Anthony Fauci, America's top infectious disease expert, has been something of a cult hero during the coronavirus pandemic. So far he has even been viewed as unsackable by President Donald Trump.
But even heroes have off days. Dr Fauci last week carped about the British announcement that it has approved the vaccine produced by Pfizer and its partner BioNTech, and that the first doses would be handed out as early as next week.
His suggestion that the UK had cut corners to beat the world to roll out the vaccine was immediately damaging. A tsunami of disinformation has been unleashed surrounding the Covid-19 vaccines. Anything that gives grist to the mill of conspiracists is bound to be damaging.
Dr Fauci is a rare character: a specialist expert who is known around the world. Quoting him knocking the vaccine will fuel the social media disinformation onslaught. The good doctor soon backtracked, explaining that he had reacted badly to the triumphalist tone of a British interviewer. He then vouched for the British regulator.
It is important to note that different national bodies deal with the approval process in their own way and the US is looking at a mid-December approval of the Pfizer application. Meanwhile, the European Medicines Agency is due to make its decision on December 29.
All this provides an insight with regard to the fraught nature of the race to deploy vaccines. Once the medicine is ready, countries can move to break the cycle of lockdowns and restrictions that constrain daily social and economic life. Cyprus announced it would be first country to end the quarantine for those who have been vaccinated. Big business will flow from the provision of secure vaccine passports in 2021.
For all that, the concept of the vaccine race is deeply flawed. We won't know until January or February, at the earliest, how well the campaign is working. Even if "race" is a valid term, there remains a daunting series of challenges ahead – for those countries with the vaccine and those further down the line.
The world passed the grim milestone of 1.5 million global coronavirus deaths on Thursday, putting into stark relief the joy of those nations that plan to deliver the vaccines. Since November 23, more than 10,000 worldwide have died every day – the longest sustained period of fatalities at that level.
Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organisation's emergencies programme, has attempted to temper expectations. Reuters
Mike Ryan, the World Health Organisation official who has steadily dispensed medical wisdom throughout 2020, declared bluntly on Friday that a vaccine will not mean zero Covid-19 in circulation. "By themselves, they will not do the job," he said. "And therefore we have to add vaccines into an existing public health strategy."
London’s breakthrough has unleashed great hopes but politicians have exhibited an unsavoury one-upmanship. Germany has built vast deep-freeze warehouses that will store batches of the vaccine before they are transported to Britain. For its part, the European Medicines Agency seems extraordinarily bureaucratic in waiting for a regular scheduled meeting at the end of the month before it authorises a vaccine.
But while Britain is getting the first supplies, it remains to be seen if it can really get the vaccine to the public. A network of more than 50,000 people with basic medical skills will be needed to administer the doses. There is scant evidence that this has been built.
A training session in the Covid-19 Vaccination Clinic at the University Hospital in Coventry, central England last week. A network of more than 50,000 people with basic medical skills will be needed to administer the doses. AFP
It was noticeable that the Germans are quietly building this distribution system ahead of the vaccine approval decision.
A major analysis published last week from the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, assessed the impact of global vaccine distribution for 10 major economies, including the UAE. It said that funding for the Gavi Alliance's global distribution mechanism, known as the Covax-Advance Market Commitment, was vital. It aims to get vaccines delivered to 92 low-income countries through its own facility.
The Eurasia report said the economic boost for the UAE alone in 2021-22 would amount to $18.1 billion and add up to a cumulatively $69.7bn boost over five years. The 10 rich countries, as a whole, would gain almost half a billion dollars from getting the economy moving again.
French President Emmanuel Macron gave a very strong endorsement of a global push to roll out the vaccine at a UN symposium last week. Reuters
The vaccine is no doubt a great achievement of 2020, but the history of the recovery is being written even as the suffering escalates
President Emmanuel Macron of France gave a very strong endorsement of a global push to roll out the vaccine at a UN symposium last week. It is worth quoting his words at length.
“These doses, whether they come from Europe, China, Russia or the United States, whether they are the fruit of donations from states or pharmaceutical companies, would thus be allocated effectively and fairly, on the basis of WHO recommendations,” Mr Macron said.
Getting to this point within a calendar year of the new virus being detected is a landmark achievement in the history of humanity. In countries where faith in the medical profession is high, vaccine rates can still be expected to be high.
However, the pitfalls ahead are myriad. The vaccine is no doubt a great achievement of 2020, but the history of the recovery is being written even as the suffering escalates. Delivering it is not just a managerial challenge. It is a task that requires strategic wisdom and careful messaging to get everybody onboard.
Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based:Dubai
Founders:Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Luang Prabang via Bangkok, with a return flight from Chiang Rai via Bangkok for about Dh3,000, including taxes. Emirates and Thai Airways cover the same route, also via Bangkok in both directions, from about Dh2,700. The cruise
The Gypsy by Mekong Kingdoms has two cruising options: a three-night, four-day trip upstream cruise or a two-night, three-day downstream journey, from US$5,940 (Dh21,814), including meals, selected drinks, excursions and transfers. The hotels
Accommodation is available in Luang Prabang at the Avani, from $290 (Dh1,065) per night, and at Anantara Golden Triangle Elephant Camp and Resort from $1,080 (Dh3,967) per night, including meals, an activity and transfers.
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
'Spies in Disguise'
Director: Nick Bruno and Troy Quane
Stars: Will Smith, Tom Holland, Karen Gillan and Roshida Jones
Rating: 4 out of 5 stars
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.
The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors Power: 659hp Torque: 1075Nm On sale: Available for pre-order now Price: On request
All kick-off times 10.45pm UAE ( 4 GMT) unless stated
Tuesday
Sevilla v Maribor
Spartak Moscow v Liverpool
Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk
Napoli v Feyenoord
Besiktas v RB Leipzig
Monaco v Porto
Apoel Nicosia v Tottenham Hotspur
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Wednesday
Basel v Benfica
CSKA Moscow Manchester United
Paris Saint-Germain v Bayern Munich
Anderlecht v Celtic
Qarabag v Roma (8pm)
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea
Juventus v Olympiakos
Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona
