Jeremy Corbyn, left, and Boris Johnson, right, will face off next month in a general election. EPA
Jeremy Corbyn, left, and Boris Johnson, right, will face off next month in a general election. EPA
Jeremy Corbyn, left, and Boris Johnson, right, will face off next month in a general election. EPA
Jeremy Corbyn, left, and Boris Johnson, right, will face off next month in a general election. EPA

Britain's relations with the Gulf will be at stake in next month's general election


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When Britons go to the polls next month to elect the country’s next prime minister, the outcome could have a profound effect on the UK’s relations with the Middle East for many years to come.

For the majority of voters in Britain, the contest is being seen as the Brexit election because, irrespective of who wins, the hope is that the outcome will finally break the political paralysis that has taken hold of the country as a result of the outgoing government’s failure to break the Brexit deadlock.

Thus, if Tory leader Boris Johnson can win sufficient seats to form the new government with his “get Brexit done” slogan forming the centrepiece of his campaign, then the expectation is that he will press ahead with the deal he has negotiated with the European Union to secure Britain’s exit by January 31 next year.

If, on the other hand, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn emerges victorious, either with Labour winning an outright majority or by forming a coalition with anti-Brexit parties such as the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish nationalists, the country can expect another prolonged period of Brexit debate, with the most likely outcome being Britain holding a second referendum on the troublesome issue of EU membership.

Yet while Brexit will remain a dominant feature of the campaign, there are many other issues up for debate, not least the role Britain will play on the world stage once the new government is formed.

And at a time when the Arab world is facing increased uncertainty as a result of the Trump administration’s confused policy towards the region, the outcome of the British election could have repercussions of its own.

In his four months as prime minister since replacing Theresa May, Mr Johnson has made significant strides towards demonstrating that, under his leadership, Britain would be far more proactive in its support of its traditional Arab allies.

It behoves pro-western regimes in the Arab world to take a close interest in the outcome of Britain's general election

Prior to entering Downing Street, Mr Johnson established a warm personal friendship with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and spent a week as a guest on his private yacht last summer. Since becoming prime minister, Mr Johnson has continued to maintain a close dialogue with Riyadh, and the Saudis can expect to continue to enjoy a constructive relationship with Westminster if Mr Johnson is returned to power.

Mr Johnson's leadership has also benefited Britain's Arab allies in the Gulf, which have seen a distinctive shift in Britain's position with regard to Iran and the controversial nuclear deal. Throughout Mrs May's three-year tenure, Britain remained committed to supporting the nuclear deal with Iran, in common with France and Germany, the other European signatories. Since Mr Johnson replaced her, Westminster has taken a more robust attitude towards Tehran and has now joined American-led efforts to improve security for Gulf shipping, a move seen as hardening Britain's position, while other European countries have declined to take part, fearing that to do so might jeopardise their chances of salvaging the deal.

Mr Corbyn’s political approach to the Middle East, by contrast, appears to be almost the complete opposite of Mr Johnson’s. His sympathies have consistently veered towards Tehran, so much so that, prior to him becoming Labour leader, he was a regular contributor to Press TV, the Iranian-run propaganda channel, and his appearances – for which he was paid £20,000 – continued until the channel was banned by British regulators for its part in filming the detention and torture of an Iranian journalist. Mr Corbyn ever apologised for his association with the broadcaster, claiming his appearances over three years allowed him to raise “a number of important human rights issues”.

Another example of Mr Corbyn's apparent pro-Iranian bias can be seen in his frequent public association with members of Hezbollah, a movement widely regarded as a terrorist organisation. In a speech made to the Stop the War Coalition, he called members of Hezbollah and Hamas, both Iranian proxies, "friends". If Mr Corbyn were to succeed in his goal of becoming prime minister at the next election, there is a risk Britain would adopt a far more sympathetic approach to Tehran, with all the implications that would have for Gulf security.

The close links Mr Corbyn enjoys with groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas is another reason why Gulf states should be concerned by the prospect of him winning the election. As with Hezbollah, Mr Corbyn has been photographed on a number of occasions with leaders of Hamas, which is also designated a terrorist organisation.

Mr Corbyn also has a long track record of openly criticising Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which enjoy close relations with Britain. During the anti-government protests in Bahrain in 2011, Mr Corbyn concentrated his criticism against the Bahraini government, even though many of the protests were orchestrated by Tehran. And he has consistently called for Britain to discontinue arms sales to Riyadh, even though they are deemed vital to the Saudis’ efforts to defend themselves against unprovoked acts of Iranian aggression.

These are just a few reasons why it behoves pro-western regimes in the Arab world to take a close interest in the outcome of Britain’s general election. For while a Johnson victory is likely to herald a new era of closer ties and co-operation, a success for Mr Corbyn could jeopardise Britain’s friendly relations with the region.

Con Coughlin is the Telegraph’s defence and foreign affairs editor

The biog

Job: Fitness entrepreneur, body-builder and trainer

Favourite superhero: Batman

Favourite quote: We must become the change we want to see, by Mahatma Gandhi.

Favourite car: Lamborghini

The stats

Ship name: MSC Bellissima

Ship class: Meraviglia Class

Delivery date: February 27, 2019

Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT

Passenger capacity: 5,686

Crew members: 1,536

Number of cabins: 2,217

Length: 315.3 metres

Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

RESULTS

1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner AF Almomayaz, Hugo Lebouc (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer)

2pm Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m

Winner Karaginsky, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.

2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m

Winner Sadeedd, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard.

3pm Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,950m

Winner Blue Sovereign, Clement Lecoeuvre, Erwan Charpy.

3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m

Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.

4pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner Bladesmith, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.

4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m

Winner Shanaghai City, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.

Results:

5pm: Baynunah Conditions (UAE bred) Dh80,000 1,400m.

Winner: Al Tiryaq, Dane O’Neill (jockey), Abdullah Al Hammadi (trainer).

5.30pm: Al Zahra Handicap (rated 0-45) Dh 80,000 1,400m:

Winner: Fahadd, Richard Mullen, Ahmed Al Mehairbi.

6pm: Al Ras Al Akhdar Maiden Dh80,000 1,600m.

Winner: Jaahiz, Jesus Rosales, Eric Lemartinel.

6.30pm: Al Reem Island Handicap Dh90,000 1,600m.

Winner: AF Al Jahed, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel.

7pm: Al Khubairah Handicap (TB) 100,000 2,200m.

Winner: Empoli, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.

7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap Dh80,000 2,200m.

Winner: Shivan OA, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi.

The specs

Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8

Transmission: Eight-speed auto

Power: 575bhp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: Dh554,000

On sale: now

The specs

Engine: Two permanent-magnet synchronous AC motors

Transmission: two-speed

Power: 671hp

Torque: 849Nm

Range: 456km

Price: from Dh437,900 

On sale: now

Traits of Chinese zodiac animals

Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent   

EXPATS
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Seven%20Winters%20in%20Tehran
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%20%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Steffi%20Niederzoll%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Reyhaneh%20Jabbari%2C%20Shole%20Pakravan%2C%20Zar%20Amir%20Ebrahimi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE tour of Zimbabwe

All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I

Pakistan World Cup squad

Sarfraz Ahmed (c), Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Abid Ali, Babar Azam, Haris Sohail, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Hafeez(subject to fitness), Imad Wasim, Shadab Khan, Hasan Ali, Faheem Ashraf, Junaid Khan, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Mohammad Hasnain      

Two additions for England ODIs: Mohammad Amir and Asif Ali

Analysis

Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more

What the law says

Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.

“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.

“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”

If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory