Cristiano Ronaldo shook his head in disbelief when a stoppage-time howler deprived his Al Nassr side their Saudi Pro League coronation on Tuesday night.
They would have won the domestic title – and Ronaldo his first major trophy since being in the country – had they held on for a win against their Riyadh rivals Al Hilal.
Then Bento, their goalkeeper, let a long throw in slip through his grasp and into his goal, and they had to settle for a draw instead.
No matter; they still hold the advantage in the title race, and could even be crowned champions while their minds are on other business on Saturday night.
AFC Champions League Two final
Nassr are strong favourites when they host Japan’s Gamba Osaka in the AFC Champions League Two final.
It is Asia’s second-tier club competition – Jeddah-based Al Ahli Saudi won the Elite version last month – so the equivalent of the Uefa Europa League in Europe.
Ronaldo did not even bother playing in it until it started to reach its business stage, as Nassr reached the final with two matches in Dubai last month.
By the rules of the competition, the final is played alternately in either the east or west region of the Asian confederation.
Sharjah won the final against Lion City Sailors in Singapore last year, meaning this season’s finale is in West Asia. Which gives Nassr home advantage at Al Awwal Park against their visitors from Japan.
Hilal distraction
The AFC final kicks off at 9.45pm. As such, Nassr could feasibly win the SPL while already playing against Gamba.
Hilal, the only side who can overhaul Nassr at the top of the table, face Neom in their penultimate fixture on Saturday.
That game kicks off at 8.05pm, a mere 10 kms away in Riyadh. As such, it will finish shortly after kick off in the Nassr game.
If Hilal fail to win, the SPL title will be Nassr’s, which could prompt some bizarre scenes of celebration in the crowd at Al Awwal Park if it does come to pass.
Rankings tie-breaker
The SPL – as in the UAE, where Al Ain were crowned champions last week even though their points total could still have been matched by Shabab Al Ahli – does not use goal difference to determine rankings.
Article 9 of the competition regulations states that the first tie-breaker between sides who finish on the same points is head-to-head record.
Or, specifically, “the highest number of points obtained in the match(es) played between the tied teams”.
The next is goal difference in matches between them – so aggregate score – and then goals scored in those matches. Only then is goal difference across the league season considered.
Hilal beat Nassr 3-1 in the first Riyadh derby of the season in January, before Tuesday’s draw. As such, the title would be theirs if the two sides finish level on points.
Permutations
Hilal are five points behind with two matches remaining, against Neom on Saturday, then Al Fahya on the final evening of the campaign next Thursday.
If they win both those matches, and Nassr fail to beat Damac in their only remaining game – which kicks off at the same time as Hilal face Fahya – Hilal will win the league.
If Hilal drop points in either of their matches, they cannot overhaul Nassr’s points total, so Nassr will take the title for the first time since 2019, whatever happens against Damac.
How likely is a Nassr double?
It would take a capitulation of epic proportions for Ronaldo to finish the season empty-handed again.
Despite the blow of the late own goal against Hilal, they are still well placed for the double.
Gamba are third in their conference of the J-League. They have a lengthy journey to get to Saudi Arabia for Saturday’s final.
The weather will be about 10º Celsius hotter than Osaka. And, while the Japanese have three overseas players of humble repute in their squad, Nassr’s side is embossed with the likes of Ronaldo, Joao Felix, Sadio Mane and Kingsley Coman.
What about Hilal?
In the league, Nassr will be even greater overwhelming favourites to beat relegation-threatened Damac.
And that is if the league even makes it that far. Hilal looked like they had run their race in the Riyadh derby, before their lucky late leveller, and Neom are no easy beats.
The incoming mid-table finish for Neom is a decent return for a side enjoying their first season in the top-flight of Saudi Arabian football.
Neom’s competence is no surprise given their squad includes players with experience of top-level European football like Abdoulaye Dacoure, Said Benrahma and Alexandre Lacazette.
