Oman has spent decades cultivating a reputation as one of the Middle East’s most reliable diplomatic go-betweens, maintaining a long-standing strategic partnership with the US while preserving close ties with Iran.
That balancing act is now facing a serious test, with Oman’s relationship with the US under pressure.
President Donald Trump threatened this week to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of US efforts to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Washington and Tehran remain divided over how to end their months-long conflict, while Muscat has pursued separate discussions with Tehran over arrangements for navigation through the strategic waterway.
Mr Trump himself agreed in a signed document that Oman would “conduct dialogue” with Iran to define the future administration and maritime services in the strait.
“Oman’s negotiations with Iran over a mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz appear to have been a bilateral Iran-Oman effort, though it’s true that the memorandum of understanding from June endorsed a 60-day Iranian-Omani mechanism,” Marc Sievers, former US ambassador to Oman, told The National. “It is also true that the US and Iran understood this point differently, which led to the collapse of the MoU.”
The 14-point deal negotiated in Islamabad and signed on June 17 was intended as an interim framework for ending the war, opening a window for negotiations on a longer-term nuclear agreement. The MoU expired on Monday after the broader understanding had already collapsed amid a flurry of tit-for-tat strikes.
The main dispute centred on how each side interpreted the clause on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran viewed the language in the text as recognising its right to manage the whole strait. Washington, however, took it to mean that Iran must guarantee freedom of navigation and refrain from using access to strategic waterways as leverage.
Oman shares the strait with Iran. On Monday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said Muscat and Tehran had reached an “understanding” regarding the waterway and were working to finalise a joint statement. This appears to have angered Mr Trump.
“I assume US-Oman relations are tense following President Trump’s comment, but it’s not the first time,” said Mr Sievers, referring to an earlier threat by Mr Trump. “He said it back in May as well and nothing happened.”
In late May, asked whether he would accept a deal that would give Oman and Iran control of the strait, Mr Trump said: “Nobody is going to control it. It’s international waters and Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we will have to blow them up.”
Beaten, but not broken
The latest threat by Mr Trump represents a deterioration in the political atmosphere between Washington and Muscat but does not amount to a rupture in the relationship.
Oman has been a US partner for almost 200 years. Relations between the countries can be traced back to 1833, when they signed the Treaty of Amity and Commerce. Informal trade began even earlier, with American businesses using Omani ports as early as 1790. Oman was also the first Arab country to recognise the newly independent United States, sending an envoy to New York in 1840.
Mr Trump’s “outbursts come from a place of anger and frustration, and they will come and go, but US-Oman relations have a long history and will survive these issues,” said Anna Jacobs, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute.
“Ties between the two countries right now are not in the best place but, either way, the US needs Oman to figure out Hormuz and for serious, longer-term negotiations with Iran,” she told The National.
The Omani government did not respond publicly to Mr Trump’s latest comments.
Omani political commentator Zakaria Al Muharrmi criticised the US President’s language in a post on X.
“America's wise leaders know that Oman is the one that freed many detained American citizens in Tehran, and that it is the one that convinced the Houthis to stop shelling American warships and that it is the key to the solution in the Strait of Hormuz crisis,” he wrote. “Trump must watch his words.”
Can Oman remain neutral?
During the Iran war, Oman faced retaliatory strikes targeting its ports and energy infrastructure but still took part in negotiations aimed at reaching a resolution and maintained diplomatic channels with the Islamic republic. Iran has also launched retaliatory strikes against the other five Gulf states, as well as Gulf-linked vessels.
Mr Sievers believes “Oman has not behaved as a neutral mediator in this conflict but tipped towards endorsing some of Iran’s positions”.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said this week the proposed mechanism for control of Hormuz seeks to protect the interests of both Iran and Oman while allowing commercial shipping to pass through.
For Oman, keeping the strait open is not only about global energy security or US strategic interests. The waterway borders Oman’s territory, including the Musandam governorate, and any escalation around it directly affects Omani security.
“All of this is a matter of urgent national security for Oman; this is about their sovereign waters, protecting their territory and stabilising their region,” said Ms Jacobs. “It’s no secret they are caught in a very difficult position. Their policy of neutrality is being tested as American and Iranian pressure is mounting. But they are working hard to stick to their principles of neutrality, international law, protecting their national interests and finding a compromise solution in Hormuz.”
Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said on Thursday his country remains committed to maritime security and rejects escalation or conflict. He also said achieving sustainable security in the strait requires lasting regional peace based on restraint, diplomacy and continued engagement.
Analysts say Oman is not expected to abandon diplomacy, and for Washington, the Gulf state remains an important regional actor whose access to Tehran and position along Hormuz make it difficult to sideline.
“Muscat doesn’t have the luxury of giving up on mediation or diplomacy,” said Ms Jacobs. “They will double down on their diplomatic efforts.”
