US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the announcement of Mr Trump's Middle East peace plan, in Washington in January 2020. AFP
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the announcement of Mr Trump's Middle East peace plan, in Washington in January 2020. AFP
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the announcement of Mr Trump's Middle East peace plan, in Washington in January 2020. AFP
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
December 22, 2024
For both Israel and Turkey, the present moment may appear to be a golden opportunity to forge a durable bond in the coming years. But it is more likely that this is going to be a temporary, tactical alliance rather than a strategic partnership, given the conflicting nature of national interests and the personalities of their leaders.
Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are betting on US president-elect Donald Trump, with a mix of confidence and anxiety.
Indeed, Mr Trump, while mercurial, is decisive when it comes to American interests, which he prioritises above all else. Mr Trump disdains complacency, whether in personal relationships with world leaders or in assumptions about his broader policies and future actions. His influence is already shaping international and regional power dynamics even before entering the White House, redefining the positions of Turkey and Israel in the new map of the Middle East.
The outline of a new Pax Americana – or American-led peace – is reassuring to some but is triggering panic in others, who fear it might signal unchecked American hegemony at the expense of a multipolar world.
Yet, the traditional concept of Pax Americana is not the objective for Mr Trump, who does not want the US to bear the costs of maintaining such peace. He does not believe in paying for the defence of others, as evident in his stance towards Nato member states.
US President Donald Trump with Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan at a joint news conference at the White House in November 2019. Reuters
Mr Trump does not want America to fund state-building in any other country. Rather, he envisions a Pax Americana that brings benefits, profits and wealth to the US, one centred on investment in America, requiring favourable environments and the removal of obstacles to this vision.
The Middle East is undergoing seismic transformations that have, so far, resulted in pushing Russia out of its Syrian bases and potentially ejecting it from the Mediterranean. Regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin's claim that withdrawing from Syria was a "mission accomplished" victory against terrorism, his statements about the future of Russian bases are striking.
The outlines of a new Pax Americana – or American-led peace – is reassuring to some but is triggering panic in others
He said Russia did not know to what extent it needs the bases in Syria and what they might offer, adding that Moscow is reassessing the future of its presence in Syria based on the actions of the new Syrian authorities.
Despite Mr Putin's claims, however, losing the Hmeimim and Tartus bases on the Mediterranean is likely to erode Russia's capabilities and curtail its ambitions in the Middle East and Africa. The loss in Syria will be costly for Russia in Libya and its African deployments.
Meanwhile, what Mr Erdogan could offer Mr Trump and other Nato leaders, as well as to Israel, is a new Syria, in which Turkey could help oversee upcoming elections and play a role in drafting a new constitution, applying Turkey's governance model. Mr Erdogan may promise, though not guarantee, that Syria will not turn into a hub for Islamic extremism.
Mr Trump has expressed admiration for Mr Erdogan’s ambitions and personality, calling their relationship "great" and Mr Erdogan a "very strong and smart man” worthy of the greatness of the Ottoman Empire, which previously dominated Syria for hundreds of years.
Mr Trump described Mr Erdogan's actions in Syria as an "unfriendly takeover" through opposition factions but stated, "I think Turkey is very smart," adding, "Turkey wanted control of Syria 'for thousands of years' and now they have it” in reference to the Ottoman history of Syria.
Turkey’s foreign minister objected to Mr Trump’s description of Ankara’s actions as a "takeover", but behind the scenes, Mr Trump’s team assured Mr Erdogan’s government that Mr Trump would not stand in Turkey’s way as long as it respects America’s red lines vis-a-vis the Kurds.
Furthermore, the US could drop opposition to Turkey's acquisition of F-35 aircraft, and to its imposition of its governance model in Syria and expansion of influence in North Africa from Libya to Egypt.
Russian President Vladimir Putin with President Erdogan on the sidelines of the Brics summit in Kazan, Russia, in October. AP
Indeed, US interests currently align with Turkey’s readiness to act on behalf of Washington and Nato capitals. And Turkey would double its regional influence should it succeed in imposing its model in Syria first, followed by Egypt and other Arab nations.
Iranian leaders are also concerned if the US decides to launch strikes against Iran. The US conditions to not strike, in simple terms, are firstly: Iran’s complete cessation of any projects or ambitions related to acquiring nuclear weapons as quickly as possible. Secondly, the dismantling of Tehran’s doctrine based on extending its influence and exporting its revolution through loyal proxies and militias.
As it appears now, Tehran is not prepared at this juncture to play by these rules, perhaps due to its internal disputes. However, Mr Trump does not want to wait for Iran to complete its nuclear programme. He wants to seize the opportunity presented by Iran’s current strategic weakness – otherwise, he could shift from incentives to threats and cripple Iran economically, along with its nuclear programme.
It can be said that the most significant relationship for Mr Trump in the Middle East is the US-Israeli alliance, which the president-elect wants to be the strongest. Israel today is at its strongest regionally and it wants Turkey's co-operation with its policies towards Iran, particularly in relation of striking Iran's nuclear capabilities.
The regional balance of power has shifted dramatically following the decline of Iran’s influence and the rise of Turkey and Israel to prominence. Arab countries are cautious, aware that their weight could become more significant if they use their leverage effectively. Some Gulf countries are trying to avoid ideological alignment, taking a position on Iran, or entangling themselves in Turkish-Israeli relations.
The strongest leverage Gulf countries have is their openness to the "deal of the century", which Mr Trump wants to implement, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Israel, while maintaining their positions on a Palestinian state and the two-state solution.
Additionally, there are tools for influencing the reconstruction of Lebanon and Syria – not only practically on the ground but also by shaping the reconstruction of both countries to ensure they remain in the Arab fold, despite Turkish and Israeli projects aiming to impose changes in them aligned with their interests.
The US would be mistaken if it gave Turkey or Israel unchecked authority to meddle in Arab countries. This is because the new Pax Americana carries significant opportunities that could serve American interests through the Arab gateway. But this cannot be done by turning the Middle East into a Turkish-Israeli feast, to the tunes of an American carte blanche.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
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Family: Wife, Pom; and daughters Kate, 18, and Ciara, 13, who attend Jumeirah English Speaking School (JESS)
Favourite book or author: “That’s a really difficult question. I’m a big fan of Donna Tartt, The Secret History. I’d recommend that, go and have a read of that.”
Dream: “It would be to continue to have fun and to work with really interesting people, which I have been very fortunate to do for a lot of my life. I just enjoy working with very smart, fun people.”
Funding: $12.9m from Kuwait-based Faith Capital Holding
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
match info
Southampton 0
Arsenal 2 (Nketiah 20', Willock 87')
Red card: Jack Stephens (Southampton)
Man of the match: Rob Holding (Arsenal)
Which honey takes your fancy?
Al Ghaf Honey
The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
Sidr Honey
The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest
Samar Honey
The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments
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Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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