What if 'President Joe Biden' withdraws from the Middle East?
As foreign policy circles discuss the possibility of a Donald Trump defeat, there is speculation over whether the former vice-president will shift his focus to Asia and China
Every four years, world leaders and governments position themselves ahead of the US presidential election, either to directly influence the voting or to curry favour with the Republicans and Democrats by jockeying with one or both political parties and their presidential candidates.
It seems no different this year.
Three factors seem to undermine President Donald Trump's chances of getting re-elected in November: failure to prepare for the coronavirus outbreak in the US; economic devastation caused by Covid-19; and the killing of an African-American, George Floyd, while in police custody, thereby exposing once again racial divides in the country. Instead of consoling the victim's family and trying to bring Americans together, Mr Trump confronted the protesters who took to the streets in their thousands to demand justice following the incident.
The Federal Hall in Manhattan, New York is seen marked with graffiti after protests against the death in Minneapolis police custody of George Floyd. Reuters
A NYPD policeman is seen during a protest in Brooklyn, New York City. Reuters
Protesters demonstrate during a peaceful march in downtown Houston, Texas. AFP
Protestors including British actor John Boyega, centre, raise their fists in Parliament square during an anti-racism demonstration in London. AFP
British actor John Boyega speaks to protestors in Parliament square during an anti-racism demonstration in London. AFP
Protesters kneel to demonstrate against the death of George Floyd near the US Capitol, in Washington, DC. AFP
Protestors hold placards and shout slogans as they march during an anti-racism demonstration in central London. AFP
People lay down in protest for the death of George Floyd near the US Capitol, in Washington, DC. AFP
Police officers react as they attempt to detain a protestor near the entrance to Downing Street, during an anti-racism demonstration in London. AFP
Protesters during a protest on the Malieveld in The Hague, The Netherlands. Organizer Black Lives Matter Netherlands organized the meeting in protest of violence against black people in the US and the death of 46-year-old George Floyd while in police custody. EPA
Protestors scuffle with Police officers near the entrance to Downing Street, during an anti-racism demonstration in London. AFP
Protestors hold placards during a demonstration in London. AFP
U.S. Army soldiers pass protesters as they arrive to maintain a perimeter during a rally against the death in Minneapolis police custody of George Floyd, near the White House, in Washington, U.S. REUTERS
Washington, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser bows her head in prayer during a vigil as protests continue on the streets near the White House over the death in police custody of George Floyd, in Washington, U.S. REUTERS
A demonstrator displays a message of protest on shoes as protesters rally against the death in Minneapolis police custody of George Floyd, near the White House in Washington, U.S. REUTERS
A police officer takes a knee in front of protesters near Downing Street during a "Black Lives Matter" protest following the death of George Floyd who died in police custody in Minneapolis, London, Britain. REUTERS
This combination of photos provided by the Hennepin County Sheriff's Office in Minnesota shows J. Alexander Kueng, from left, Thomas Lane and Tou Thao. They have been charged with aiding and abetting Derek Chauvin, who is charged with second-degree murder of George Floyd, a black man who died after being restrained by the Minneapolis police officers on May 25. AP
Hundreds of demonstrators lie face down depicting George Floyd during his detention by police during a protest against police brutality, on Boston Common. AP Photo
Atlanta Police Officer J. Coleman, left, and protester Elijah Raffington, of Sandy Springs, fist bump while an Atlanta Police bicycle unit blocking Marietta Street at Centennial Olympic Park Drive kneels down with protesters in a symbolic gesture of solidarity outside the CNN Center at Olympic Park, in Atlanta, during a protest sparked by the May 25 death of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody. AP
People continue to gather near the intersection of 38th and Chicago in front of the Cup Foods at the spot where George Floyd was arrested and who later died in police custody, in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. EPA
Mr Trump's tendency to place his traditionally white voter base above national interests has, therefore, made his path to re-election much trickier. And with his opponent Joe Biden in a seemingly better position of getting elected than he was a few months ago, the US foreign policy community is engaging in fresh policy discussions.
Foremost on the minds of many has been the issue of a rising China, as well as greater US engagement in south-east Asia. It is clear that neither Republicans nor Democrats want a military confrontation with Beijing, although the future of Taiwan vis-a-vis China remains, for some, the likely trigger point for an unlikely confrontation. However, any talk of war on social media diverges from the thinking of experts on US-China relations.
