The UAE and India are a 21st-century economic power couple in the making

The UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which came into force in May 2022, aims to create $100 billion worth of non-oil trade by 2030. WAM

There is an old saying in the Gulf: “We are not separated by the sea – we are connected by it.” Few relationships in today’s world illustrate that better than the deep and accelerating bond between the UAE and India.

For centuries, the two have traded goods, ideas and talent across the Arabian Sea. But what is happening today is different. This isn’t nostalgia or a warm diplomatic footnote. This is economic geometry in motion – two of the most dynamic, ambitious and fast-growing forces in the Global South locking into place, creating a new axis of prosperity between the Arabian Peninsula and South Asia.

Let us start with the basics. India is the world’s most populous nation, and its economy is just getting started. With 1.4 billion people, a median age of 28, and an expanding middle class expected to hit 700 million by 2030, India is no longer “the next big thing”. It is the current big thing. Its gross domestic product is forecast to grow at 6.7 per cent annually over the next several years, making it the fastest-growing major economy on Earth. The engine? A potent cocktail of digital infrastructure, fintech leadership, manufacturing resurgence and an innovation-first mindset.

India and the UAE are building a bridge between East and West, North and South, tradition and disruption

Now, let us look west. The UAE is writing its own playbook for post-oil prosperity – and winning. Non-oil GDP is rising, sovereign investment arms control more than $2 trillion in assets, earning Abu Dhabi the title “the capital of capital”, and diversification is no longer a slogan, it is an operating model. The UAE just leapfrogged into the top 10 globally for foreign direct investment and has become a launchpad for global capital, talent and technology. It is not a stretch to say this is where the future is being prototyped.

So, what happens when a trillion-dollar ambition meets a billion-person momentum?

You get a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, signed at record speed, negotiated faster than any trade deal in the region’s history. You get Indian billionaires such as Yusuff Ali (LuLu Group) and Dr Azad Moopen (Aster DM Healthcare) building empires from Dubai. You get a $4 billion fund set up by Abu Dhabi Investment Authority to invest in Indian markets. In fact, you get a $100 billion bilateral trade target, which many believe will be dwarfed by actual flows in the next decade. And you get flights – lots of them. More than 30 per cent of India’s outbound international air traffic now routes through the UAE, with new capacity on the runway as carriers double down on demand.

But beyond the numbers lies a bigger truth: India and the UAE are building something systemically significant – a bridge between East and West, North and South, tradition and disruption. India is the manufacturing, technology, fintech hub and also a billion-plus people’s market. The UAE is the mega investor, trade powerhouse and the futurist. Together, they are proving that South-South co-operation isn’t just a development slogan – it is a new engine of global growth. The proof is in the pudding. The power couple are investing in the region, taking off with the India-UAE agreement to develop an energy hub in Sri Lanka.

The implications are profound: a new investment corridor for green energy and AI, joint ventures in advanced manufacturing, supply chain resilience built outside traditional western hubs, and a combined tech-and-talent platform that can serve both domestic markets and the wider world.

We will also see the power couple complement each other’s ambitions, and together influence global trade. The UAE’s unabashed quest for excellence will rub off on India’s aspirations. India has also long looked upon the UAE for its immense stability, poise and efficiently planned implementation of policies and projects. On the other hand, the UAE will gain from India’s historical emphasis on skills and higher education, while the UAE looks to strengthen its own. Now together, they will offer to be the world’s single most high-tech innovation laboratory, fuelled by the smartest brains and shared aspiration to be at the top.

This isn’t geopolitics. It is geoeconomics. And it is only just the beginning.

The future of global growth won’t just be shaped in boardrooms in New York or Shanghai. It will be built across two sunrise economies – between Delhi and Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Ahmedabad, where ambition isn’t tempered by bureaucracy, but supercharged by vision.

This is the moment. And the world is watching.

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Dr Yasar Jarrar teaches at the Hult International Business School and is managing partner at Gov Campus

Dr Miniya Chatterji is chief executive at Sustain Labs Paris, a sustainability-focused venture builder