Trump's cabinet picks say a lot already about what to expect of this administration

Then US President Donald Trump during a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, on January 2, 2019. AFP

Given his mercurial and unpredictable character, and his track record during the four years of his first administration, it is sometimes hard to foresee US president-elect Donald Trump's policy directions.

The best indication of how the next four years might look at this early stage comes from his initial appointments – including unlikely characters such as billionaire Elon Musk and television presenter Pete Hegseth – and others being rapidly announced. They are starting to sketch out a picture of where the returning Mr Trump intends to take his second stint in the White House.

The first and most obvious characteristic of these new appointments are the twin litmus tests each appointee must meet.

Trump nominations

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• Fox News presenter Pete Hegseth to run Department of Defence
• Trump confirms Marco Rubio as his pick for secretary of state
• Mike Huckabee as next US ambassador to Israel
• Profile: Elise Stefanik, Trump’s new ambassador to the UN
• Profile: Kristi Noem, Trump’s choice for head of Homeland Security
• Who could serve in Donald Trump’s cabinet? The top contenders for each position

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First, everyone must be an election denier, maintaining that Mr Trump was somehow robbed of a legitimate victory in 2020 by a "deep state", which magically failed to take any action to prevent his re-election last week. The claim has even less basis given the power of Democratic governors in so many of the key swing states, especially in the Rust Belt, in which Mr Trump prevailed over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Virtually all of these appointees surely know that President Joe Biden won legitimately and decisively in 2020, and that the only reason there isn't another brouhaha over a contested election result this year is that Mr Trump emerged victorious. But it appears that if you want to serve in his administration, you must publicly endorse the fabrication that the 2020 election was a fraud against the voters.

The second litmus test is opposition to US aid to Ukraine. Thus far, no supporter of such aid has received any appointment. Mr Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr, posted on X that "you’re 38 days away from losing your allowance", alluding to the date of the US elections, over a video of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

This Freudian taunt suggests that rhetoric from Mr Trump and his vice president-elect JD Vance about cutting aid to Ukraine and attempting to force Kyiv to come to terms with Moscow under disadvantageous conditions will indeed guide policy. Hence the absence of familiar pro-Trump figures such as Mike Pompeo who aren’t election deniers or opponents of Ukraine.

Marco Rubio, the prospective secretary of state, and Michael Waltz, who could be national security adviser, will be regarded as somewhat reassuring by many US overseas partners and traditional Republican hawks. Both are regarded as relatively serious figures despite their opposition to military support for Ukraine and the denial of the legitimacy of the 2020 election. But these appointments certainly suggest that Ukraine needs to brace itself for a heavy reduction, if not elimination, of US military support in its war against Russia. Kyiv also needs to prepare for a pressure campaign from Washington to effectively accept Moscow's capture of large chunks of Ukrainian territory, at least through an armistice essentially along current military dividing lines.

There is also terrible news for the Palestinians, although worse could be to come if Mr Trump's former ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, obtains an official post regarding Israel policy. He remains highly engaged in Mr Trump's political circles, and has just published a book arguing that Israel should annex the occupied Palestinian territories, making the Palestinians non-citizen residents with no vote – a prescription for formalised apartheid.

His replacement as US ambassador to Israel, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, might be just as unfortunate for Palestinian rights. He has repeatedly claimed that there is no occupation, that settlements are merely Jewish communities, and that "Judea and Samaria" (meaning the occupied Palestinian West Bank) are already "part of Israel".

Israeli annexationists have been some of the most excited non-Americans about Mr Trump's re-election. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have both stated that, given this outcome, 2025 should be the year of "sovereignty" in "Judea and Samaria", meaning annexation of the occupied West Bank.

They will be greatly encouraged by Mr Huckabee's appointment, and the continued presence of Mr Friedman and Jared Kushner, Mr Trump's son-in-law, in his Middle East policymaking circles. Israeli media have revealed that the two have been receiving policy and security updates regularly from Israeli officials in recent months in anticipation of their return to centrality in US policymaking on Israel and the Palestinians.

Palestinians are also very unlikely to be treated fairly by Mr Trump’s selection as US ambassador to the UN, Elise Stefanik, who presided over hearings in the House of Representatives denouncing universities for permitting pro-Palestinian protests on campuses.

Finally, the administration is likely to be brutal on migrants. Mr Trump's campaign rhetoric about deporting millions of undocumented immigrants seems on track for implementation. The appointments of South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem as secretary of homeland security and Tom Homan, his former acting director of immigration and customs enforcement, as his "border czar", suggest preparations for an all-out effort to expel undocumented migrants from the country.

Anti-immigrant hardliner Stephen Miller has been named Mr Trump's White House deputy chief of staff after declaring at one of the last Trump campaign rallies that, "America is for Americans and Americans only". Mr Miller's grandparents, it is worth noting, fled the Holocaust in Europe and were not turned away.

Senior Trump advisor Stephen Miller at a campaign rally for US President-elect Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden in New York, on October 27. "America is for Americans and Americans only," he has said at one of Trump's last campaign rallies. AFP

Mr Homan has declared that "whole families" can be deported together, suggesting that US citizens might be expelled with their migrant parents. And he has promised to revive the policy of separating children from their parents whenever possible to determine migration.

He has also stated that he will use the military to force out up to 20 million asylum-seekers and other undocumented migrants. The deportation programme will be so vast that, if actually implemented, it will probably require the deputisation of tens of thousands of armed civilians to carry it out. And there is no shying away from the fact that it will perforce be violent and brutal.

So the new policies are taking shape, with absolutely terrible implications for Ukrainians, Palestinians, migrants and people who retain the ability to acknowledge the fact that the 2020 election was as fair and valid as the election Mr Trump just won.