• A security guard stands outside the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market on January 24, where the coronavirus was detected in Wuhan. AFP
    A security guard stands outside the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market on January 24, where the coronavirus was detected in Wuhan. AFP
  • Personnel in biological hazard suits await passengers evacuated from Wuhan on January 29. AFP
    Personnel in biological hazard suits await passengers evacuated from Wuhan on January 29. AFP
  • A visitor wearing a protective face mask at the Arab Health conference held at Dubai World Trade Centre in Dubai on January 29, 2020. Pawan Singh / The National
    A visitor wearing a protective face mask at the Arab Health conference held at Dubai World Trade Centre in Dubai on January 29, 2020. Pawan Singh / The National
  • A woman wears a plastic water bottle with a cutout to cover her face, as she walks on a footbridge in Hong Kong on January 31, 2020, as a preventative measure following a virus outbreak which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan. AFP
    A woman wears a plastic water bottle with a cutout to cover her face, as she walks on a footbridge in Hong Kong on January 31, 2020, as a preventative measure following a virus outbreak which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan. AFP
  • A shopper wearing a protective facemask sorts items in her trolley as she stands next to bare supermarket shelves, usually stocked with toilet paper and kitchen rolls, in Hong Kong on February 6, 2020. AFP
    A shopper wearing a protective facemask sorts items in her trolley as she stands next to bare supermarket shelves, usually stocked with toilet paper and kitchen rolls, in Hong Kong on February 6, 2020. AFP
  • A drawing of the late ophthalmologist Li Wenliang with flower bouquets at the Houhu Branch of Wuhan Central Hospital in Wuhan in China's central Hubei province, February 7, 2020. Li, a doctor who was punished after raising the alarm about the new coronavirus, died on February 7 after being infected by the pathogen. AFP
    A drawing of the late ophthalmologist Li Wenliang with flower bouquets at the Houhu Branch of Wuhan Central Hospital in Wuhan in China's central Hubei province, February 7, 2020. Li, a doctor who was punished after raising the alarm about the new coronavirus, died on February 7 after being infected by the pathogen. AFP
  • Liu Yujia, the first person in the UAE to recover from coronavirus is congratulated by Consul General Li Xuhang of China and Dr Hussein Al Rand, assistant undersecretary of the Ministry of Health and Prevention, on February 9, 2020. Wam
    Liu Yujia, the first person in the UAE to recover from coronavirus is congratulated by Consul General Li Xuhang of China and Dr Hussein Al Rand, assistant undersecretary of the Ministry of Health and Prevention, on February 9, 2020. Wam
  • Iranian Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi wipes the sweat off his face, during a press conference with the Islamic republic's government spokesman Ali Rabiei in the capital Tehran on February 24, 2020. Iran's deputy health minister confirmed on February 25, that he has tested positive for the coronavirus. AFP
    Iranian Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi wipes the sweat off his face, during a press conference with the Islamic republic's government spokesman Ali Rabiei in the capital Tehran on February 24, 2020. Iran's deputy health minister confirmed on February 25, that he has tested positive for the coronavirus. AFP
  • A nurse wearing protective mask and gear comforts another as they change shifts on March 13, 2020 at the Cremona hospital, southeast of Milan, Lombardy, during the country's lockdown. AFP
    A nurse wearing protective mask and gear comforts another as they change shifts on March 13, 2020 at the Cremona hospital, southeast of Milan, Lombardy, during the country's lockdown. AFP
  • People clap from balconies in a show of appreciation for health care workers in Mumbai, India, on March 22, 2020. AP Photo
    People clap from balconies in a show of appreciation for health care workers in Mumbai, India, on March 22, 2020. AP Photo
  • Gonzaga Yiga, a 49-year-old community chairperson, appeals to residents through a speaker from the tallest building of the area in morning and evening, on how to curb the coronavirus, in Kampala, Uganda, on March 24, 2020. AFP
    Gonzaga Yiga, a 49-year-old community chairperson, appeals to residents through a speaker from the tallest building of the area in morning and evening, on how to curb the coronavirus, in Kampala, Uganda, on March 24, 2020. AFP
  • Sanitation workers from Tadweer in formation on the first day of the UAE cleaning campaign on March 27, 2020. Victor Besa / The National
    Sanitation workers from Tadweer in formation on the first day of the UAE cleaning campaign on March 27, 2020. Victor Besa / The National
  • Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson on a screen as he remotely chairs the morning coronavirus meeting by video link, in Downing Street in central London, on March 28, 2020. The two men leading Britain's fight against the coronavirus, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Health Secretary Matt Hancock, both announced they had tested positive. AFP
    Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson on a screen as he remotely chairs the morning coronavirus meeting by video link, in Downing Street in central London, on March 28, 2020. The two men leading Britain's fight against the coronavirus, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Health Secretary Matt Hancock, both announced they had tested positive. AFP
  • A South African policeman points his pump rifle to disperse a crowd of shoppers in Yeoville, Johannesburg, on March 28, 2020 while trying to enforce a safety distance outside a supermarket. AFP
    A South African policeman points his pump rifle to disperse a crowd of shoppers in Yeoville, Johannesburg, on March 28, 2020 while trying to enforce a safety distance outside a supermarket. AFP
  • Police inspector Rajesh Babu wearing a coronavirus-themed helmet speaks to a family on a motorbike at a checkpoint during a government-imposed nationwide lockdown in Chennai, India on March 28, 2020. AFP
    Police inspector Rajesh Babu wearing a coronavirus-themed helmet speaks to a family on a motorbike at a checkpoint during a government-imposed nationwide lockdown in Chennai, India on March 28, 2020. AFP
  • The new screening drive through at Zayed Sports City, Abu Dhabi, on March 29, 2020. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    The new screening drive through at Zayed Sports City, Abu Dhabi, on March 29, 2020. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • An inhabitant of the residence Maison Blanche, composed of 226 mostly unsanitary dwellings, collects food offered by neighbours from his balcony, using a rope made with blankets, on March 31, 2020, in Marseille, southern France. AFP
    An inhabitant of the residence Maison Blanche, composed of 226 mostly unsanitary dwellings, collects food offered by neighbours from his balcony, using a rope made with blankets, on March 31, 2020, in Marseille, southern France. AFP
  • Bodies are moved to a refrigeration truck serving as a temporary morgue at Wyckoff Hospital in the Borough of Brooklyn on April 6, 2020 in New York. AFP
    Bodies are moved to a refrigeration truck serving as a temporary morgue at Wyckoff Hospital in the Borough of Brooklyn on April 6, 2020 in New York. AFP
  • Health workers cry during a memorial for their co-worker Esteban, a nurse who died, at the Severo Ochoa Hospital in Leganes in Leganes, Spain, on April 10, 2020. AP Photo
    Health workers cry during a memorial for their co-worker Esteban, a nurse who died, at the Severo Ochoa Hospital in Leganes in Leganes, Spain, on April 10, 2020. AP Photo
  • A Palestinian mother entertains her children with makeshift masks made of cabbage as she cooks in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on April 16, 2020. AFP
    A Palestinian mother entertains her children with makeshift masks made of cabbage as she cooks in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip on April 16, 2020. AFP
  • Health care workers stand in the street in counter-protest to hundreds of people who gathered at the State Capitol to demand the stay-at-home order be lifted in Denver, Colorado, US. April 19, 2020. Reuters
    Health care workers stand in the street in counter-protest to hundreds of people who gathered at the State Capitol to demand the stay-at-home order be lifted in Denver, Colorado, US. April 19, 2020. Reuters
  • Members of the NYPD Honor Guard, wearing masks, prepare for the funeral of Traffic Section Commander Mohammed Chowdhury in New York, on April 22, 2020. AP Photo
    Members of the NYPD Honor Guard, wearing masks, prepare for the funeral of Traffic Section Commander Mohammed Chowdhury in New York, on April 22, 2020. AP Photo
  • A sign indicates that Bondi Beach is closed as a surfer arrives for the 7am opening in Sydney on April 28, 2020. AP Photo
    A sign indicates that Bondi Beach is closed as a surfer arrives for the 7am opening in Sydney on April 28, 2020. AP Photo
  • The iconic Christ the Redeemer statue is lit up as if wearing a protective mask and with a slogan that reads in Portuguese: "Mask saves," in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on May 3, 2020. AP Photo
    The iconic Christ the Redeemer statue is lit up as if wearing a protective mask and with a slogan that reads in Portuguese: "Mask saves," in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on May 3, 2020. AP Photo
  • A medical worker takes a swab from a resident during home visits in Wuhan, the epicentre of China's coronavirus outbreak, in the central Hubei province, on May 14, 2020. AP
    A medical worker takes a swab from a resident during home visits in Wuhan, the epicentre of China's coronavirus outbreak, in the central Hubei province, on May 14, 2020. AP
  • Guests watch the "Trolls World Tour" movie in the rain at the Four Brothers Drive In Theatre on May 15, 2020, in Amenia, NY. AP Photo
    Guests watch the "Trolls World Tour" movie in the rain at the Four Brothers Drive In Theatre on May 15, 2020, in Amenia, NY. AP Photo
  • People are seen practising social distancing in white circles in Domino Park, on May 17, 2020 the in Brooklyn borough of New York City. AFP
    People are seen practising social distancing in white circles in Domino Park, on May 17, 2020 the in Brooklyn borough of New York City. AFP
  • View of the Intensive Care Unit treating coronavirus patients in the Gilberto Novaes Hospital in Manaus, Brazil, on May 20, 2020. AFP
    View of the Intensive Care Unit treating coronavirus patients in the Gilberto Novaes Hospital in Manaus, Brazil, on May 20, 2020. AFP
  • Rectangles designed to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus by encouraging social distancing are drawn in a city-sanctioned homeless encampment at San Francisco's Civic Centre on May 21, 2020. AP Photo
    Rectangles designed to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus by encouraging social distancing are drawn in a city-sanctioned homeless encampment at San Francisco's Civic Centre on May 21, 2020. AP Photo
  • Government health workers visit riverside communities of the municipality of Melgaco to test them for coronavirus infections in the Marajoara region, located in the southwest of the island of Marajo, at the mouth of the Amazon River in the state of Para, Brazil, on May 23, 2020. AFP
    Government health workers visit riverside communities of the municipality of Melgaco to test them for coronavirus infections in the Marajoara region, located in the southwest of the island of Marajo, at the mouth of the Amazon River in the state of Para, Brazil, on May 23, 2020. AFP
  • People attend a rave in boats of all sizes to give support to Berlin's world renowned dance clubs which were struggling due to the pandemic on the Landwehr canal on May 31, 2020 in Berlin's Kreuzberg district. AFP
    People attend a rave in boats of all sizes to give support to Berlin's world renowned dance clubs which were struggling due to the pandemic on the Landwehr canal on May 31, 2020 in Berlin's Kreuzberg district. AFP
  • Children run down a street past an informational mural warning people about the dangers of coronavirus in the Kibera slum of Nairobi, Kenya on Wednesday, June 3, 2020. AP Photo
    Children run down a street past an informational mural warning people about the dangers of coronavirus in the Kibera slum of Nairobi, Kenya on Wednesday, June 3, 2020. AP Photo
  • A man on a balcony watches the second-division game between Rayo Vallecano and Albacete in Madrid, Spain, on June 10, 2020. AP Photo
    A man on a balcony watches the second-division game between Rayo Vallecano and Albacete in Madrid, Spain, on June 10, 2020. AP Photo
  • Irish Paralympic hopeful Leo Hynes, who is legally blind, trains in his home-made training pool in his front garden at home in Tuam, Co Galway, west Ireland, on June 18, 2020. AFP
    Irish Paralympic hopeful Leo Hynes, who is legally blind, trains in his home-made training pool in his front garden at home in Tuam, Co Galway, west Ireland, on June 18, 2020. AFP
  • The Uceli Quartet perform for an audience made of plants during a concert created by Spanish artist Eugenio Ampudia and that would be later streamed to mark the reopening of the Liceu Grand Theatre in Barcelona on June 22, 2020. AFP
    The Uceli Quartet perform for an audience made of plants during a concert created by Spanish artist Eugenio Ampudia and that would be later streamed to mark the reopening of the Liceu Grand Theatre in Barcelona on June 22, 2020. AFP
  • Agustina Canamero, 81, and Pascual Perez, 84, hug and kiss through a plastic film screen to avoid contracting the coronavirus at a nursing home in Barcelona, Spain, on June 22, 2020. AP Photo
    Agustina Canamero, 81, and Pascual Perez, 84, hug and kiss through a plastic film screen to avoid contracting the coronavirus at a nursing home in Barcelona, Spain, on June 22, 2020. AP Photo
  • Romelia Navarro, 64, weeps while hugging her husband, Antonio, in his final moments in a Covid-19 unit at St Jude Medical Centre in Fullerton, California, on July 31, 2020. AP Photo
    Romelia Navarro, 64, weeps while hugging her husband, Antonio, in his final moments in a Covid-19 unit at St Jude Medical Centre in Fullerton, California, on July 31, 2020. AP Photo
  • Muslim pilgrims circumambulating around the Kaaba at the centre of the Grand Mosque in the holy city of Makkah, on August 2, 2020. AFP
    Muslim pilgrims circumambulating around the Kaaba at the centre of the Grand Mosque in the holy city of Makkah, on August 2, 2020. AFP
  • Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro puts on a mask during the inauguration of the new General Abreu civic-military school in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 14, 2020. AP Photo
    Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro puts on a mask during the inauguration of the new General Abreu civic-military school in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 14, 2020. AP Photo
  • The first day back at school at Gems Wellington Academy in Al Khail, Duba on August 30, 2020. Antonie Robertson / The National
    The first day back at school at Gems Wellington Academy in Al Khail, Duba on August 30, 2020. Antonie Robertson / The National
  • An Iraqi family mourns around the coffin of a relative, who died of the coronavirus, during a reburial ceremony at the vast Wadi al-Salam cemetery in the Shiite holy city of Najaf on September 11, 2020. AFP
    An Iraqi family mourns around the coffin of a relative, who died of the coronavirus, during a reburial ceremony at the vast Wadi al-Salam cemetery in the Shiite holy city of Najaf on September 11, 2020. AFP
  • Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed,, Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the UAE, as he virtually addresses the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly, on September 29, 2020, in New York. AFP
    Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed,, Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the UAE, as he virtually addresses the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly, on September 29, 2020, in New York. AFP
  • Medical workers celebrate as the last three patients are released from a field hospital at the National Stadium Mane Garrincha, after recuperating from Covid-19, in Brasilia, Brazil, on October 15, 2020. AP Photo
    Medical workers celebrate as the last three patients are released from a field hospital at the National Stadium Mane Garrincha, after recuperating from Covid-19, in Brasilia, Brazil, on October 15, 2020. AP Photo
  • A woman speaks affectionately to a horse named "Tony" at the Maria Vieira Bazani nursing home in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 22, 2020. AP Photo
    A woman speaks affectionately to a horse named "Tony" at the Maria Vieira Bazani nursing home in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on October 22, 2020. AP Photo
  • People wear face masks while watching the marine life at Ripley's Aquarium of Canada in Toronto, on October 28, 2020. AP
    People wear face masks while watching the marine life at Ripley's Aquarium of Canada in Toronto, on October 28, 2020. AP
  • A technician sprays disinfectant as mourners pray over the body of a person who died, at the Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery on the outskirts of the Iranian capital, Tehran on November 1, 2020. AP Photo
    A technician sprays disinfectant as mourners pray over the body of a person who died, at the Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery on the outskirts of the Iranian capital, Tehran on November 1, 2020. AP Photo
  • Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Ruler of Dubai, receives the Sinopharm vaccine on November 3, 2020. Courtesy: Dubai Media Office
    Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Ruler of Dubai, receives the Sinopharm vaccine on November 3, 2020. Courtesy: Dubai Media Office
  • People dance at a nightclub, almost a year after the global outbreak of the coronavirus disease in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, on December 12, 2020. Reuters
    People dance at a nightclub, almost a year after the global outbreak of the coronavirus disease in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, on December 12, 2020. Reuters
  • Medical workers of the Covid-19 intensive care unit at the Santo Stefano hospital in Prato, near Florence, Tuscany, pose wearing their PPE with photos of themselves printed on it, on December 17, 2020 at the hospital in Prato. AFP
    Medical workers of the Covid-19 intensive care unit at the Santo Stefano hospital in Prato, near Florence, Tuscany, pose wearing their PPE with photos of themselves printed on it, on December 17, 2020 at the hospital in Prato. AFP
  • D-Day veteran and Chelsea Pensioner Bob James Sullivan, 98, a resident at the Royal Hospital Chelsea, is applauded by staff after receiving an injection of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine from Pippa Nightingale, Chief Nurse at the nearby Chelsea and Westminster Hospital on December 23, 2020. Chelsea Pensioners are all former soldiers of the British Army over the age of 65, who reside at the Royal Hospital Chelsea, founded by King Charles II in 1682, and wear a uniform which includes a scarlet coat. Getty Images
    D-Day veteran and Chelsea Pensioner Bob James Sullivan, 98, a resident at the Royal Hospital Chelsea, is applauded by staff after receiving an injection of the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine from Pippa Nightingale, Chief Nurse at the nearby Chelsea and Westminster Hospital on December 23, 2020. Chelsea Pensioners are all former soldiers of the British Army over the age of 65, who reside at the Royal Hospital Chelsea, founded by King Charles II in 1682, and wear a uniform which includes a scarlet coat. Getty Images

