China's economy is bouncing back with strengthening manufacturing sector. EPA
China's economy is bouncing back with strengthening manufacturing sector. EPA
China's economy is bouncing back with strengthening manufacturing sector. EPA
China's economy is bouncing back with strengthening manufacturing sector. EPA

Global shares advance despite doubts over US-China trade deal


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World shares were eyeing two-year highs and a fourth straight week of gains on Friday despite fresh concerns over a report that cast doubt on the prospects for a long-term US-China trade deal.

Impeachment strains on Washington, the first day at the European Central Bank without Mario Draghi and monthly US jobs figures were all in the mix too. However, factors positively influencing the markets included the third US interest rate cut of the year and a surprise bounce in Chinese manufacturing activity.

Europe's Stoxx 600 index started 0.3 per cent higher, led by a 0.4 per cent rise in Germany's China-exposed firms after the overnight news that China's factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than two years last month.

That had helped Asia too. Chinese blue chips jumped 1.7 per cent in their best day since mid-August, Seoul's Kospi rose 0.77 per cent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.65 per cent despite data confirming protests there had pushed city into its first recession in a decade.

"The (Chinese) numbers are good given it came ahead of expectations and expansion is always a welcome," said David Madden, an analyst at CMC markets in London.

There had been a slight wobble in sentiment overnight after a Bloomberg report citing unnamed Chinese officials airing doubts over whether a comprehensive long-term trade deal is possible.

Efforts by Washington and Beijing to end their bruising nearly 16-month trade war had appeared on track on Thursday. US President Donald Trump said the two sides would soon announce a new venue for the signing of a "Phase One" trade deal, after protests in Chile had seen a planned summit there this month cancelled.

China's doubts were "not entirely unexpected", Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro, said in a note to clients, saying that the falls in equity markets overnight were relatively small.

"Either way, today's deluge of manufacturing PMI's and then US non-farm (payrolls) will be an important factor in where markets head next," he added.

Payrolls figures are always closely scrutinised by traders as they are seen as an up-to-date gauge of US economic health. Forecasts this time are for 89,000 new jobs last month which would be well below September's 136,000 and the recent average.

There also will be the ISM manufacturing PMI reading which is expected to see a rise to 48.9 from 47.8 in September. A separate PMI survey from the Chicago Fed on Thursday showed a sharper contraction in midwestern manufacturing activity for October.

The expectation of more soft data kept the dollar down against the yen at 107.97 and on track for its biggest weekly loss against the Japanese currency since October 4.

It was also at a 10-day low versus the euro at $1.1165, still struggling after the Federal Reserve had cut US interest rates for a third time this year on Wednesday.

Euro zone government bond yields steadied near two-week lows meanwhile, on course for their biggest weekly decline in five weeks as Christine Lagarde officially began her presidency of the ECB.

A decision to resume asset purchases this week has divided the central bank and fuelled a perception in markets that the bar to further monetary easing is now high.

Having discounted an ECB depo rate of close to -0.8 per cent just a couple of months ago, the market no longer expects another cut of 10 basis points in 2020.

"It's pretty clear that Lagarde has an uphill task in trying to promote unity that leads to a coherent set of policies going forward," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec. "Her own views can be characterised as continuity with" former ECB chief Mario Draghi.

Among the main commodities, oil prices were little changed on Friday but set for a slide of around 3.5 per cent on the week hurt by rising global supply and concerns about future demand.

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Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants

Arabian Gulf League fixtures:

Friday:

  • Emirates v Hatta, 5.15pm
  • Al Wahda v Al Dhafra, 5.25pm
  • Al Ain v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 8.15pm

Saturday:

  • Dibba v Ajman, 5.15pm
  • Sharjah v Al Wasl, 5.20pm
  • Al Jazira v Al Nasr, 8.15pm
Why it pays to compare

A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.

Route 1: bank transfer

The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.

Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount

Total received: €4,670.30 

Route 2: online platform

The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.

Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction

Total received: €4,756

The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.

SCHEDULE

December 8: UAE v USA (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)

December 9: USA v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)

December 11: UAE v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)

December 12: UAE v USA (ICC Academy Oval 1)

December 14: USA v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)

December 15: UAE v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)

All matches start at 10am

 

Our legal columnist

Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

Cricket World Cup League 2 Fixtures

Saturday March 5, UAE v Oman, ICC Academy (all matches start at 9.30am)

Sunday March 6, Oman v Namibia, ICC Academy

Tuesday March 8, UAE v Namibia, ICC Academy

Wednesday March 9, UAE v Oman, ICC Academy

Friday March 11, Oman v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium

Saturday March 12, UAE v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium

UAE squad

Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri, Muhammad Waseem, CP Rizwan, Vriitya Aravind, Asif Khan, Basil Hameed, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Karthik Meiyappan, Akif Raja, Rahul Bhatia

TV: World Cup Qualifier 2018 matches will be aired on on OSN Sports HD Cricket channel

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets