How might Narendra Modi, on the one hand, and ordinary Indian citizens, on the other, remember 2025? The answer: somewhat differently.
Over the past year, the Indian Prime Minister has seen a revival in his political fortunes, even though the country has faced strong headwinds. Whether there is still a disconnect between the country’s fortunes and those of its leadership in 12 months’ time will partly depend on how quickly, if at all, the opposition parties get their act together in 2026.
It was a different story just 18 months ago, when those same opposition parties came together in a general election to deny Mr Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party an absolute majority in the lower house of Parliament.
The BJP eventually cobbled together a coalition government, and the Prime Minister secured a third consecutive term. But unlike previous terms, he was now beholden to a handful of much smaller parties to stay in power. For a politician who never had to rely on coalitions to run a government, including during his 13 years as chief minister of Gujarat state, this was uncharted territory.
The election result also confirmed what some analysts had predicted: after a decade in office, Mr Modi’s popularity was bound to diminish. Many Indians, including some in his own party, had begun to ask: “After Modi, who?”
Since the summer of 2024, however, national politics has made a U-turn – well, sort of. Mr Modi still runs a coalition government that could yet fall if two of the BJP’s most crucial partners quit. But the alliance is, if anything, on firmer ground than it was at the beginning of the year.
This surefootedness follows a string of unexpectedly strong electoral performances from the BJP, winning four out of the five state assembly elections held since the parliamentary vote. Its partners in two of these states are also its coalition partners in New Delhi – a fact that has cemented Mr Modi’s hold on power.
The Prime Minister’s approval ratings have been strong, too.
A case in point is the August edition of the India Today media group’s Mood of the Nation survey, which revealed that 51.5 per cent of Indians still preferred Mr Modi as their leader while opposition figurehead Rahul Gandhi was a distant second, polling at 24.7 per cent. That the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty – a household name across the country – is unable to close the gap with the Prime Minister after more than a decade should make for a sobering read from the opposition’s perspective.
Can the BJP’s recent successes solely be attributed to Mr Modi’s popularity? A party leader recently remarked that if Mr Modi “is not our leader, the BJP may not even win 150 seats” in a general election.
It is an exaggerated view. After all, the party maintains a robust organisation throughout the country and has a formidable war chest. Its brand of Hindu nationalism is India’s current ideological zeitgeist, and its collective willingness to stay humble, learn from its mistakes and course-correct – all at warp speed – is vastly underappreciated.
Leadership matters, of course. Mr Modi’s charisma, work ethic, constant reinvention and crossover appeal continue to give him a qualitative edge over his peers, particularly when faced with a divided opposition.
Yet it’s hard to believe that all of these qualities, and structural advantages, would still insulate the Prime Minister and his government from the many setbacks India has experienced in 2025.
Extreme weather during the June-September monsoon claimed more than 1,500 lives across India. The country saw its worst aviation accident in more than a decade. Deadly stampedes occurred at large religious and sports gatherings. Some longer-term issues resurfaced, including rural distress, crumbling urban infrastructure, attacks on minorities and continued institutional corrosion.
Even before the disputed region of Jammu-Kashmir was rocked by a terror attack that killed 26 civilians, leading to a brief but serious military confrontation with Pakistan, India’s relations had declined with some of its other neighbours, including Bangladesh and Nepal. But few could have anticipated that its painstakingly cultivated post-Cold War relationship with the US would hit rock bottom over a range of issues in a matter of just months.
Despite these challenges, the economy grew by 6.5 per cent in 2025 and is expected to expand at a similar rate over the next two years. The Modi government deserves credit for this, as it does for legislating reforms in key areas such as taxation and labour laws, aimed at attracting long-term foreign investment and economic growth.
It isn’t fair to lay the blame for all of India’s problems at the Modi government’s doorstep either, particularly those playing out at state and local levels. But underlying the country’s governance-related ills, at multiple levels and regardless of party or leader, is a curious absence of accountability.
That civil society members regularly hit the streets to call for action proves there are growing calls to address this chronic lack of accountability. The question is whether the opposition parties can tap into this reservoir of disenchantment, build movements and force governments at all levels to either shape up or ship out.
Until voters know they have viable alternatives at the ballot box, the apparent disconnect between the fortunes of ordinary Indians and those of their leaders is likely to continue.