The world in 2021: what year two of the coronavirus pandemic may look like


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One sure-fire prediction for 2021 is that Covid-19 will be the biggest health story of the year.

What is worryingly far from clear is how much closer we will be to ending the pandemic a year from now.

But as vaccines start to come on line, the signs are that the answer will lie in decisions made not by scientists or politicians, but each one of us.

Here we look at what the year ahead could hold for us.

An epidemic of errors

Last December, when doctors in Wuhan, central China, first reported cases of a mysterious respiratory illness caused a new virus, the official response was denial – followed by reprimands for spreading false rumours.

Beyond China, the outbreak initially sparked little concern. Inoculated through years of reports of viruses flaring up and fading away again, Covid-19 was put into the same box as Sars, Mers and swine-flu: nasty pieces of work if you get them - which you almost certainly won’t.

Of all the insights about Covid-19 gleaned in 2020, the most critical has been that this virus metes out severe punishment to the complacent and careless

That complacency vanished last January, as outbreaks emerged around the world and China put 60 million of its citizens under lockdown.

But as governments turned to the global research community for answers, complacency mutated into the belief that by “following the science” the virus would quickly be brought under control. As they put their countries under lockdown politicians – notably British Prime Minister Boris Johnson – talked of turning the tide against the virus within a few months.

But of all the insights about Covid-19 gleaned in 2020, the most critical has been that this virus metes out severe punishment to the complacent and careless.

This is what lies behind the stark reality that 2021 will begin with a pandemic that has already claimed over 1.7 million lives – and is still accelerating. How next year ends will depend on how well we avoid the complacency and carelessness of the past 12 months.

The need for speed

The emergence of a new, apparently far more infectious, variant of the original Covid-19 virus provides the first test of whether lessons have been learned. One of the most disastrous blunders was made in the very early days of the pandemic: a failure to recognise the need for speed.

Epidemics spread with exponential speed, with case-numbers increasing not like 1, 2, 3, 4 etc, but as 1, 2, 4, 8 – or even faster. Scientists capture this rate of spread by estimating how long it takes for the case numbers to double. Getting this figure wrong by even a few days leads can lead to disastrous delays in tackling the virus.

This does more than just give the virus more time to infect people, however. The mathematics of exponential growth shows the impact of the delay is permanently locked into the statistics. Experts have estimated that by getting the doubling time wrong by just two days, the resulting delay in the UK lockdown in March led to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Ever since, the UK government’s scientific advisors have been desperate to avoid making the same mistake. As soon as data on the spread of the new form of the Covid-19 virus became available, they began lobbying Mr Johnson to impose strict controls on most of South-East England over Christmas, regardless of the political or economic cost.

Testing times

While the swift reaction of the UK and other countries to the new variant is encouraging, the form of the response is less so. Within days of declaring the Covid-19 pandemic, the WHO said the key to extinguishing the virus was to "test, test, test".

Implementing that simple mantra remains anything but simple, however. Many countries still lack sufficient testing kits, even in the final days of 2020. But even when they are available, a trickier problem has emerged: how to interpret the outcome.

Experts stressed that all the tests have false-negative and false-positive rates – that is, a probability of wrongly giving the all-clear to those carrying the virus, or vice versa.

The so-called gold standard PCR test is regarded as having the lowest error rate, but it is expensive and slow. This led to greater use of faster, cheaper but less reliable tests.

  • Medical staff speak to drivers before they take a prick of blood from their finger that can rapidly be scanned for signs of the virus. All photos by Leslie Pableo for The National
    Medical staff speak to drivers before they take a prick of blood from their finger that can rapidly be scanned for signs of the virus. All photos by Leslie Pableo for The National
  • Police direct a long line of vehicles waiting for the rapid test at the Dubai-Abu Dhabi border
    Police direct a long line of vehicles waiting for the rapid test at the Dubai-Abu Dhabi border
  • Many commuters are expected to use the quick Dh50 to enter Abu Dhabi instead of undergoing a PCR nasal swab test, which costs about Dh150 in a private clinic
    Many commuters are expected to use the quick Dh50 to enter Abu Dhabi instead of undergoing a PCR nasal swab test, which costs about Dh150 in a private clinic
  • A medic takes a drop of blood from a commuter
    A medic takes a drop of blood from a commuter
  • A medic takes a drop of blood from a commuter
    A medic takes a drop of blood from a commuter
  • Medical staff use a laser scanning technique called DPI to look for signs that the body has generated antibodies to fight off a virus
    Medical staff use a laser scanning technique called DPI to look for signs that the body has generated antibodies to fight off a virus
  • Medical staff use a laser scanning technique called DPI to look for signs that the body has generated antibodies to fight off a virus
    Medical staff use a laser scanning technique called DPI to look for signs that the body has generated antibodies to fight off a virus
  • A medic takes a drop of blood from a commuter
    A medic takes a drop of blood from a commuter
  • Eighteen stations can handle 36 vehicles at any one time. The process takes several minutes to show a result
    Eighteen stations can handle 36 vehicles at any one time. The process takes several minutes to show a result
  • Although the DPI test does not specifically look for Covid-19, it quickly identifies whether someone may be ill
    Although the DPI test does not specifically look for Covid-19, it quickly identifies whether someone may be ill
  • Drivers line up to be tested on Al Faya Road just off the E11 highway between Dubai and Abu Dhabi
    Drivers line up to be tested on Al Faya Road just off the E11 highway between Dubai and Abu Dhabi
  • The company that runs the service for the government said it should save drivers time and money
    The company that runs the service for the government said it should save drivers time and money
  • Drivers line up to be tested on Al Faya Road just off the E11 highway between Dubai and Abu Dhabi
    Drivers line up to be tested on Al Faya Road just off the E11 highway between Dubai and Abu Dhabi

One way to cut the risk of mis-diagnosis is to restrict testing to people who already have symptoms consistent with Covid-19: a persistence cough, fever and loss of a sense of smell – as these alone are quite strong evidence of infection.

But many people carrying the virus do not have symptoms. Understandable concern about identifying these “asymptomatic” carriers led some countries to use the fast, cheap tests across the board. Even now, the impact of this on the reliability of key data about the prevalence of the virus remains unclear.

The issue of testing flared again with the emergence of the new, more infectious form of Covid-19 virus. Some governments want to test for it using the "gold standard" PCR test. Yet this too is now under suspicion, its high sensitivity raising the risk of giving positive results with people who have long since recovered from Covid-19 and no longer pose a threat.

