Once seen as a pathway to end a decade of conflict in Syria, the "Astana process" has since become little more than a wretched notion. The peace process that began in 2017 and involved Russia, Turkey and Iran subsequently collapsed for a number of reasons, including Russian-Turkish clashes over the Syrian city of Idlib and a showdown between Moscow and Ankara in nearby Libya.
Meanwhile Iran is preoccupied, as its media claims, with championing the Palestinian cause as a way to retaliate against US sanctions in the wake of the Israel's Washington-approved plan to annex parts of the West Bank.
In all this, Arab nations have once again become theatres of the proxy wars of others. Unfortunately, things are about to get worse.
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Gitit in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Yizhar in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Givat Zeev in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Maale Adumim in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Modiin Ellit in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Ariel in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Ofra in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Leshem-Alei Zahavm in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Har Homa in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Kiryat Arba in the West Bank. EPA
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Beitar Illit.
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Eli in the West Bank.
A handout photo made available by the Peace Now organization showing an aerial view of the Israeli settlement of Bruchin in the West Bank. EPA
Beginning with Iran, I have been reliably informed that following a meeting last Tuesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will mobilise pro-regime forces such as Hezbollah and Hamas in June and July in conjunction with the expected Israeli announcement of annexing Palestinian territories. "There will be one hundred per cent military mobilisation, and these preparations are not for military exercises,” I have been told. At the meeting, the possibility of clashes were discussed.
Tehran assesses that a popular mobilisation could help deflect the restive public's attention away from domestic troubles, resulting from the crippling US-led economic sanctions.
Meanwhile, the war in Libya has turned into a horror show involving multinational mercenaries and international terrorists waging battles on behalf of various groups jostling for power. There are many moving parts in the conflict, significant among them the Muslim Brotherhood project backed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who insists on imposing its ideology on the rest of the Arab world as well.
Throw into the mix oil politics, human trafficking and a migrant crisis, and the conflict there has become decidedly more complex.
Forces loyal to the Government of National Accord parade a Pantsir air defence system truck in the Libyan capital of Tripoli. AFP
I have been informed that Moscow is determined to teach Ankara a lesson in North Africa. "The idea is if we achieve what we want against Turkey in Libya, this will give us the ability to act decisively against Turkey in Syria," I was told. Relations between the two countries have been greatly strained by the battle for Idlib, a city in Syria's north-west that continues to be held by rebels backed by Turkey in their fight against the Assad regime, supported by Russia.
This week, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned against the "Syrianisation" of Libya, with foreign parties supporting local proxies there, saying that the Turkish-backed Government of National Accord was bringing many thousands of Syrian fighters into Libya.
Vladimir Putin's Russia and Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey are on opposite sides in both Syria and Libya. AP Photo
Indeed, it is Turkey’s involvement in Libya – following an agreement with the Fayez Al Sarraj-led GNA – that has brought the curse of Syrianisation upon Libya. Ankara has publicly threatened retired Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army, which is fighting to wrest control of Tripoli from GNA. Russia has for some time lent Field Marshal Haftar its backing, but what is new is the qualitative shift in its logistical and military support.
I have been informed of Moscow's determination to help Field Marshal Haftar win Tripoli and take control of the country "by September 30" that "requires Moscow to give Haftar everything he needs to achieve victory, which is only possible by allowing Haftar's forces inflict maximal losses on the Turkish military in Libya" – in other words, with the help of Russian fighter jets and mercenaries.
Turkey has publicly threatened Khalifa Haftar, whose forces are fighting to wrest control of Tripoli from the Government of National Accord. Reuters
While the short-term objectives are to thwart Turkish plans in Libya and transform the LNA into a more effective force, the long-term objective could be to deliver Saif Gaddafi, the son of former ruler Muammar, to the presidency.
This has raised alarms in Washington, which this week publicly criticised Moscow. It sent out implicit messages suggesting a willingness to tolerate Ankara's adventure in Libya and raised concern about Russia's strategic ambitions in the country. The US military also accused Russia of sending fighter jets to provide air cover to mercenaries operating in Libya.
Meanwhile David Schenker, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, protested against the characterisation of Turkey’s role in Libya as "wreaking havoc". Speaking at the fourth e-policy circle of the Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi, he said: “Why do you think it’s Turkey that’s creating havoc by backing the internationally recognised government while Russia is sending in mercenaries and advanced fighter aircraft?”
With reference to Turkey’s mercenaries, Mr Schenker said “everybody has mercenaries in Libya”.
Meanwhile Philipp Ackermann, Director-General for the Near and Middle East and the Maghreb in the German Federal Foreign Office, which led the Berlin Conference for reconciliation in Libya, said in the same panel that what is under way in Libya is now a proxy war involving different parties with different objectives. Adding that Europe is concerned by the conflict – given its proximity to Libya – Mr Ackermann said the Berlin Conference needed to be persisted with for any hope of securing peace in the region.
Unfortunately though, the reality in Libya does not raise hopes of national reconciliation, or a Russian-Turkish truce, or a check on the Muslim Brotherhood's ambitions there any time soon. Worse, it is military confrontation that is likely to dominate the headlines.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah 5.10pm: Continous 5.45pm: Raging Torrent 6.20pm: West Acre 7pm: Flood Zone 7.40pm: Straight No Chaser 8.15pm: Romantic Warrior 8.50pm: Calandogan 9.30pm: Forever Young
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
