The American novelist Ernest Hemingway wrote a famous description of how a person can go bankrupt. Bankruptcy begins “gradually then suddenly”, one of his characters said. What was true in fiction is also true of real political leaders.
The unpopularity of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has grown gradually but steadily since the 2024 general election. Now it has suddenly hit hard. Election results, from English councils to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, show widespread rejection of Mr Starmer, the Labour government he leads and the Labour party itself.
For the past century, two parties – Labour and the Conservatives – have dominated British politics. That domination appears to be over. The Conservatives also performed very badly in these elections.
That has helped power the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform party, with Mr Farage promising that “the best is yet to come”. He is preparing to be in government after the next general election, and it could happen. He rightly points to “a historic shift” in British politics in which the Green party has also performed well and the persistence of the Liberal Democrats has paid off in some areas.
The success of nationalist parties in their parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales joins the past successes of Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland to show that the British “two-party system” is a delusion this year. We live now in a multi-party democracy, although the UK retains an antiquated electoral system that for the past 100 or so years did benefit Labour and the Conservatives. That time has gone, perhaps temporarily but possibly – some think probably – forever.
In the short term, Mr Starmer remains Prime Minister. He says defiantly “I’m not going to walk away” from the job. But voters have walked – or run – away from his party. Nevertheless, Mr Starmer may stay in Downing Street because there is no obvious choice of a successor.
Even in historic Labour heartlands in the north of England, the party has been humiliated. The ambitious Labour mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, would be a talented possible choice for the leadership, but the catch is that he is not an MP. If he tried to become one even in a formerly solid Labour seat, he might actually lose and end his own political career.
But this week’s shake-up should unnerve the Conservative party, too. It suffered a crushing defeat in the 2024 general election and has had half a dozen leaders in less than a decade. The current leader, Kemi Badenoch, and her party still remain unpopular.
To add to the misery, Labour and the Conservatives have both performed poorly in the Scotland and Wales parliamentary elections. That, coupled with the rise of Sinn Fein to power in Northern Ireland, means that even the political structure of the UK is itself open to question in the long term. Northern Ireland and Scotland may, at some time in the future, demand to hold referendums on leaving the UK.
Halfway through a parliamentary term, as Britain is now, “mid-term blues” for the government are not unusual. But this year is obviously so much worse than normal. British people have come to recognise that in the 21st century, our democratic system has failed to produce stability. If – when – Mr Starmer is forced out, the UK will have its seventh prime minister in a decade or so. A Premier League football team that had such churn in its top managers would face relegation to a lower division.
As for the big winners this week, Reform UK, the victories are real but so are the problems ahead.
One is a lack of experience in running a complex country of almost 70 million people, although (for now at least) that sense of freshness may be an asset since Labour and the Conservatives for all their experience have performed so dismally. Second, there are constant ethical questions about some Reform political candidates, councillors and leading figures. They have been splits and defections from the party, and questions about allegedly racist comments made by some members.
Then the British elections watchdog, the Electoral Commission, is also considering whether to investigate a £5 million (almost $7 million) gift from a crypto billionaire called Christopher Harborne to Mr Farage, which Mr Farage says was for his own personal security. It’s not clear why such a vast sum of money appears to have been seen as necessary.
What we can say for certain is that British politics is in a profound state of flux. Voters are split five or six ways. Under the antiquated British “first past the post” system, that means any party that can achieve about a third of the votes could win a landslide at a general election victory. Some may predict all this inevitably means “Curtains for Keir”, but for now it appears that Labour MPs believe the last thing they need is an internal battle over a new leader.
As for the clearly divided British public, perhaps we would all be satisfied with a period of calm and clear leadership. For now, it seems our gradual sense of political change – as Hemingway suggested – could very suddenly shock us all.
