Anthony Fauci, America's top infectious disease expert, has been something of a cult hero during the coronavirus pandemic. So far he has even been viewed as unsackable by President Donald Trump.
But even heroes have off days. Dr Fauci last week carped about the British announcement that it has approved the vaccine produced by Pfizer and its partner BioNTech, and that the first doses would be handed out as early as next week.
His suggestion that the UK had cut corners to beat the world to roll out the vaccine was immediately damaging. A tsunami of disinformation has been unleashed surrounding the Covid-19 vaccines. Anything that gives grist to the mill of conspiracists is bound to be damaging.
Dr Fauci is a rare character: a specialist expert who is known around the world. Quoting him knocking the vaccine will fuel the social media disinformation onslaught. The good doctor soon backtracked, explaining that he had reacted badly to the triumphalist tone of a British interviewer. He then vouched for the British regulator.
It is important to note that different national bodies deal with the approval process in their own way and the US is looking at a mid-December approval of the Pfizer application. Meanwhile, the European Medicines Agency is due to make its decision on December 29.
All this provides an insight with regard to the fraught nature of the race to deploy vaccines. Once the medicine is ready, countries can move to break the cycle of lockdowns and restrictions that constrain daily social and economic life. Cyprus announced it would be first country to end the quarantine for those who have been vaccinated. Big business will flow from the provision of secure vaccine passports in 2021.
For all that, the concept of the vaccine race is deeply flawed. We won't know until January or February, at the earliest, how well the campaign is working. Even if "race" is a valid term, there remains a daunting series of challenges ahead – for those countries with the vaccine and those further down the line.
The world passed the grim milestone of 1.5 million global coronavirus deaths on Thursday, putting into stark relief the joy of those nations that plan to deliver the vaccines. Since November 23, more than 10,000 worldwide have died every day – the longest sustained period of fatalities at that level.
Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organisation's emergencies programme, has attempted to temper expectations. Reuters
Mike Ryan, the World Health Organisation official who has steadily dispensed medical wisdom throughout 2020, declared bluntly on Friday that a vaccine will not mean zero Covid-19 in circulation. "By themselves, they will not do the job," he said. "And therefore we have to add vaccines into an existing public health strategy."
London’s breakthrough has unleashed great hopes but politicians have exhibited an unsavoury one-upmanship. Germany has built vast deep-freeze warehouses that will store batches of the vaccine before they are transported to Britain. For its part, the European Medicines Agency seems extraordinarily bureaucratic in waiting for a regular scheduled meeting at the end of the month before it authorises a vaccine.
But while Britain is getting the first supplies, it remains to be seen if it can really get the vaccine to the public. A network of more than 50,000 people with basic medical skills will be needed to administer the doses. There is scant evidence that this has been built.
A training session in the Covid-19 Vaccination Clinic at the University Hospital in Coventry, central England last week. A network of more than 50,000 people with basic medical skills will be needed to administer the doses. AFP
It was noticeable that the Germans are quietly building this distribution system ahead of the vaccine approval decision.
A major analysis published last week from the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, assessed the impact of global vaccine distribution for 10 major economies, including the UAE. It said that funding for the Gavi Alliance's global distribution mechanism, known as the Covax-Advance Market Commitment, was vital. It aims to get vaccines delivered to 92 low-income countries through its own facility.
The Eurasia report said the economic boost for the UAE alone in 2021-22 would amount to $18.1 billion and add up to a cumulatively $69.7bn boost over five years. The 10 rich countries, as a whole, would gain almost half a billion dollars from getting the economy moving again.
French President Emmanuel Macron gave a very strong endorsement of a global push to roll out the vaccine at a UN symposium last week. Reuters
The vaccine is no doubt a great achievement of 2020, but the history of the recovery is being written even as the suffering escalates
President Emmanuel Macron of France gave a very strong endorsement of a global push to roll out the vaccine at a UN symposium last week. It is worth quoting his words at length.
“These doses, whether they come from Europe, China, Russia or the United States, whether they are the fruit of donations from states or pharmaceutical companies, would thus be allocated effectively and fairly, on the basis of WHO recommendations,” Mr Macron said.
Getting to this point within a calendar year of the new virus being detected is a landmark achievement in the history of humanity. In countries where faith in the medical profession is high, vaccine rates can still be expected to be high.
However, the pitfalls ahead are myriad. The vaccine is no doubt a great achievement of 2020, but the history of the recovery is being written even as the suffering escalates. Delivering it is not just a managerial challenge. It is a task that requires strategic wisdom and careful messaging to get everybody onboard.
Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
