The world will move urgently to find alternatives to the US dollar as the Donald Trump administration will slap huge tariffs on the global financial system, according to Saxo Bank's annual Outrageous Predictions report for 2025.
The Danish investment bank’s list of eight events that are unlikely to occur in 2025 – but would send shock waves through global financial markets if they did – also includes Nvidia ballooning to twice the value of Apple, China unveiling a $7 trillion stimulus to reflate the economy, the first human heart being bio-printed and an electrification boom ending Opec.
“While we don’t know which stories will drive the global economy in the coming year, our 2025 predictions, from Nvidia trouncing its Magnificent 7 peers to the fall of Opec, from a bold bet on reflation in China to a great leap forward in biotech, are just as promised: outrageous,” says John Hardy, chief macro strategist at Saxo Bank.
Mr Trump has also threatened to levy an additional 10 per cent tariffs on goods from China and 25 per cent tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada if those countries do not do more to stem the flow of illegal drugs and undocumented migrants across US borders.
Here are Saxo Bank’s eight outrageous forecasts for 2025:
1. Trump 2.0 blows up the dollar
Outrageous prediction: As the new Donald Trump administration turns the global financial system on its head with huge tariffs, the world will move urgently to find alternatives to the dollar.
China and the Brics+ transact with gold-backed digital money and, to a degree, directly in a new gold-backed offshore yuan. Europe rebases its trading relationships increasingly in the euro. Gold-linked crypto stablecoins add to the mix.
Market impact: The crypto market quadruples to more than $10 trillion, and the US dollar falls 20 per cent against major currencies and 30 per cent versus gold.
2. Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, Nvidia’s success is supercharged further with the availability in volume of its 208-billion transistor Blackwell chip.
“With the intensifying AI arms race and as AI data centre electricity costs have soared, the insatiable demand for the more powerful and yet less power-hungry Blackwell chips sees Nvidia taking the crown as the most profitable company of all time,” Mr Hardy says.
“It handily surpasses Apple’s record $105 billion of profits next year, and with far faster growth baked into expectations, its market cap nearly doubles again, making it twice the size of Apple. This sees it tower above all other companies in the world at a value of $7 trillion, or 10 per cent of the global equity market.”
Market impact: Nvidia shares trade well north of $250 before the market begins to question its potential to grab a greater share of corporate profits and as regulatory scrutiny on its monopoly status tempers the outlook.
3. China unleashes $7 trillion stimulus
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, China unleashes fiscal initiatives that add up to promises of more than CNY 50 trillion (about $7 trillion) in 2025 and the following years.
“Much of the spending goes directly into consumers' pockets via e-CNY digital currency, so that it will be injected straight into the economy rather than to pay off debt,” says Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist, Saxo Bank.
Market impact: A strong reflationary impact in China and the world, outperformance of emerging markets relative to developed markets and China in particular, higher commodity prices globally, and a stronger Chinese renminbi.
4. First human heart is bio-printed
Outrageous prediction: Researchers successfully bio-print a fully functional human heart using advanced 3D bioprinting technology in 2025.
“This achievement promises to alleviate the global shortage of donor organs by providing bio-printed hearts tailored to the DNA of individual patients. This breakthrough paves the way for extending human longevity,” says Koen Hoorelbeke, investment and options strategist at Saxo Bank.
Market impact: The success in bio-printed organs raises growth expectations for the biotechnology and 3D printing sectors. Most companies in this space are in the start-up phase but watch for a rash of initial public offerings.
5. Electrification boom ends Opec
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, with the writing on the wall on the forward demand picture since two-thirds of oil ends up as petrol or diesel in cars and lorries, Opec finds its relevance shrinking further and its multimillion barrel per day production limits irrelevant.
“With some members already cheating production quotas to grab what income they can and export demand falling, a majority of members quickly realise the jig is up. Amid the bickering and infighting, key members leave,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
“This consigns Opec to the ash heap of history. Former members max out production to ensure market share, driving a large drop in oil prices.”
Market impact: Crude oil slumps in price, a boon for airlines, chemical, paint and tyre manufacturers, and freight and logistics companies. But the market balances quickly, and oil prices stabilise as higher-cost suppliers, especially in North America, shut down expensive shale oil production.
In 2025, with the writing on the wall on the forward demand picture, Opec finds its relevance shrinking further
Ole Hansen,
head of commoditiy strategy, Saxo Bank
6. US imposes AI data centre tax
Outrageous prediction: With tech giants sucking up power supplies for their new AI data centres, utility bills skyrocket and an outraged public demands action.
“In response, many local authorities move in to protect political constituents, slapping huge taxes and even fines on the largest data centres in a move to subsidise lower power prices for households,” Mr Hansen says.
Market impact: A massive boom in US investment in power infrastructure. Tesla’s accelerating Megapack gets increasing attention. Long-term US natural gas prices more than double.
7. A natural disaster bankrupts a large US insurer
Outrageous prediction: After a year of wild weather in 2024, a catastrophic storm hits the US in 2025, sinking a large insurer that has underestimated climate change risks.
“With insufficient reserves to cover claims and inadequate reinsurance to mitigate the costs of this extreme event, panic spreads across the entire industry. A crisis unfolds, prompting government-level discussions on whether to bail out the failing company and the other walking wounded in the industry to prevent widespread risk contagion,” Mr Hardy says.
Market impact: Berkshire Hathaway shares rise as Warren Buffett’s company has enough capital to weather the panic and gain market share.
8. Pound erases post-Brexit discounts vs euro
Outrageous prediction: As Europe’s economy struggles, fresh fiscal policy winds are blowing in the UK, driving sterling back to levels versus the euro not seen since before Brexit.
“The new UK Labour government announced budget priorities ahead of 2025 that avoided the most growth-damaging types of tax hikes on income, while trimming the least productive public sector spending in moving to shrinking its deficits,” Mr Hardy says.
Market impact: Encouraging domestic investment and a more robust growth outlook support sterling versus the flailing euro, seeing the euro/sterling rate fall as low as 0.7500, below the rate the day before the Brexit vote at 0.76. The UK FTSE 100 posts a strong performance.
The specs: 2018 Kia Picanto
Price: From Dh39,500
Engine: 1.2L inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Four-speed auto
Power: 86hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 122Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.0L / 100km
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Ordinary Virtues: Moral Order in a Divided World by Michael Ignatieff
Harvard University Press
Company Profile
Name: JustClean
Based: Kuwait with offices in other GCC countries
Launch year: 2016
Number of employees: 130
Sector: online laundry service
Funding: $12.9m from Kuwait-based Faith Capital Holding
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
WHAT ARE NFTs?
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are tokens that represent ownership of unique items. They allow the tokenisation of things such as art, collectibles and even real estate.
An NFT can have only one official owner at one time. And since they're minted and secured on the Ethereum blockchain, no one can modify the record of ownership, not even copy-paste it into a new one.
This means NFTs are not interchangeable and cannot be exchanged with other items. In contrast, fungible items, such as fiat currencies, can be exchanged because their value defines them rather than their unique properties.
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Tabby%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%20August%202019%3B%20platform%20went%20live%20in%20February%202020%3Cbr%3EFounder%2FCEO%3A%20Hosam%20Arab%2C%20co-founder%3A%20Daniil%20Barkalov%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Payments%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2040-50%20employees%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Arbor%20Ventures%2C%20Mubadala%20Capital%2C%20Wamda%20Capital%2C%20STV%2C%20Raed%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Founders%20Capital%2C%20JIMCO%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Outliers%20VC%2C%20MSA%20Capital%2C%20HOF%20and%20AB%20Accelerator.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
6pm: Dubai Trophy – Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Silent Speech, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby
(trainer)
6.35pm: Jumeirah Derby Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (T)
1,800m
Winner: Island Falcon, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Dirt)
1,400m
Winner: Rawy, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer
7.45pm: Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Desert Fire, Hector Crouch, Saeed bin Suroor
8.20pm: Al Fahidi Fort – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Naval Crown, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.55pm: Dubawi Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Al Tariq, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watsons
9.30pm: Aliyah – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Dubai Icon, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
Oscars in the UAE
The 90th Academy Awards will be aired in the UAE from 3.30am on Monday, March 5 on OSN, with the ceremony starting at 5am
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Poacher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERichie%20Mehta%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nimisha%20Sajayan%2C%20Roshan%20Mathew%2C%20Dibyendu%20Bhattacharya%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
