The region's sixth war in 40 years could be its worst yet

Israel's anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched by Iran in response to the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Reuters

The Gulf countries are gearing up for a major military conflict between Israel and Iran, which – were it to happen – will be the Middle East’s sixth in a span of about 40 years.

The Iran-Iraq War that began in 1980 lasted for eight years and was the region’s longest conflict in the 20th century. Only a few years later, in 1991, the Gulf lived through a war to liberate Kuwait, which had been invaded by Iraq just months earlier. This short and decisive war consolidated America’s unipolar moment in world history.

The third major regional war was the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which turned out to be a significant strategic blunder for Washington. Tehran emerged as the geopolitical winner, paving the way for a nearly two-decade-long Iranian epoch.

Then there was the 2015 Yemen war, which was one of necessity for the Saudi-led Arab Coalition. The sudden takeover of the capital, Sanaa, by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels was the latest manifestation of Tehran’s apparent encirclement of part of the Arab world. The coalition had no choice but to draw the line in Yemen.

The fifth war in this sequence of regional conflicts is the Gaza war that began on this day last year, when Hamas, another proxy of Iran, led an assault on southern Israel, claiming more than 1,200 lives. Israel’s war in Gaza, which is taking place about 1,500km away from the Gulf, has spilt over into Lebanon.

A demonstrator carries a portrait of slain Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in Tehran on October 2, a day after Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel. AFP

It is destabilising the Middle East and raising the temperature throughout the region. The catastrophic war taking place inside the Palestinian enclave has displaced almost two million people and killed almost 42,000, the majority of whom are women and children. A year later, the war is worryingly paving the way for a possible sixth conflict is the neighbourhood.

There were five other wars directly linked to the Arab-Israeli conflict, which is the longest unresolved regional conflict of the past hundred years. These were mostly waged between Israel and its Arab neighbours, Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, and they proved to be disastrous with profound consequences not just for Palestinians but for all the countries in the region.

No country can stop this worst-case scenario from occurring other than the US

Yet the impending war between Israel and Iran has the potential to be the worst of all the conflicts mentioned above. It is important to point out that the Middle East has not seen a full decade of sustained peace and stability in its recent history. This, in no small part, has been the handiwork of both Israel and Iran, whose policies have landed the Middle East in a mess. It seems they are not done just yet.

US President Joe Biden says he has urged Israel to act “responsibly and proportionally” against its foe. EPA / Bloomberg

These two adversaries are heavily armed with all kinds of weaponry, including ballistic and supersonic missiles, and a wide variety of drones. Between them, one (Israel) is widely believed to have nuclear weapons and the other (Iran) is a potential nuclear state.

Worse yet, Israel views Iran as an existential threat to it, a point that Israeli leaders unfailingly repeat. Just last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel is in an “existential war” with Iran, and that “we will settle the score with anyone who harms us”. On the other hand, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to reiterate its mission to eliminate Israel.

Both countries are now close to having a full-scale war with each other that would push the entire region into uncharted territory.

No country can stop this worst-case scenario from occurring other than the US. However, American leaders are currently focused on a close, high-stakes presidential election year. The administration of President Joe Biden appears too weak to stop Israel from responding in kind to Iran’s recent missile attacks. Mr Biden says he has urged Israel to act “responsibly and proportionally” against its foe.

This conflict, were it to happen, would essentially be Mr Netanyahu’s war. Iran has played into his hands by presenting him with the perfect alibi to fulfil his long-held objective of eliminating Tehran’s vast nuclear weapons programme. He welcomed the G7 leaders’ unequivocal condemnation of Iran’s attack on Israel. It could be the case that he has taken the grouping’s statement to be a tacit approval for him to retaliate against Tehran. The Gulf countries, meanwhile, have expressed deep concern and issued statements calling for de-escalation.

However, while some states in the region might welcome the opportunity for Israel to weaken Iran’s political grip over Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, they are right to be concerned that the actions of Mr Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition government are not in the interest of peace and stability in the region.

The six Gulf states will undoubtedly be preparing for the worst-case scenario. They have, after all, seen the devastations wrought by the last five wars. Yet they have not just survived them all, but they have also managed to preserve their stability and prosperity. They would do the same this time around, too.

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