Blinken returns to the Middle East with little hope of ceasefire breakthrough

The US Secretary of State is turning to Egyptians to pressure Hamas to accept a deal, sources say

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Getty Images

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is flying to the Middle East for his 10th visit to the region since the Gaza war began 11 months ago. However, unlike previous visits, it comes without optimistic projections by Washington that a breakthrough was imminent in Gaza's ceasefire negotiations and the release of hostages.

Mr Blinken is expected to co-chair with Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty on Wednesday the opening of the US-Egypt Strategic Dialogue, a ministerial forum designed to explore ways to bolster relations between the long-time allies and iron out differences. The meeting comes at a time when Egypt-US relations are closer than they have been in years.

The State Department last week pointed to Cairo's important role in Gaza peace efforts when it announced that the administration planned to give the most populous Arab nation its full $1.3 billion in military aid, overriding congressional requirements that Washington hold back some of the funding if Egypt fails to show adequate progress on human rights.

Mr Blinken's two-day visit to Cairo, however, will be primarily focused on finding a way to break the months-long deadlock in mediation efforts by the US and close Arab allies Egypt and Qatar to reach a Gaza ceasefire and secure the release of Israeli and other hostages held by Hamas since October.

US President Joe Biden's administration now says it is working with Egypt and Qatar to come up with a revised final proposal to try to at least get Israel and Hamas into a six-week ceasefire that would free some of the hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

US, Qatari and Egyptian officials still are consulting “about what that proposal will contain, and … we're trying to see that it's a proposal that can get the parties to an ultimate agreement,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Monday.

However, sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations said a breakthrough appeared unlikely and were sceptical whether the latest proposals offered anything new.

“Blinken is here to try to move the negotiations forward but Hamas will not budge and neither will Israel,” said one of the sources. “Talking about revised proposals that require the two sides to make concessions is too hopeful. Washington just wants Egypt and Qatar to pressure Hamas to agree to a deal.”

Hamas, explained the sources, has been left with little to lose 11 months into a war that has most likely depleted its military capabilities and personnel, killed more than 41,000 Palestinians and devastated the coastal enclave and displaced most of its 2.3 million residents. The group is unlikely to give in to pressure now, the sources said.

The war was caused by an attack on southern Israel by Hamas that, according to Israeli tallies, killed about 1,200 people. The attackers also kidnapped about 250 people, of whom only about 100 remain in captivity in Gaza. About a third of the captives are believed to be dead, according to Israel's military,

In a letter to Yemen's Houthis, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar said the group was readying to fight on with assistance from fighters and support from across the region. “We have prepared ourselves to fight a long war of attrition,” he said.

Hamas, said the sources, remained uncompromising when it comes to its core demands: A full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, a permanent ceasefire and the unconditional return home for Palestinians displaced by the war in Gaza, including those whose homes are in the north of the territory.

The militant group was also unwilling to release a large number of hostages during the first phase of the US-proposed deal as demanded by Israel, they said, pointing out that the estimated 100 hostages still held by the group are the biggest bargaining chip it has.

They said Israel was also taking inflexible positions on key areas. It insists on retaining a security role in postwar Gaza, the exclusion of Hamas from any future Gaza administration and continued posting of its military on a narrow strip of land that runs the entire length of the Gaza-Egypt border on the Palestinian side.

Israel also wants its military to remain at the so-called Netzarim corridor, a road it has built which cuts the Gaza Strip in half, to prevent the infiltration of Hamas fighters into northern Gaza where they can pose a threat to southern Israeli communities.

Egypt has been deeply angered by Israel's capture in May of the border strip, Salah Al Din, widely known as the Philadelphi Corridor, as well as the Palestinian side of the Egypt-Gaza border crossing at the town of Rafah.

It maintains that the continued posting of Israeli troops and hardware in the land strip violates the two nations' 1979 peace treaty and subsequent accords and insists it would only deal with a Palestinian entity, not necessarily Hamas, on the other side of the Rafah crossing, which Cairo has closed since May.

Egypt, the sources said, has been looking to the US, by far Israel's biggest backer, to pressure the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pull out from the area, but is beginning to realise that Washington might be unable to exercise sufficient influence on Israel in an election year, according to sources.

“Israel is clearly working towards prolonging the war until after the US election in November. Washington could have effectively influenced Israel if it had not been for the election,” said another source, alluding to the US presidential vote on November 5 that's contested by former president Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris.

Mr Blinken has no public plans to go to Israel this time round to meet Mr Netanyahu, whose public statements and unbudgeable demands have complicated earlier diplomatic efforts.