With nearly a quarter of the non-Iranian large oil tankers trapped inside the Arabian Gulf managing to slip out, shipowners are increasingly optimistic about an increase in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
More vessels left the waterway this week, with the US providing information to aid those making the journey.
Twenty-nine of the 109 bigger vessels, those capable of hauling 700,000 barrels or more, which were stranded when the strait was effectively shut after the conflict started on February 28, have now crossed the chokepoint, shipping data compiled by Bloomberg shows.
At least two shipowners, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information, said they were in touch with US military forces, which advised them on how best to cross the waterway.
A representative of US Central Command said US military assets are not escorting ships, but the command continues to provide advice to commercial vessels in the region.
One person with knowledge of a crossing said a group of vessels was approached by suspected Iranian fast boats during the journey. The boats were turned away by helicopters that suddenly nearby, allowing the person’s vessel to continue away from Hormuz, they said.
Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth told Bloomberg TV on Friday that some vessels crossing the strait have recently come under attack. On the same day, the US affirmed that deals with Iran to safely sail through the strait – even those which do not involve paying a toll – are prohibited.
Some of the ships that have crossed belong to companies that had not crossed since the war began, according to several people involved in shipping markets. Two people said some ships were entering the Arabian Gulf as well as leaving.
If sustained, the increase in transits could signal that more shipping companies are willing to make the journey, boosting the flow of everything from oil and gas to consumer goods. Until now, transits had largely been limited to vessels operating under bilateral government arrangements or owned by the small group of more daring shipping executives willing to accept the risks of sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Some of the vessels that crossed in recent days did so with their satellite transponders switched off and have yet to turn them back on. It is a sign that conventional vessel-tracking methods may understate how many are making the voyage.
Ship-tracking data shows that at least a quarter of the non-Iranian ships stranded in the strait since the conflict began have made their way out.
The White House has repeatedly sent conflicting messages on the prospects for a deal with Iran. A new agreement between the two nations could potentially open the door for a broader reopening of shipping through the strait.
Owners privately said they hope the agreement would allow for a resumption of Hormuz flows, but that uncertainty remained until its full details were known.
TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said on Friday his company would want indications of lasting peace before sending vessels back into the Arabian Gulf.
A sustained resumption to shipping also has the potential to boost oil tanker earnings that are already the highest in a generation in the short-term, if a peace emerges that leaves shipowners comfortable to transit.
“We would expect, if you like, a frenzy phase to start with,” once the strait reopens, Gerasimos Kalogiratos, chief executive of Capital Tankers, said on an earnings call this week. He added that tanker costs would stay high in the longer-term as global oil inventories refill barrels lost to the war.
