Omicron: how transmissible is Covid-19 variant and which countries have confirmed cases?


Jamie Goodwin
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Live updates: follow the latest news on Covid-19 variant Omicron

As new cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant are detected around the world, scientists now think it will take about two weeks to gather conclusive information, including how contagious it is.

"We don’t yet know whether Omicron is associated with more transmission, severe Covid-19 disease, risk of reinfections or risk of evading vaccines. Scientists at WHO and around the are working urgently to answer these questions," said Dr Tedros Andhanom, Director General of the World Health Organisation, speaking at the World Health Assembly on Monday.

Since its discovery only days ago by researchers in South Africa, governments have rushed to close borders as cases are discovered in countries on either side of the globe.

Here is a look at what we now know about Omicron so far:

How transmissible is the variant?

Scientists know that Omicron is genetically distinct from previous variants including the Beta and Delta variants, but do not know if these genetic changes make it any more transmissible or dangerous. So far, there is no indication the variant causes more severe disease.

US chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci told President Joe Biden on Sunday that it will take about two weeks to have more definitive information about the transmissibility and other characteristics of the Covid-19 Omicron variant, the White House said in a statement.

Dr Fauci also told President Biden “he continues to believe that existing vaccines are likely to provide a degree of protection against severe cases of Covid”.

“It’s going to give us a period of time to enhance our preparedness,” Dr Fauci told ABC’s This Week.

Dr Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health in the US, said there is no data yet that suggests the new variant causes more serious illness than previous Covid-19 variants.

“I do think it’s more contagious when you look at how rapidly it spread through multiple districts in South Africa,” Dr Collins told CNN.

The EU said it needs time to properly assess the implications of the variant. The bloc will push for greater vaccination rates, said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She said time should be spent focusing on precautionary action such as increasing the rate of vaccinations and of booster shots.

Where has Omicron been detected?

Since the first cases were detected in South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong earlier this week, cases have also been reported in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, Australia and the UK.

The Netherlands reported 13 Omicron cases on Sunday.

Six cases were identified in Scotland on Monday, the Scottish government said, adding that public health officials were working to establish the circumstances.

Canada’s first two cases were found in Ontario after two people who had recently travelled from Nigeria tested positive.

Australia has announced a third case as government leaders reconsidered plans to relax border restrictions this week. Arrivals from nine African countries are now required to quarantine in a hotel upon arrival.

Two German states reported a total of three cases in returning travellers at the weekend.

In Hong Kong, the two people who tested positive for the Omicron variant had received the Pfizer vaccine and exhibited very mild symptoms, such as a sore throat, said David Hui, a respiratory medicine expert and government adviser on the pandemic.

No cases have yet been discovered in the US, but Dr Fauci said: “Inevitably, it will be here.”

How have countries responded?

Israel moved to ban entry by foreigners and mandate quarantine for all citizens arriving from abroad.

Morocco said it would suspend all incoming flights for two weeks starting on Monday — among the most drastic of a growing list of travel measures being imposed around the world.

The UK, the US, Australia and the UAE have suspended travel to southern Africa.

Japan will suspend entry of all foreign visitors from around the world. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the measure will take effect Tuesday.

Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Brazil, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Guatemala, Iran, Ireland, Italy, Jordan, the Netherlands, Oman, the Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka and Thailand have also restricted travel to Africa.

South Korea has shelved plans to further relax measures due to the strain on its healthcare system from rising hospitalisation and death rates as well as the threat posed by the new variant.

The World Health Organisation said the variant is likely to spread internationally, posing a “very high” global risk and meaning that Covid-19 surges could have “severe consequences” in some areas.

Are the travel bans justified?

Passengers wearing personal protective equipment queue to check-in for their flight at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport. AFP
Passengers wearing personal protective equipment queue to check-in for their flight at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport. AFP

Restricting travel from the region is “prudent” and would buy authorities more time, said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases expert at Imperial College London.

Jeffrey Barrett, director of Covid-19 Genetics at the Welcome Sanger Institute, said the early detection of the new variant could mean restrictions taken now would have a bigger impact than when the Delta variant first emerged.

“With Delta, it took many, many weeks into India’s terrible wave before it became clear what was going on and Delta had already seeded itself in many places in the world and it was too late to do anything about it,” he said. “We may be at an earlier point with this new variant so there may still be time to do something about it.”

What other measures have been taken?

The UK has tightened rules on mask-wearing and on testing of international arrivals after finding two Omicron cases, but Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the government was nowhere near reinstating work-from-home or more severe social-distancing measures.

Spain announced it will not admit unvaccinated British visitors starting on Wednesday. Italy was going through lists of airline passengers who arrived in the past two weeks. France is continuing to push vaccinations and booster shots.

Trump v Khan

2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US

2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks

2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit

2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”

2022:  Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency

July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”

Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.

Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Retirement funds heavily invested in equities at a risky time

Pension funds in growing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have a sharply higher percentage of assets parked in stocks, just at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail markets.

Retirement money managers in 14 geographies now allocate 40 per cent of their assets to equities, an 8 percentage-point climb over the past five years, according to a Mercer survey released last week that canvassed government, corporate and mandatory pension funds with almost $5 trillion in assets under management. That compares with about 25 per cent for pension funds in Europe.

The escalating trade spat between the US and China has heightened fears that stocks are ripe for a downturn. With tensions mounting and outcomes driven more by politics than economics, the S&P 500 Index will be on course for a “full-scale bear market” without Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, Citigroup’s global macro strategy team said earlier this week.

The increased allocation to equities by growth-market pension funds has come at the expense of fixed-income investments, which declined 11 percentage points over the five years, according to the survey.

Hong Kong funds have the highest exposure to equities at 66 per cent, although that’s been relatively stable over the period. Japan’s equity allocation jumped 13 percentage points while South Korea’s increased 8 percentage points.

The money managers are also directing a higher portion of their funds to assets outside of their home countries. On average, foreign stocks now account for 49 per cent of respondents’ equity investments, 4 percentage points higher than five years ago, while foreign fixed-income exposure climbed 7 percentage points to 23 per cent. Funds in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are among those seeking greater diversification in stocks and fixed income.

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Updated: December 01, 2021, 4:21 AM