“Next steps” are an easy concept to propose, but they are often painful to deliver. That’s why the recent stirring of European diplomacy, for the establishment of a new phase aiming to deliver a fully fledged Palestinian state, is worth watching.
The challenge, as so often is the case, was laid out last week by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. He looked at the devastation in Gaza and the voracious encroachment across the West Bank and called for new means to the end goal.
“The promise of a two-state solution is at risk of vanishing altogether,” he said. “Political will to achieve that goal feels more distant than ever. I urge member states to go beyond declarations and consider concrete steps to save the two-state solution – before it disappears altogether.”
The opportunity ahead for the resurgent European diplomacy is a UN high-level conference on the issue next month, which will be co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and France. The priority outcome is an endorsement of the Arab plan for an end to the war in Gaza and the establishment of peace and security. A very important plank is standing up an international force across Palestine that is charged with security. The introduction of this cordon of security would firmly put the occupation of those lands into the international realm.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been enlivened by the prospect of the meeting, and he has mobilised his country’s foreign ministry as well as its diplomatic strategists to achieve an ambitious outcome. It is notable that Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has criss-crossed the region in recent weeks in an intensive effort to co-ordinate the French efforts with its regional partners.
Just as visible here in Europe is how much the French are reaching out to their partners to ensure there is movement on the matter ahead of next month’s meeting. In particular the French have included their British counterparts at every level, from Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who was in Paris not so long ago, to National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, who has considerable experience in two-state diplomacy.
There are detractors in the French system who say that Mr Macron’s declaration in early April on recognising the Palestinian state will be hard to fulfil. Almost 150 countries recognise Palestine as a state, but the big outlier is Europe, which is divided in half on the issue.
When Mr Macron said his country must move forward on recognition, he added a moral dimension to it saying it must happen because it would be fair. The intervention has set up the prospect of a diplomatic coup, but it has also raised questions over the French leader’s plan, or the lack of one.
The UK government has strengthened its language on the quest for recognition, too, even as it remains unable to deliver the announcement in the current conditions. The challenge for Mr Lammy and his team is that they also need to respond to domestic political pressure for a declaration, especially from the government backbenches.
When Palestinians gather next week to mark the Nakba of May 15, 1948, there will just days to finalise the agreed points to emerge from next month’s conference.
It will be vital to pull in the incoming German foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, who met Mr Lammy at the end of last month. His appointment this week gives Berlin an opportunity to subtly redefine its role on the Palestinian issue where it has largely been a blocker. It’s also worth watching US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf next week for some indication of how Washington will be positioned at the conference.
It is important for the conference to achieve the overall goals set by Mr Guterres and both the co-chairs, including Saudi Arabia, which will host Mr Trump next week. Working alongside the Saudi leadership now is the best way to enhance Europe’s deep experience and strong advocacy for an even-handed resolution to the situation.
It is heartening to see London and Paris shift gears in their push for a new opportunity, even as the fighting in Gaza once again intensifies.
Driving all this on the European side are concerns about the besieged population in the West Bank. It didn’t take Louis Theroux’s remarkable documentary on the situation there to raise awareness on this point to the viewing public, but it is nonetheless a cultural waking-up point. The programme very much chimed with the public mood in Europe.
It was also good to see the Palestinian Authority take steps towards internal reforms, which shows that solutions are still forming up ahead of the June meeting. A visit to London by Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa proved encouraging for his hosts on the scope for change.
The almost unfathomable task of rebuilding Gaza demands the urgency of great statesmanship. Given the spoilers that lie ahead, the “next steps” on statehood need a joint push from many quarters. The New York meeting is an opportunity to show that it can happen.