They include Robert Blackwill, a senior fellow at the think tank Council on Foreign Relations, who was once deputy national security adviser during the presidency of George W Bush, and Kishore Mahbubani, the former Singaporean envoy to the United Nations. During the fifth e-policy circle hosted by the Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi, Mr Blackwill and Mr Mahbubani agreed that a war between the world's two largest powers is unlikely.
But both experts believe that, in order for the US to engage more in Asia, it needs to disentangle itself from the Middle East.
In a recently published article titled The End of World Order and American Foreign Policy, Mr Blackwill wrote: "The Covid-19 crisis ought to mark the end of the post-9/11 era. The United States has overly invested in the greater Middle East, and Washington should stop trying to fix the most dysfunctional and self-destructive region on earth." He elaborated on this point during the e-policy discussion, making two policy prescriptions for the US in this region.
“First, the United States should stop starting wars in the Middle East for the foreseeable future. Second, the United States should not devote diplomatic capital to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The two-state solution is over. The reason, of course, is mostly Israel. It will bear the consequences of this, but it's a hopeless endeavour now for the United States to use diplomacy to try to solve that problem."
Mourners carry the body of Mohammed Hamayel, a 15-year-old Palestinian killed by Israeli forces, during his funeral in the West Bank village of Beita on March 11, 2020. EPA
Relatives mourn for Mohammed Hamayel, who was shot during protests on March 11, 2020 against feared Israeli land confiscation south of Nablus city in the occupied West Bank . EPA
Mohammed Hamayel's sister cries at his funeral. EPA
Mohammed Hamayel's grandmother grieves at his funeral in the village of Beita near Nablus city. EPA
Mohammed Hamayel died after being shot in the face with live ammunition by Israeli soldiers, the Palestinian health ministry said. EPA
Women watch the funeral of Mohammed Hamayel from a home in the West Bank village of Beita. AFP
Palestinian women mourn during the funeral of Mohammed Hamayel. AFP
Relatives mourn during Mohammed Hamayel's funeral. Reuters
Mr Blackwill also said that the Trump administration, particularly the President's son-in-law and White House adviser Jared Kushner, is squarely behind the Israeli bid to annex West Bank and the Jordan Valley. "If you're asking, is there any chance the United States would sanction Israel for its annexation policies, the answer is no. And it is even more stark than that. Which government proposed that Israel annex 30 per cent more of the West Bank? The answer is, the United States government – in the Kushner peace plan."
Mr Blackwill's central point, one that Mr Mahbubani agrees with, is that Asia deserves more investment from US decision-makers than the Middle East does. Both men urged the US to dedicate less diplomatic capital and resources in this region and, instead, pivot to Asia. Mr Mahbubani went further, suggesting that the Arab world also needs to engage more with Asia.
The former diplomat said that, despite being a possible centre of a future conflict, south-east Asia has a population of 615 million people and enjoys a great amount of diversity. "Asean has turned out to be the second most successful regional organisation in the world [because] we have succeeded in preventing wars in our region [and] created a culture of pragmatism," he said, while comparing it to decades of conflict in the Middle East. In Mr Mahbubani's view, an American exit from this region would only help the region's players to engage in soul-searching and come together.
However, two countries that would like to see a US withdrawal from the region are Iran and Turkey.
The Iranian regime, no doubt, wants to see the back of Mr Trump come presidential inauguration day in January, given his decision to place gruelling economic sanctions on Tehran after withdrawing the US from the 2015 nuclear deal. Nonetheless, it has two plans for both eventualities – a victory for Mr Trump and a defeat for him.
Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, with Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan are pursuing deeply ideological projects in the Middle East. AP Photo
There is an assumption that a "President Biden", who as vice-president was partially responsible for the nuclear deal, would be a gift for Iran’s rulers – not just for the so-called moderates within the establishment but also the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with the latter hoping to be freed of sanctions so that they can proceed with their expansionist plans across the Arab world.
The election of Mr Biden could also give President Recep Tayyip Erdogan an impetus to push his Muslim Brotherhood project in Arab countries, a vision that was met with little opposition during the presidency of Barack Obama.
The losers would, therefore, be the many millions of Arabs who are simply tired of sectarian strife in the region, which would only be exacerbated if the US chooses to turn a blind eye to the competing visions and actions of both the Brotherhood and the regime in Tehran.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
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Pupils in Abu Dhabi are learning the importance of being active, eating well and leading a healthy lifestyle now and throughout adulthood, thanks to a newly launched programme 'Healthy Lifestyle'.
As part of the Healthy Lifestyle programme, specially trained coaches from City Football Schools, along with Healthpoint physicians have visited schools throughout Abu Dhabi to give fun and interactive lessons on working out regularly, making the right food choices, getting enough sleep and staying hydrated, just like their favourite footballers.
Organised by Manchester City FC and Healthpoint, Manchester City FC’s regional healthcare partner and part of Mubadala’s healthcare network, the ‘Healthy Lifestyle’ programme will visit 15 schools, meeting around 1,000 youngsters over the next five months.
Designed to give pupils all the information they need to improve their diet and fitness habits at home, at school and as they grow up, coaches from City Football Schools will work alongside teachers to lead the youngsters through a series of fun, creative and educational classes as well as activities, including playing football and other games.
Dr Mai Ahmed Al Jaber, head of public health at Healthpoint, said: “The programme has different aspects - diet, exercise, sleep and mental well-being. By having a focus on each of those and delivering information in a way that children can absorb easily it can help to address childhood obesity."
Favourite book: The Ocean at The End of The Lane by Neil Gaiman
Role model: Parents, followed by Fazza (Shiekh Hamdan bin Mohammed)
Favourite poet: Edger Allen Poe
At a glance
- 20,000 new jobs for Emiratis over three years
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
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The biog
Favourite hobby: I love to sing but I don’t get to sing as much nowadays sadly.
Favourite book: Anything by Sidney Sheldon.
Favourite movie: The Exorcist 2. It is a big thing in our family to sit around together and watch horror movies, I love watching them.
Favourite holiday destination: The favourite place I have been to is Florence, it is a beautiful city. My dream though has always been to visit Cyprus, I really want to go there.
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Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Ilyass Habibali v Haroun Baka
Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Tributes from the UAE's personal finance community
• Sebastien Aguilar, who heads SimplyFI.org, a non-profit community where people learn to invest Bogleheads’ style
“It is thanks to Jack Bogle’s work that this community exists and thanks to his work that many investors now get the full benefits of long term, buy and hold stock market investing.
Compared to the industry, investing using the common sense approach of a Boglehead saves a lot in costs and guarantees higher returns than the average actively managed fund over the long term.
From a personal perspective, learning how to invest using Bogle’s approach was a turning point in my life. I quickly realised there was no point chasing returns and paying expensive advisers or platforms. Once money is taken care off, you can work on what truly matters, such as family, relationships or other projects. I owe Jack Bogle for that.”
• Sam Instone, director of financial advisory firm AES International
"Thought to have saved investors over a trillion dollars, Jack Bogle’s ideas truly changed the way the world invests. Shaped by his own personal experiences, his philosophy and basic rules for investors challenged the status quo of a self-interested global industry and eventually prevailed. Loathed by many big companies and commission-driven salespeople, he has transformed the way well-informed investors and professional advisers make decisions."
• Demos Kyprianou, a board member of SimplyFI.org
"Jack Bogle for me was a rebel, a revolutionary who changed the industry and gave the little guy like me, a chance. He was also a mentor who inspired me to take the leap and take control of my own finances."
"Obsessed with reducing fees, Jack Bogle structured Vanguard to be owned by its clients – that way the priority would be fee minimisation for clients rather than profit maximisation for the company.
His real gift to us has been the ability to invest in the stock market (buy and hold for the long term) rather than be forced to speculate (try to make profits in the shorter term) or even worse have others speculate on our behalf.
Bogle has given countless investors the ability to get on with their life while growing their wealth in the background as fast as possible. The Financial Independence movement would barely exist without this."
"Jack Bogle was one of the greatest forces for wealth democratisation the world has ever seen. He allowed people a way to be free from the parasitical "financial advisers" whose only real concern are the fat fees they get from selling you over-complicated "products" that have caused millions of people all around the world real harm.”
• Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.org
"In an industry that’s synonymous with greed, Jack Bogle was a lone wolf, swimming against the tide. When others were incentivised to enrich themselves, he stood by the ‘fiduciary’ standard – something that is badly needed in the financial industry of the UAE."
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Year of birth: 1988
Place of birth: Baghdad
Education: PhD student and co-researcher at Greifswald University, Germany
Hobbies: Ping Pong, swimming, reading
Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species
Camelpox
Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.
Falconpox
Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.
Houbarapox
Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.
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Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE
