The world will move urgently to find alternatives to the US dollar as the Donald Trump administration will slap huge tariffs on the global financial system, according to Saxo Bank's annual Outrageous Predictions report for 2025.
The Danish investment bank’s list of eight events that are unlikely to occur in 2025 – but would send shock waves through global financial markets if they did – also includes Nvidia ballooning to twice the value of Apple, China unveiling a $7 trillion stimulus to reflate the economy, the first human heart being bio-printed and an electrification boom ending Opec.
“While we don’t know which stories will drive the global economy in the coming year, our 2025 predictions, from Nvidia trouncing its Magnificent 7 peers to the fall of Opec, from a bold bet on reflation in China to a great leap forward in biotech, are just as promised: outrageous,” says John Hardy, chief macro strategist at Saxo Bank.
Mr Trump has also threatened to levy an additional 10 per cent tariffs on goods from China and 25 per cent tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada if those countries do not do more to stem the flow of illegal drugs and undocumented migrants across US borders.
Here are Saxo Bank’s eight outrageous forecasts for 2025:
1. Trump 2.0 blows up the dollar
Outrageous prediction: As the new Donald Trump administration turns the global financial system on its head with huge tariffs, the world will move urgently to find alternatives to the dollar.
China and the Brics+ transact with gold-backed digital money and, to a degree, directly in a new gold-backed offshore yuan. Europe rebases its trading relationships increasingly in the euro. Gold-linked crypto stablecoins add to the mix.
Market impact: The crypto market quadruples to more than $10 trillion, and the US dollar falls 20 per cent against major currencies and 30 per cent versus gold.
2. Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, Nvidia’s success is supercharged further with the availability in volume of its 208-billion transistor Blackwell chip.
“With the intensifying AI arms race and as AI data centre electricity costs have soared, the insatiable demand for the more powerful and yet less power-hungry Blackwell chips sees Nvidia taking the crown as the most profitable company of all time,” Mr Hardy says.
“It handily surpasses Apple’s record $105 billion of profits next year, and with far faster growth baked into expectations, its market cap nearly doubles again, making it twice the size of Apple. This sees it tower above all other companies in the world at a value of $7 trillion, or 10 per cent of the global equity market.”
Market impact: Nvidia shares trade well north of $250 before the market begins to question its potential to grab a greater share of corporate profits and as regulatory scrutiny on its monopoly status tempers the outlook.
3. China unleashes $7 trillion stimulus
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, China unleashes fiscal initiatives that add up to promises of more than CNY 50 trillion (about $7 trillion) in 2025 and the following years.
“Much of the spending goes directly into consumers' pockets via e-CNY digital currency, so that it will be injected straight into the economy rather than to pay off debt,” says Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist, Saxo Bank.
Market impact: A strong reflationary impact in China and the world, outperformance of emerging markets relative to developed markets and China in particular, higher commodity prices globally, and a stronger Chinese renminbi.
4. First human heart is bio-printed
Outrageous prediction: Researchers successfully bio-print a fully functional human heart using advanced 3D bioprinting technology in 2025.
“This achievement promises to alleviate the global shortage of donor organs by providing bio-printed hearts tailored to the DNA of individual patients. This breakthrough paves the way for extending human longevity,” says Koen Hoorelbeke, investment and options strategist at Saxo Bank.
Market impact: The success in bio-printed organs raises growth expectations for the biotechnology and 3D printing sectors. Most companies in this space are in the start-up phase but watch for a rash of initial public offerings.
5. Electrification boom ends Opec
Outrageous prediction: In 2025, with the writing on the wall on the forward demand picture since two-thirds of oil ends up as petrol or diesel in cars and lorries, Opec finds its relevance shrinking further and its multimillion barrel per day production limits irrelevant.
“With some members already cheating production quotas to grab what income they can and export demand falling, a majority of members quickly realise the jig is up. Amid the bickering and infighting, key members leave,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
“This consigns Opec to the ash heap of history. Former members max out production to ensure market share, driving a large drop in oil prices.”
Market impact: Crude oil slumps in price, a boon for airlines, chemical, paint and tyre manufacturers, and freight and logistics companies. But the market balances quickly, and oil prices stabilise as higher-cost suppliers, especially in North America, shut down expensive shale oil production.
In 2025, with the writing on the wall on the forward demand picture, Opec finds its relevance shrinking further
Ole Hansen,
head of commoditiy strategy, Saxo Bank
6. US imposes AI data centre tax
Outrageous prediction: With tech giants sucking up power supplies for their new AI data centres, utility bills skyrocket and an outraged public demands action.
“In response, many local authorities move in to protect political constituents, slapping huge taxes and even fines on the largest data centres in a move to subsidise lower power prices for households,” Mr Hansen says.
Market impact: A massive boom in US investment in power infrastructure. Tesla’s accelerating Megapack gets increasing attention. Long-term US natural gas prices more than double.
7. A natural disaster bankrupts a large US insurer
Outrageous prediction: After a year of wild weather in 2024, a catastrophic storm hits the US in 2025, sinking a large insurer that has underestimated climate change risks.
“With insufficient reserves to cover claims and inadequate reinsurance to mitigate the costs of this extreme event, panic spreads across the entire industry. A crisis unfolds, prompting government-level discussions on whether to bail out the failing company and the other walking wounded in the industry to prevent widespread risk contagion,” Mr Hardy says.
Market impact: Berkshire Hathaway shares rise as Warren Buffett’s company has enough capital to weather the panic and gain market share.
8. Pound erases post-Brexit discounts vs euro
Outrageous prediction: As Europe’s economy struggles, fresh fiscal policy winds are blowing in the UK, driving sterling back to levels versus the euro not seen since before Brexit.
“The new UK Labour government announced budget priorities ahead of 2025 that avoided the most growth-damaging types of tax hikes on income, while trimming the least productive public sector spending in moving to shrinking its deficits,” Mr Hardy says.
Market impact: Encouraging domestic investment and a more robust growth outlook support sterling versus the flailing euro, seeing the euro/sterling rate fall as low as 0.7500, below the rate the day before the Brexit vote at 0.76. The UK FTSE 100 posts a strong performance.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
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THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
