There is palpable anxiety among a number of America’s Arab allies about what the election of Joe Biden to the presidency will mean for the region. Conventional wisdom has it that a Democratic administration will revert back to former president Barack Obama’s more accommodating posture towards Iran. Memes depicting Biden locked in loving embrace with the Iranian side are flooding social media.
While the incoming administration will surely seek negotiations with Tehran -- it is worth noting that outgoing President Donald Trump had also pledged to do so -- it would be a mistake to conflate President-elect Biden’s prospective approach to the Middle East with that of Obama’s. When it comes to US foreign policy and the Middle East, Mr Biden is no Obama.
All recent presidential hopefuls since George W Bush, both Republican and Democratic, have promised to “end forever wars” and reduce the American footprint in the Middle East. This is partly due to changes in US geopolitical priorities stemming from the growing challenge posed by China and Russia as well as America’s greater energy independence. It is also a reflection of the deep scars the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan left on US public opinion. Scars that no presidential hopeful can ignore.
A Biden administration will be no different from its predecessors in pledging to tone down US involvement in the Middle East. Such policies, whether implemented or not, signal a continuity of US policy towards the region as it currently stands rather than a much feared shift.
A broader examination of Mr Biden’s track record reveals just how different his approach to foreign policy is in comparison to Mr Obama’s, let alone the far-left of the Democratic Party.
In the aftermath of 9/11, Mr Biden supported the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the first of which is now widely considered a strategic failure. The following year, after a visit to Fallujah he doubled down, urging then president George W Bush to send even more troops to quash the mounting insurgency. Similarly, Mr Biden had also lambasted then president Bill Clinton for not doing enough when Muslims were slaughtered in Bosnia. “We have turned our back on aggression, we have turned our back on atrocity, we have turned our backs on conscience,” Mr Biden bellowed in the early nineties.
The President-elect's liberal interventionist impulses are shaped by his many years on the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He has travelled the world for decades visiting conflict zones and building relationships with allies. Likewise his most senior foreign policy advisors Anthony Blinken, Jake Sullivan and others are well known among Washington’s mainstream foreign policy establishment.
This is in stark contrast to Mr Obama, his most senior advisors and the path they took to the White House. Whereas Mr Biden is the ultimate insider serving in the US Senate since 1973, Mr Obama was the ultimate outsider -- a young and little-known Senator from Illinois who rose to the presidency on the promise of sweeping change. His close confidants, particularly former deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes, made up for what they lacked in foreign policy experience by adopting dogmatic policies that upended longstanding bipartisan consensus towards rogue regimes like Iran and Cuba.
This does not necessarily mean the incoming Biden administration will avoid easing economic sanctions on Iran or seeking an end to the war in Yemen. A gradual reduction of sanctions may be in the offing if it is part of confidence-building measures should Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment and return to negotiations. But in an article published earlier this year, Mr Biden pledged to make Mr Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran the starting point for negotiations, not the final objective. Biden also promised to lengthen the controversial sunset clauses that Mr Obama agreed and to pressure Iran into curtailing its ballistic missile program as well as its destabilising regional activities. Both these issues were left largely unaddressed by Mr Obama.
Similarly Jake Sullivan, Mr Biden’s former national security advisor who is likely to be tapped for a senior administration position, recently emphasised that Biden will offer America’s allies the necessary support to negotiate a region-wide understanding with Iran. Such an approach is largely in line with requests from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and others to be at the negotiating table with Iran. This position is born of bitter experience when the Obama administration conducted its talks with Iran in secret.
A gradual reduction of sanctions may be in the offing if it is part of confidence-building measures should Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment and return to negotiations
President-elect Biden will also push to end the deeply unpopular war in Yemen. This would be largely welcomed, as the UAE has already drawn down its troops and Saudi Arabia has shown real commitment to obtaining a peaceful settlement by unilaterally extending several ceasefires to the Houthis. According to Sullivan, while the incoming administration will be firm, it will “deepen support for Saudi security concerns like Houthi missile attacks and threats from Iran, while also offering technical assistance to increase interdiction of Iranian weapon shipments.”
It is worth noting that the US is often described as the most difficult of partners. The current anxiety felt by many Arabs is justified in light of recent history and rising isolationist voices within the Democratic Party. But for all the talk about the rise of China, the return of Russia and diversifying foreign policy options away from the US, America remains the only indispensable power in the region.
During this moment of great American transition Arabs need not be shaken by ghosts of the past. Rather they should be inspired by the opportunities of new beginnings. Let this be a fresh start grounded in shared interests and the enduring challenge of common adversaries.
Firas Maksad is an adjunct professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School for International Affairs
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Overall head-to-head
Federer 6-1 Cilic
Head-to-head at Wimbledon
Federer 1-0 Cilic
Grand Slams titles
Federer 18-1 Cilic
Best Wimbledon performance
Federer: Winner (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012)
Cilic: Final (2017*)
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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Other simple ideas for sushi rice dishes
Cheat’s nigiri
This is easier to make than sushi rolls. With damp hands, form the cooled rice into small tablet shapes. Place slices of fresh, raw salmon, mackerel or trout (or smoked salmon) lightly touched with wasabi, then press, wasabi side-down, onto the rice. Serve with soy sauce and pickled ginger.
Easy omurice
This fusion dish combines Asian fried rice with a western omelette. To make, fry cooked and cooled sushi rice with chopped vegetables such as carrot and onion and lashings of sweet-tangy ketchup, then wrap in a soft egg omelette.
Deconstructed sushi salad platter
This makes a great, fuss-free sharing meal. Arrange sushi rice on a platter or board, then fill the space with all your favourite sushi ingredients (edamame beans, cooked prawns or tuna, tempura veggies, pickled ginger and chilli tofu), with a dressing or dipping sauce on the side.
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Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
Mobile phone packages comparison
The years Ramadan fell in May
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Pakistan World Cup squad
Sarfraz Ahmed (c), Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Abid Ali, Babar Azam, Haris Sohail, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Hafeez(subject to fitness), Imad Wasim, Shadab Khan, Hasan Ali, Faheem Ashraf, Junaid Khan, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Mohammad Hasnain
Two additions for England ODIs: Mohammad Amir and Asif Ali
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Profile of Whizkey
Date founded: 04 November 2017
Founders: Abdulaziz AlBlooshi and Harsh Hirani
Based: Dubai, UAE
Number of employees: 10
Sector: AI, software
Cashflow: Dh2.5 Million
Funding stage: Series A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
