AI chip export rules: Will President Trump change Biden's policy?

Regulations would limit semiconductor purchases by UAE, India, Singapore and others

Big tech firms and countries with AI ambitions are hoping that US President Donald Trump makes changes to chip export rules. AP

Several US technology companies and various countries are waiting to see if US President Donald Trump will change a final Joe Biden-era policy that limits access to powerful chips needed for the development of artificial intelligence.

Widely known as the AI diffusion rule, the policy was mostly designed by Biden administration officials aiming to keep powerful US-made AI technology away from adversarial countries such as China and Russia.

Yet several leading US technology companies, along with many countries considered to be US partners and allies, have expressed alarm that they would be caught in the middle and disproportionately affected by the rules.

An increasingly adversarial relationship with China prompted the US to take a close look at its semiconductor export policies. Getty Images

A new Reuters report, however, says that the Trump White House is working to change the policies that have caused so much concern.

Under the proposed rules designed by Biden administration, beginning on May 15, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan and the UK would be exempt from AI diffusion restrictions.

Other allied countries, such as Switzerland, Poland, Greece, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, fall into a second-tier category, and in turn would find it more difficult – although not impossible – to obtain the powerful chips needed for AI research and development.

Microsoft has urged US President Donald Trump to withdraw restrictions on artificial intelligence chips enacted during the final days of Joe Biden's administration.

The third tier of countries – China, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria and Venezuela – will have the most difficulty obtaining GPUs and CPUs under the new rules if they are applied.

Early in 2025, US technology and AI heavyweights such as Microsoft and Nvidia came out strongly against the diffusion rules.

“Left unchanged, the Biden rule will give China a strategic advantage in spreading over time its own AI technology, echoing its rapid ascent in 5G telecoms a decade ago,” Microsoft's president and vice chairman Brad Smith wrote on the company's AI blog in February.

Ned Finkle, vice president of government affairs at Nvidia, a maker of many of the chips affected by the AI diffusion policy, said the Biden administration sought to "undermine America’s leadership with a 200-plus-page regulatory morass, drafted in secret and without proper legislative review".

Nvidia and Microsoft have said that the policy could have unintended consequences by pushing countries to buy from China instead of the US.

According to Reuters, White House officials are now considering scrapping the tiers and replacing them with “government-to-government” agreements.

The report cautioned that several options are still being considered as the May 15 deadline fast approaches.

Meanwhile, countries with AI aspirations are waiting to see what develops.

Jensen Huang, Nvidia's chief executive.

A source familiar with the UAE's economic partnerships and AI endeavours told The National that the Reuters report is consistent with what US officials have been conveying to the Emirates in terms of potential options around the export rules, but that US policymakers have not yet indicated specifics or any finality to possible changes.

In March, during a visit by UAE officials to the White House, AI and high-performance microchips were among several topics discussed.

One month prior, Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang met Mr Trump in Washington where semiconductor policies were also discussed, yet the exact details of the talks are unknown.

Ben Buchanan (left), former White House Special Advisor on artificial intelligence defended a controversial policy that seeks to limit the amount of semiconductors the US ships to various countries in order to maintain a lead in AI.

The National contacted Nvidia about the reports on possible changes to chip export rules, but the company declined to comment.

Early in April, Ben Buchanan, a former senior Biden administration AI adviser, defended the chip export policies.

“If computing power is so fundamental to AI, and the US and our allies are at such an extraordinary advantage in the design, production and use of that computing power, then we should be careful where we send this," he said, also trying to counter Nvidia’s argument that US companies were being unfairly punished.

"The argument was that we were limiting who these US companies can sell these chips to and therefore limiting the revenue of these companies. Nvidia's stock, prior to the tariffs at least, did very well and they've done just fine, because there's extraordinary demand for AI chips."

There are concerns, however, from some analysts that the threat of US chip export rules might inadvertently be fuelling more research and development in China.

Meanwhile, speculation is swirling that China's Huawei Technologies is ready to launch AI infrastructure products that could rival Nvidia's.

China's DeepSeek AI platform, which was announced in February and claims to be more efficient, thus lessening the need for incredibly powerful chips, is also causing analysts to worry about the export rules.