France's decision to recognise Palestinian statehood in September has been widely hailed by experts as a historic turning point, one that could prompt other western countries to follow suit.
By dispatching a letter to the Palestinian Authority confirming a September deadline, French President Emmanuel Macron hopes to leverage outrage over the situation in Gaza for a push to Palestine statehood recognition.
Supporters argue it may pressure Israel to seek a political settlement to the Gaza war and pave the way towards peaceful coexistence with Palestinians.
The timing of Mr Macron's announcement – amid growing fury over mass starvation in Gaza and reports of the Israeli military killing hundreds of people at aid distribution points – appears calculated to trigger a domino effect. However, the move also risks diplomatic friction and potential isolation, particularly in relation to the United States.
“He is attempting to leverage the current high level of public outrage to continue to pressuring UK, Japan, Canada and the Europeans to join him in his recognition,” Rym Momtaz, editor in chief of Carnegie Europe think tank's Strategic Europe blog, told The National.
Former French ambassador Michel Duclos described it as a “cry of alarm” and a “gesture of protest against unacceptable Israeli behaviour. “If we hadn't done it, we risked arriving at a point of no return, where a Palestinian state is no longer viable, and losing all credibility with the Global South,” he said.
US President Donald Trump dismissed Mr Macron's announcement as not carrying weight, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a strong rebuke, saying it "serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace." He added it was a "slap in the face to the victims of October 7th” − echoing an argument made hours earlier by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar.
In a symbolic vote this week, the Knesset approved plans to annex the occupied West Bank, where violence against Palestinians at the hands of Israelis is on the rise.
Yet US and Israeli criticism is unlikely to worry France much, analysts say. “France is focused on being a catalyst for a durable day after solution that provides for the preservation of the rights of the Palestinians and also prevents any more terrorist attacks against Israel,” Ms Momtaz said.
“The truth of the matter is that only Macron's initiative provides the beginning of a solution to disarm Hamas.”
Macron's shift
French-US relations have been historically tense over the Middle East. In 2003, French opposition under then foreign minister Dominique de Villepin to the US invasion of Iraq yielded the so-called “freedom fries” backlash, which saw the US Congress menus drop the term French fries. This show of irritation by Washington boosted France's reputation in the Middle East.
“As de Villepin used to say, we're an old country. We're unfazed,” Mr Duclos, who was deputy permanent ambassador of France at the UN at the time, said. “Knowing Macron, he certainly spoke to Trump before making any announcement.”
In his early years in office, Mr Macron, who was first elected in 2017, largely avoided significant involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict, despite France's long-standing support for a two-state solution.
Now, his move echoes earlier bold diplomatic interventions. In 1982, in his first speech in front of the Israeli parliament, president Francois Mitterrand took a significant political risk by calling on Israel to negotiate with the Palestinian Liberation Organisation, despite it being labelled at the time as terrorist entity by Israel.
Mr Macron has increasingly sought to strengthen ties with the Global South, appearing sensitive to accusations of western double standards in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Speaking in Singapore in May, Mr Macron said that recognising Palestine was a “moral duty”. In July, he invited Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to be the guest of honour at the Bastille Day military parade in Paris.
Nonetheless, Mr Macron has often shied away from direct criticism against Israel. A few months after the start of the Gaza war, France declined to join calls by Ireland and Spain to review the European Union's relations with Israel − a review that was conducted one year later, this time following Dutch pressure.
More recently, Mr Macron endorsed Israeli strikes on Iran, despite the fact that they were illegal under international law. “When Israel attacked Iran, I thought he would do what [former president Charles] De Gaulle did in 1967 [the 1967 Arab-Israeli War], or Chirac in 2003, and say that it's the country that attacks first that must be blamed,” Mr Duclos said.
Instead, French missiles positioned in Jordan intercept Iranian drones headed for Israel.
Win-win politics
French diplomats have framed Palestinian recognition as a win-win solution that is not about sanctioning Israel, but about supporting its right to live in peace with its neighbours. Responding to Mr Rubio, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, wrote on X: “Hamas has always rejected the two-state solution. By recognising Palestine, France proves this terrorist movement wrong. It supports the side of peace against that of war.”
These arguments appear to have fallen on deaf ears among Israeli and US leadership, which are expected to boycott the conference in New York later this year on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, where Mr Macron will formalise his decision.
France would become the first among the powerful Group of Seven countries to recognise Palestine, with hopes that others, most likely the UK, will follow. “The idea is to have a maximum knock-on effect,” Mr Duclos said.
What will happen next remains an open question, with critics pointing at a risk of further radicalisation of Israel's leadership, an expulsion of Gazans and an annexation of the West Bank – effectively erasing the territorial basis for a Palestinian state. France hopes to further strengthen the Palestinian Authority, so that it can take over Gaza once the ceasefire is over.
Some in France, such as former ambassador to the US Gerard Araud, have argued that recognising Palestinian statehood gives Palestinians more political rights to fight back in front of courts such as the International Court of Justice.
“What Palestinians need most of all is to be protected by the law,” Mr Araud told radio France Inter. “France is like a voice in the desert, telling other western countries that they need to act now. It's not sure France will be heard.”
