On Tuesday, Donald Trump suggested that talks with Iran could resume this week. The US President’s apparent desire to end the war against Tehran is understandable, having found himself in a box with no easy way out.
A number of polls are showing that key elements of his winning electoral coalition are growing weary of the war and frustrated with its domestic consequences. For example, the most recent polls, including by Pew Research and others, show the percentage of Republicans who are opposed to this war has risen from 11 per cent to more than 30 per cent.
As we approach the midterm elections, Republicans in Congress are also nervous about how voters may react when they go to vote.
There are several Republican-related groups to consider – each with concerns of their own.
The establishment Republican elites wanted one thing from Mr Trump: smaller government with lower taxes. Because the US President never fit the mould of a true conservative, these more traditional conservatives were initially hesitant to embrace his candidacy. However, when he reduced regulations on their industries, lowered their taxes and began to reduce government outlays for social programmes while increasing defence expenditures, they came on board.
The religious conservatives were also initially concerned that Mr Trump’s own personal behaviour and his past positions on a range of “social issues” might not be in sync with their “traditional values” agenda. Here, too, he has mollified concerns by issuing executive orders and appointing federal judges that support the Christian conservatives’ programme.
Most consequential to this President’s success is the group now referred to as Maga, or “Make America Great Again”, supporters – that is the diverse collection of voters who have hitched their hopes to Mr Trump’s success.
Many of these voters had previously identified as Democrats. They are folks who feel left behind by the changing economy, have lost hope that they or their children can achieve the American dream, and feel abandoned by policymakers in Washington.
They embraced Mr Trump when he told them he understood their pain and that he alone could fix what was wrong by reordering our governmental priorities, enabling both America and their communities and families to “be great again”.
Central to his campaign were promises to end expenditures on “endless wars” and by prioritising the needs of everyday Americans by making their lives more affordable. Because these Republican voters have been so trusting of the President’s performance – even in instances where it required them to suspend their better judgment – a range of polls showed that 80 per cent of Republicans and self-identified Maga voters were initially overwhelmingly with the President at the start of the Iran war.
That is no longer the case. As mentioned earlier, more and more Republicans are increasingly opposed to this war.
One reason for this may be that the administration had made it appear that this conflict would be over quickly and decisively. With hostilities now into a second month and fuel prices rising, affecting a number of downstream costs, voters are becoming anxious. Most recent polls like The Economist/YouGov Poll and the one conducted by Quinnipiac show that more than 50 per cent of Maga voters blame the war for the increase in fuel prices.
In a related matter, while traditional conservatives and neo-conservatives celebrated the President’s budget – with large increases in defence spending and reductions in “discretionary spending” on social spending, Maga voters haven’t digested what that translates to for them. Little noticed were Mr Trump’s follow-up comments that the federal government could no longer afford to spend on day care, Medicare and food benefits to low-income families.
He said: “[We can’t] spend any money for day care because the United States can’t take care of day care. We’re a big country. We have 50 states we have all these other people. We’re fighting wars. It’s not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things.”
There isn’t any polling yet on these issues, but it is precisely low and middle-income households – who make up the bulk of Maga voters – who will be affected by these cuts, if Congress allows them to occur.
They are the voters who require affordable day care to allow both partners to work. They are the senior citizens who depend on Medicare to allow them to receive the health care they need. And they are the farmers who benefit from food subsidy programmes that provide them with a guaranteed market for their products.
And so, even though Mr Trump is reportedly being urged by some of his regional allies not to walk away from the war, he is being pressured by his base and Republicans running for office in competitive districts to find a way to end the conflict before more voters turn against them.
