The new 747 flies, but will it sell?

Flight tests of Boeing's new passenger jet began last month with uncertainty about commercial sales hanging over an aircraft meant to extend the jumbo jet's long success. Part of the problem for the 747-8I lies in the US plane maker's other successful products

The 747-8 Intercontinental's cabin, featuring larger windows and new lighting, is displayed in a mock up of seats and a table February 12, 2011 at the Boeing Customer Experience Center in Renton, Washington. The new plane, which will be unveiled February 13, 2011, features quieter more fuel efficient engines, more passenger seating and redesigned interiors. Stephen Brashear/Getty Images/AFPShow less

On the crisp spring morning of March 20, the largest passenger jet that Boeing has ever produced lifted off the ground on its first flight.

The 747-8 passenger aircraft, the fourth generation of the venerable jumbo jet that entered service in 1970, flew as high as 6,100 metres above the snow-capped Pacific Northwest landscape to start 600 hours of flight tests.

The plane looked perfectly at home above Washington state's majestic Mount Baker. But a looming question for the US aircraft company is whether it will find a home regularly plying the air routes above the sandy expanses of the Middle East.

While it has notched a surprisingnumber of orders from regional governments acquiring VIP and official aircraft - the first delivery is scheduled not for an airline but for the Kuwaiti government - sales have been slow among the region's commercial airlines.

Seriously considered but passed over by Emirates Airline in 2007, and still in contention for an order from Turkish Airlines for up to 10 planes, the 747-8I is taking its time to find its niche between other popular aircraft. (The "I" indicates "intercontinental", distinguishing the passenger model of the jet from the 747-8F, the freighter variant.)

The 467-seat, 76-metre-long jet features upgraded engines, a new wing design and lightweight structural materials. But to secure orders, it is competing against Boeing's 365-seat 777-300ER and the 525-seat Airbus A380 superjumbo. In the six years since its first order, the 747-8 has notched up just 33 firm orders for the passenger version - from Lufthansa, Korean Air and eight VIP customers, as well as 76 orders for the cargo version.

"The 747-8 will likely prove itself as an impressive performer, and its specifications so far look excellent," says Richard Aboulafia, the vice president of analysis at the Teal Group, an aerospace information company in the US.

"However, large aircraft are a small market," he says. "So far, the 747-8 has achieved respectable sales as a cargo plane and very limited sales as a passenger jet. The main problems are heavily discounted A380s for the passenger niche and the availability of plenty of 747-400s for cargo conversion."

However, "both of these factors will likely change", he says.

The only Middle East business so far for the new 747 is an order for 15 freighters placed by Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, a leasing company. But Dubai Aerospace has cancelled billions of dollars worth of other orders with Boeing and Airbus, and the long-term status of the 747 order is unclear.

Marty Bentrott, the regional vice president of sales at Boeing's commercial aeroplanes division, says Boeing is forecasting demand for up to 170 very large aircraft, such as the 747-8 and Airbus's A380, in the Middle East over the next two decades.

"Over the longer term, as the product evolves and gets broader establishment in the marketplace, I think we will find some opportunities for the 747-8," Mr Bentrott says.

One opportunity that may have come and gone is a sale to Emirates Airline, the world's largest international carrier. In 2007, Boeing locked in the final configuration of the 747-8I, choosing a longer plane that would carry more passengers instead of a slightly shorter version that would carry fewer passengers but had greater range.

Emirates wanted the jet for its Dubai-Los Angeles route and was considering an order for about 10 of the planes. But the final version of the plane is 5.6 metres longer than earlier models and has a range of 14,815km - just shy of the distance between Dubai and Los Angeles. As a result, Emirates resorted to flying the Boeing 777 to Los Angeles, with considerably fewer passengers than can be carried by the 747-8.

Tim Clark, the president of Emirates, recently said Boeing's high-performing, twin-engine 777 had cannibalised sales of the new 747, whose four engines demand more fuel than the 777's two turbines.

"What Boeing is up against is not the A380, it is their own machine - the 777-300ER," he said, referring to the "extended range" version of the 777-300. "The 777-300ER has proven to be one of the most popular aircraft ever produced, which is why we bought 100 of them."

That could change over time, Mr Aboulafia says: "We don't know how Emirates route network will evolve. It's quite possible that the 747-8I finds a role."

Other challenges have emerged from within Boeing. The company is nearly two years late in delivering the first 747-8s as company resources were diverted to putting the much-delayed 787 Dreamliner programme back on track. As a result, this year Boeing plans on testing, certifying and delivering three new aircraft: the 787 Dreamliner and the passenger and cargo versions of the 747-8, the first time it has attempted such a feat in its 95-year history.

"There has been a desire from the marketplace to have a good assessment of the plane's capability in advance of making commitments," Mr Bentrott says. In that regard, he is pleased the 747-8 is finally getting airborne, he says.

Ultimately, the 747-8's prospects may lie in the East, where the rise of super-large Asian cities will generate heavy demand for air travel.

In February, Boeing unveiled the first test aircraft with a brilliant orange and red "sunrise livery". In a nod to the past, the colours were reminiscent of the first 747 test, which took place in 1969. But the colours also represent Boeing's future - with the red symbolising good luck in Asia, the plane's largest target market.

Just two weeks after the 747-8's maiden test flight, Boeing had a stroke of luck, with Air China agreeing to a US$1.5 billion (Dh5.5bn) deal to buy five 747-8 passenger planes, pending Chinese government approval.