Many experts have stressed that the way forward lies in frequent testing plus effective contact tracing. The ability of governments to set up and maintain such testing systems will play a key role in their success against the virus over the coming year.

Lockdowns: too high a price to pay?

In the absence of wonder-cure or vaccines, lockdowns were the obvious – if drastic - first line of defence against Covid-19. And in some countries, notably China and South Korea, they appear to have worked.

Yet many other countries have found that lockdowns can prove worse than useless. While case numbers plunged once imposed, the end of lockdowns led to second waves with death rates dwarfing those of the initial outbreaks.

Scientists are already warning of impending third waves of infection. The surges reflect another vicious aspect of the pandemic: how it forces governments to make invidious choices.

A deserted Regent Street on a gloomy Boxing Day as Londoners continue to live under Tier 4 lockdown restrictions. Niklas Hallen / AFP
A deserted Regent Street on a gloomy Boxing Day as Londoners continue to live under Tier 4 lockdown restrictions. Niklas Hallen / AFP

Even before the second waves emerged researchers cautioned that the rapid decline in cases following lockdowns could sucker governments into lifting them too early as concern switches to saving the economy. The still-rampant virus then comes roaring back as it regains access to new victims.

Trapped between the rock of Covid-19 and the hard place of economic collapse, governments have tried avoiding nationwide lockdowns with strategies such as regional “tiers” with varying levels of restrictions. But their complexity, varying socio-demographic impact and variable success will likely see them eclipsed by the Great White Hope for defeating the virus: vaccines.

Here come the vaccines

Around the world, thousands of scientists have dropped long-standing projects to join huge research programmes to fight the virus. It quickly emerged that even such basic issues as how respiratory viruses are spread and the effectiveness of masks had never been properly studied. Bitter disputes broke out between experts wielding small, badly-executed and misinterpreted studies.

While simple but potentially valuable measures such as antiseptic gargling were dismissed out of hand, huge sums were spent investigating "cutting-edge" therapies which then failed to live up to their billing.

The WHO Solidarity trial, involving Covid-19 patients in 30 countries, found that none of the sophisticated anti-viral drugs tried against the virus had any clear impact. Ironically, the only drug found to bring major benefit is dexamethasone, an old, cheap drug for calming the immune system.

While headlines trumpet the 90-plus per cent "effectiveness" of some vaccines, how effective they are in stopping vaccinated people acting as carriers remains unknown

Fortunately for the scientific community, these embarrassments have been eclipsed by their triumph in developing a whole suite of vaccines that have proved effective in clinical trials against Covid-19.

The first few – including two based on entirely novel ideas – have already been approved, and are now being rolled out. Unlike the restricted access offered by most countries, the UAE is making proven vaccines from Sinopharm and Pfizer-BioNTech available to most adults in the Emirates, free of charge.

But there are concerns that vaccination cannot live up to the hopes pinned on it. While headlines trumpet the 90-plus per cent “effectiveness” of some vaccines in preventing Covid-19, how effective they are in stopping vaccinated people acting as inadvertent carriers remains unknown.

And even the perfect vaccine won’t stop the pandemic unless enough people are vaccinated fast enough.

Over the coming months, billions of doses will have to be made and shipped around the world. But the biggest challenge may be overcoming the reluctance of people to be vaccinated. Surveys suggest that in some countries barely 50 per cent of people may accept vaccination – far too low to halt the pandemic.

We enter the new year with many critical questions still unanswered. But it is clear that 2021 will be the year when responsibility for ending the pandemic shifts decisively into the hands of each one of us.

