating a settlement – it is carrying out its battlefield tasks while leaving the decision to negotiate or not to Al Burhan and his allies,” he said. “A military solution will be very costly and, given the formidable dangers that surround Sudan and the nation's own fragility, it can fragment the country. It's not the ideal choice.”

Sudan's civil war has left about 26 million people – more than half the population – facing acute hunger in what the UN says is one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. It has also displaced 11 million people and devastated the vast nation's infrastructure.

Gen Al Burhan laid out his strategy for the conflict at a recent economic forum in Port Sudan. “We will fight this war until the very end, the obliteration of this militia and dispatching it to the trash bin of history,” he said. “The final solution of this war is the destruction of the rebels … we must end once and for all this nightmare.”

Gen Al Burhan's comments come at a critical moment in the war and could shape the future of the nation. It could also have a strong impact on the Horn of Africa region, which has already been gripped by instability owing to deadly unrest, extremism and climate change.

“In my view, prolonging the war will lead to more chaos and destruction and paralyses economic activity,” said Sudanese military analyst Jaafar Hassan, a retired army brigadier. "The army simply cannot continue like this, unable to defeat the RSF militia or sit and negotiate.

"Al Burhan is failing both politically and militarily. He is unable to decide the war militarily and has no appealing narrative that would secure popular support.”

Gen Al Burhan, a veteran of the civil war in Darfur in the 2000s, addressed the forum a day after he held talks with the US special envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, in Port Sudan, where the military-backed government is now based. They discussed the prospects of a ceasefire and efforts to carve out corridors to deliver aid. Approval was granted for relief flights to reach hunger-stricken South Kordofan and permission was extended for the use of the Adre border crossing from Chad into Darfur, but there was no progress on a ceasefire.

“We do not yet see enough political appetite from the parties to find a real resolution to this conflict,” Mr Perriello said on Thursday in Rome.

Several attempts to broker a truce have fallen apart, most recently in August, when the military refused to attend US-mediated talks in Geneva. Since then, fighting has escalated.

Gen Al Burhan's comments also came a day after Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan and the protection of civilians.

Gen Al Burhan thanked Moscow after the move and said Sudan rejected the resolution tabled by the UK and Sierra Leone because it failed to condemn the RSF and amounted to interference in Sudan's domestic affairs. “No ceasefire and no participation in negotiations … we are certain victory is imminent,” he said.

But some Sudanese claim he is looking to Moscow's help in the conflict. “Russia will not ask for a small price in return for its veto. That price will be paid by the nation's sons just as we have been paying the price for the army's recklessness generation after generation,” said Hesham Said, 38, who fled Al Jazira to seek refuge in Kassala, in eastern Sudan.

Sudanese analyst Taher Moatasam said Mr Perriello "came to Sudan in the 25th hour" for talks that failed to establish a path to a ceasefire. “His diplomatic mission was derailed in Port Sudan and now we only have the army's notion of deciding the war militarily, which is unattainable and will result in civilians paying a high price," Mr Moatasam added.

Both side have been accused by the UN of committing war crimes or crimes against humanity, as well as obstructing the flow of aid.

Violence in Al Jazira has caused the deaths of dozens of villagers, while up to 150,000 people have been forcibly evicted after a senior member of the RSF reportedly defected to the army. Videos shared online showed men, women and children walking out of villages in the area carrying their belongings.

“We lived all our life in quiet and peaceful villages, but it's the destiny that God chose for us that we left everything and fled,” said Osman Hagou, a sugar factory worker. “All the stores and homes in our village were looted and electricity and water wells were disabled.”

Al Shafie Ahmed contributed to this report from Kampala, Uganda.