Global banks in UK too big to lose

In the end, the banks always win. However much the blame piled on them for the recent global recession and the promise that they would pay dearly for it, they never seem to lose.

The interim report by the UK's independent commission on banking (ICB) last Monday appears to support this popular supposition.

Created last June by George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, to review the future of UK banking after the financial crisis, the commission's remit was to ensure "never again is a bank too big to fail".

Led by Sir John Vickers, a former head of the office of fair trading, the ICB had to devise a structure to ensure taxpayers would not be left to foot the bill should a bank fail.

Banks were braced for a report that would recommend proposals so tough they would be put at a competitive disadvantage to international rivals. HSBC and Barclays had already warned they would go offshore if this were to happen.

But the ICB recommendations were much less severe than many had expected. The banks' greatest concern - that they could be forced to break their retail operations from their riskier investment activities, meaning significant extra costs - has not been realised.

Instead, the ICB recommends for them to fence off the two arms to protect savers if the investment arm were to fail in the future. Banks will have to impose internal firewalls to stop savers' money being gambled on risky investments.

The banks were relieved and the markets were pleased. Bank shares surged on Monday with Barclays and the partly nationalised Royal Bank of Scotland rising about 3 per cent in early trading.

"Total separation of [retail and investment banking] is not necessary," Sir John told the BBC. "UK retail banking can be protected by its own capital cushion. Other parts of the bank should be allowed to fail."

The commission also wants banks to bolster their capital ratios in the retail divisions to 10 per cent, higher than the 7 per cent required by new European Commission rules, with creditors and not taxpayers being liable for any losses. It also wants to make it easier for customers to switch banks.

The state-backed Lloyds Banking Group appears to be the main loser, with the report recommending it sells more of its branches to increase competition.

Lloyds, which became so big after the previous Labour government overrode competition concerns to let HBOS be rescued in 2008, has already been told to sell 600 branches and reduce its 30 per cent share in the current account market.

Sir John has criticised the deal as being bad for competition and financial stability. But it must have been a relief for the bank that the report has not demanded the deal be unpicked.

Sir John has, however, vehemently denied criticisms that the recommendations are too timid and have not gone far enough to ensure consumer interest is served.

"I absolutely reject any notion that we bottled it," he said.

Industry analysts say the banks are secretly pleased with the proposals, even though outwardly the moaning continues, especially over the extra cost of separating the retail and investment units.

The British Bankers' Association laments the industry has already undergone a "significant change" since the financial crisis.

The ICB will publish its final report in September but the government is under no obligation to implement its recommendations. Mr Osborne has indicated he will welcome them with open arms.

He is not a popular man at the moment. The public blames his deep public spending cuts for their financial woes while the oil producers have strongly criticised him for the surprise windfall tax announced in the recent budget.

But the report appears to have spared him from more onslaught, this time the banking industry.

"This coalition government set up the independent commission on banking to ask the difficult questions that weren't asked before the crisis, and that is exactly what they have done," said Mr Osborne.

Sir John has insisted that "in no sense at all are these half measures … these are absolutely far-reaching reforms". But he did not rule out changes beyond the ICB's recommendations.

"Strict separation and much, much higher capital requirements - those options are not off the table," Sir John said.

Strong words, but what's the bet that the banks will win in the end?

With London being one of the world's leading financial centres, the government simply cannot afford for it to be otherwise.