The rise of a new and more easily spread strain of Covid-19 in the UK could lead to tight lockdown measures being imposed for longer and extended across the country, a leading expert said.
The emergence of the new variant in London and south-east England is being linked to a surge in case numbers.
The British government said the mutation is up to 70 per cent more transmissible and could increase the reproduction number (R) – the number of people one infected person will typically pass the virus on to – by 0.4.
Dr Andrew Freedman, an infectious diseases specialist at Cardiff University in the UK, said the new strain may mean that strict measures to prevent viral spread have to be in place “a lot longer” and are likely to be imposed more widely across the UK as the new variant takes hold.
The mutation was likely to spread “quite widely” to new areas and he said it was already thought to be behind increases in cases in South Wales, for example.
Tight restrictions remain key to combating virus
“There’s a good chance the numbers will be brought down in the next few weeks, but quite how long it goes on and whether the R rate will be brought down to below one, that may take a while,” he said.
“Theoretically, by doing these measures, if you stop people meeting, however infectious the virus is, you will bring down the numbers.”
He said tier four and other tougher restrictions would hopefully not be needed until vaccine administration in the UK was widespread.
Officials said it was unlikely the new variant would be resistant to the vaccines that have recently been approved for use.
London recorded a dramatic increase in cases, figures from the Mayor of London's office show, with the new strain thought to be driving the increase.
New strain sparks surge in infections
In London, there were 41,936 positive cases between December 9 and 15, the most recent full week for which figures were announced, which translates to 468 positive cases per 100,000 people.
In the week immediately preceding this, there were 20,212 positive cases in the capital, or 226 per 100,000, which is less than half the figure for a week later.
With London, some other parts of south-east and east England hit by the new form of coronavirus face strict tier four restrictions, and across these regions increases of a similar magnitude were recorded.
Across the UK, case numbers are increasing rapidly, official figures show. Between December 17 and 20, an average of 29,025 new cases were recorded a day, compared with an average of 19,665 a day between December 13 and 16.
The variant has been found in England, Scotland and Wales but is rarer outside London and south-east England.
Its higher transmissibility may not be the only factor behind case number increases, but it is thought to be having a significant effect in the tier four areas, not least because in these places, the new strain is now dominant.
According to UK government figures, in the week beginning November 18 it accounted for 28 per cent of new cases in London, but three weeks later (the week commencing December 9), the figure was 62 per cent.
It has yet to be confirmed that the new variant is more infectious, although laboratory tests are under way to investigate this. Case numbers can rise simply because restrictions are not strict enough, and the prevalence of variants is subject to fluctuation.
Virus mutation found across the globe
The new strain, thought to have first appeared in September, has also been found in the Netherlands, Denmark and Australia.
Australia’s chief medical officer, Prof Paul Kelly, said “there is no definite evidence” it represented a significant change in terms of transmissibility.
Dr Freedman said, however, that there was “good circumstantial evidence” that the rise in the number of cases in parts of the UK and the emergence of the mutation were linked.
There are 23 genetic changes associated with the new strain, the most important of which affect the virus’s spike protein, the structure that it uses to enter human cells, where it reproduces.
Because of the spike protein change, it is thought to be able to reproduce faster, meaning infected individuals have more virus particles in their system – a higher viral load – and so may be more likely to pass on the pathogen.
“It does seem to latch on more efficiently and that does seem to correlate with a higher viral load,” Dr Freedman said.
The new variant may be present in other countries other than those where it has already been identified: the UK has carried out more coronavirus sequencing than any other country, so is better able to detect new forms of the virus.
“In Europe, the UK and Denmark are the most prolific sequencers. So the variant could be elsewhere and not detected yet,” Dr Emma Hodcroft, a researcher at the University of Basel, Switzerland, wrote on Twitter.
While there have been many variants of the coronavirus, in South Africa one with the same key mutation became the dominant form, accounting for up to 90 per cent of cases.
The South African and UK variants are thought to have arisen independently.
Other key dates
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Finals draw: December 2
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Finals (including semi-finals and third-placed game): June 5–9, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-off draw: November 22, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-offs: March 26–31, 2020
IF YOU GO
The flights: FlyDubai offers direct flights to Catania Airport from Dubai International Terminal 2 daily with return fares starting from Dh1,895.
The details: Access to the 2,900-metre elevation point at Mount Etna by cable car and 4x4 transport vehicle cost around €57.50 (Dh248) per adult. Entry into Teatro Greco costs €10 (Dh43). For more go to www.visitsicily.info
Where to stay: Hilton Giardini Naxos offers beachfront access and accessible to Taormina and Mount Etna. Rooms start from around €130 (Dh561) per night, including taxes.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Juliot Vinolia’s checklist for adopting alternate-day fasting
- Don’t do it more than once in three days
- Don’t go under 700 calories on fasting days
- Ensure there is sufficient water intake, as the body can go in dehydration mode
- Ensure there is enough roughage (fibre) in the food on fasting days as well
- Do not binge on processed or fatty foods on non-fasting days
- Complement fasting with plant-based foods, fruits, vegetables, seafood. Cut out processed meats and processed carbohydrates
- Manage your sleep
- People with existing gastric or mental health issues should avoid fasting
- Do not fast for prolonged periods without supervision by a qualified expert
The%20specs
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MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium, Malayisa
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia on October 10
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.4-litre%204-cylinder%20turbo%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20366hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E550Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESix-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh360%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2019 Audi A8
Price From Dh390,000
Engine 3.0L V6 turbo
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 345hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy, combined 7.5L / 100km
SCHEDULE
Thursday, December 6
08.00-15.00 Technical scrutineering
15.00-17.00 Extra free practice
Friday, December 7
09.10-09.30 F4 free practice
09.40-10.00 F4 time trials
10.15-11.15 F1 free practice
14.00 F4 race 1
15.30 BRM F1 qualifying
Saturday, December 8
09.10-09.30 F4 free practice
09.40-10.00 F4 time trials
10.15-11.15 F1 free practice
14.00 F4 race 2
15.30 Grand Prix of Abu Dhabi
The specs
The specs: 2019 Audi Q8
Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 340hp @ 3,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 2,250rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Teaching in coronavirus times