Robert Matthews is visiting professor of science at Aston University, Birmingham, UK

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Results

4.30pm Jebel Jais – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (Turf) 1,000m; Winner: MM Al Balqaa, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Qaiss Aboud (trainer)

5pm: Jabel Faya – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: AF Rasam, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

5.30pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Mukhrej, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

6pm: The President’s Cup Prep – Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mujeeb, Richard Mullen, Salem Al Ketbi

6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club – Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud

7pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Pat Dobbs, Ibrahim Aseel

7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Nibraas, Richard Mullen, Nicholas Bachalard

SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Awar Qalb

Director: Jamal Salem

Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman

Two stars

Best Foreign Language Film nominees

Capernaum (Lebanon)

Cold War (Poland)

Never Look Away (Germany)

Roma (Mexico)

Shoplifters (Japan)

The biog

Mission to Seafarers is one of the largest port-based welfare operators in the world.

It provided services to around 200 ports across 50 countries.

They also provide port chaplains to help them deliver professional welfare services.

ILT20%20UAE%20stars
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELEADING%20RUN%20SCORERS%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1%20Nicholas%20Pooran%2C%20261%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E2%20Muhammad%20Waseem%20(UAE)%2C%20248%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Chris%20Lynn%2C%20244%3Cbr%3E4%20Johnson%20Charles%2C%20232%3Cbr%3E5%20Kusal%20Perera%2C%20230%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBEST%20BOWLING%20AVERAGE%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E(minimum%2010%20overs%20bowled)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E1%20Zuhaib%20Zubair%20(UAE)%2C%209%20wickets%20at%2012.44%3Cbr%3E2%20Mohammed%20Rohid%20(UAE)%2C%207%20at%2013.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E3%20Fazalhaq%20Farooqi%2C%2017%20at%2013.05%3Cbr%3E4%20Waqar%20Salamkheil%2C%2010%20at%2014.08%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5%20Aayan%20Khan%20(UAE)%2C%204%20at%2015.50%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E6%20Wanindu%20Hasaranga%2C%2012%20at%2016.25%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7%20Mohammed%20Jawadullah%20(UAE)%2C%2010%20at%2017.00%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

The specs

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 502hp at 7,600rpm

Torque: 637Nm at 5,150rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto

Price: from Dh317,671

On sale: now

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

PAKISTAN SQUAD

Pakistan - Sarfraz Ahmed (captain), Azhar Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Hafeez, Haris Sohail, Faheem Ashraf, Shadab Khan, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Amir, Hasan Ali, Aamer Yamin, Rumman Raees.

Results
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EElite%20men%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Amare%20Hailemichael%20Samson%20(ERI)%202%3A07%3A10%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Leornard%20Barsoton%20(KEN)%202%3A09%3A37%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Ilham%20Ozbilan%20(TUR)%202%3A10%3A16%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Gideon%20Chepkonga%20(KEN)%202%3A11%3A17%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Isaac%20Timoi%20(KEN)%202%3A11%3A34%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EElite%20women%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Brigid%20Kosgei%20(KEN)%202%3A19%3A15%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Hawi%20Feysa%20Gejia%20(ETH)%202%3A24%3A03%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Sintayehu%20Dessi%20(ETH)%202%3A25%3A36%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Aurelia%20Kiptui%20(KEN)%202%3A28%3A59%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Emily%20Kipchumba%20(KEN)%202%3A29%3A52%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Breast cancer in men: the facts

1) Breast cancer is men is rare but can develop rapidly. It usually occurs in those over the ages of 60, but can occasionally affect younger men.

2) Symptoms can include a lump, discharge, swollen glands or a rash. 

3) People with a history of cancer in the family can be more susceptible. 

4) Treatments include surgery and chemotherapy but early diagnosis is the key. 

5) Anyone concerned is urged to contact their doctor

 

How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
  1. Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
  2. Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
  3. Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
  4. Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
  5. Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
  6. The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
  7. Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269

*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year

In Full Flight: A Story of Africa and Atonement
John Heminway, Knopff

Tuesday's fixtures
Group A
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Iran v Uzbekistan, 8pm
N Korea v UAE, 10.15pm
Gully Boy

Director: Zoya Akhtar
Producer: Excel Entertainment & Tiger Baby
Cast: Ranveer Singh, Alia Bhatt, Kalki Koechlin, Siddhant Chaturvedi​​​​​​​
Rating: 4/5 stars

Desert Warrior

Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley

Director: Rupert Wyatt

Rating: 3/5