The world will move urgently to find alternatives to the US dollar as the Donald Trump administration will slap huge tariffs on the global financial system, according to Saxo Bank's annual Outrageous Predictions report for 2025.
The Danish investment bank’s list of eight events that are unlikely to occur in 2025 – but would send shock waves through global financial markets if they did – also includes Nvidia ballooning to twice the value of Apple, China unveiling a $7 trillion stimulus to reflate the economy, the first human heart being bio-printed and an electrification boom ending Opec.
“While we don’t know which stories will drive the global economy in the coming year, our 2025 predictions, from Nvidia trouncing its Magnificent 7 peers to the fall of Opec, from a bold bet on reflation in China to a great leap forward in biotech, are just as promised: outrageous,” says John Hardy, chief macro strategist at Saxo Bank.
The US president-elect on Saturday threatened to impose 100 per cent tariffs on the Brics nations if they avoid using the US dollar. He warned the group that he would require commitments that they would not move to create a new currency.
Mr Trump has also threatened to levy an additional 10 per cent tariffs on goods from China and 25 per cent tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada if those countries do not do more to stem the flow of illegal drugs and undocumented migrants across US borders.
Here are Saxo Bank’s eight outrageous forecasts for 2025:
1. Trump 2.0 blows up the dollar
Outrageous prediction: As the new Donald Trump administration turns the global financial system on its head with huge tariffs, the world will move urgently to find alternatives to the dollar.
China and the Brics+ transact with gold-backed digital money and, to a degree, directly in a new gold-backed offshore yuan. Europe rebases its trading relationships increasingly in the euro. Gold-linked crypto stablecoins add to the mix.
Market impact: The crypto market quadruples to more than $10 trillion, and the US dollar falls 20 per cent against major currencies and 30 per cent versus gold.
2. Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, Nvidia’s success is supercharged further with the availability in volume of its 208-billion transistor Blackwell chip.
“With the intensifying AI arms race and as AI data centre electricity costs have soared, the insatiable demand for the more powerful and yet less power-hungry Blackwell chips sees Nvidia taking the crown as the most profitable company of all time,” Mr Hardy says.
“It handily surpasses Apple’s record $105 billion of profits next year, and with far faster growth baked into expectations, its market cap nearly doubles again, making it twice the size of Apple. This sees it tower above all other companies in the world at a value of $7 trillion, or 10 per cent of the global equity market.”
Market impact: Nvidia shares trade well north of $250 before the market begins to question its potential to grab a greater share of corporate profits and as regulatory scrutiny on its monopoly status tempers the outlook.
3. China unleashes $7 trillion stimulus
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, China unleashes fiscal initiatives that add up to promises of more than CNY 50 trillion (about $7 trillion) in 2025 and the following years.
“Much of the spending goes directly into consumers' pockets via e-CNY digital currency, so that it will be injected straight into the economy rather than to pay off debt,” says Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist, Saxo Bank.
Market impact: A strong reflationary impact in China and the world, outperformance of emerging markets relative to developed markets and China in particular, higher commodity prices globally, and a stronger Chinese renminbi.
4. First human heart is bio-printed
Outrageous prediction: Researchers successfully bio-print a fully functional human heart using advanced 3D bioprinting technology in 2025.
“This achievement promises to alleviate the global shortage of donor organs by providing bio-printed hearts tailored to the DNA of individual patients. This breakthrough paves the way for extending human longevity,” says Koen Hoorelbeke, investment and options strategist at Saxo Bank.
Market impact: The success in bio-printed organs raises growth expectations for the biotechnology and 3D printing sectors. Most companies in this space are in the start-up phase but watch for a rash of initial public offerings.
5. Electrification boom ends Opec
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, with the writing on the wall on the forward demand picture since two-thirds of oil ends up as petrol or diesel in cars and lorries, Opec finds its relevance shrinking further and its multimillion barrel per day production limits irrelevant.
“With some members already cheating production quotas to grab what income they can and export demand falling, a majority of members quickly realise the jig is up. Amid the bickering and infighting, key members leave,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
“This consigns Opec to the ash heap of history. Former members max out production to ensure market share, driving a large drop in oil prices.”
Market impact: Crude oil slumps in price, a boon for airlines, chemical, paint and tyre manufacturers, and freight and logistics companies. But the market balances quickly, and oil prices stabilise as higher-cost suppliers, especially in North America, shut down expensive shale oil production.
head of commoditiy strategy, Saxo Bank
6. US imposes AI data centre tax
Outrageous prediction: With tech giants sucking up power supplies for their new AI data centres, utility bills skyrocket and an outraged public demands action.
“In response, many local authorities move in to protect political constituents, slapping huge taxes and even fines on the largest data centres in a move to subsidise lower power prices for households,” Mr Hansen says.
Market impact: A massive boom in US investment in power infrastructure. Tesla’s accelerating Megapack gets increasing attention. Long-term US natural gas prices more than double.
7. A natural disaster bankrupts a large US insurer
Outrageous prediction: After a year of wild weather in 2024, a catastrophic storm hits the US in 2025, sinking a large insurer that has underestimated climate change risks.
“With insufficient reserves to cover claims and inadequate reinsurance to mitigate the costs of this extreme event, panic spreads across the entire industry. A crisis unfolds, prompting government-level discussions on whether to bail out the failing company and the other walking wounded in the industry to prevent widespread risk contagion,” Mr Hardy says.
Market impact: Berkshire Hathaway shares rise as Warren Buffett’s company has enough capital to weather the panic and gain market share.
8. Pound erases post-Brexit discounts vs euro
Outrageous prediction: As Europe’s economy struggles, fresh fiscal policy winds are blowing in the UK, driving sterling back to levels versus the euro not seen since before Brexit.
“The new UK Labour government announced budget priorities ahead of 2025 that avoided the most growth-damaging types of tax hikes on income, while trimming the least productive public sector spending in moving to shrinking its deficits,” Mr Hardy says.
Market impact: Encouraging domestic investment and a more robust growth outlook support sterling versus the flailing euro, seeing the euro/sterling rate fall as low as 0.7500, below the rate the day before the Brexit vote at 0.76. The UK FTSE 100 posts a strong performance.
