Call for emergency UK census to include new Sunni and Shiite categories

Policy Exchange group claims study of migration effects would identify hotspots of demographic changes and potential risk of extremism

People playing football in the street in Luton, one of the towns undergoing rapid change as a result of migration. Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images

An emergency census is needed in the UK to capture the extent of mass migration that has triggered social change and help identify areas where segregation could lead to extremism, a report has found.

The study from think tank Policy Exchange says the population of the Britain increased by 3.9 million in the three years to June 2024, though the raw numbers since have fallen back.

Normally a census is held in the first year of each decade but the Policy Exchange referred to one held in 1966. This headcount was arranged due to concerns over the scale of Commonwealth migration to and internal movement from the northern regions to southern England.

Nadhim Zahawi, a cabinet minister in previous Conservative governments who wrote the foreword for the report, said concerns among the British public over the effect of migration on public services, social cohesion and national identity “must not be shunned”.

The report called for census reforms, including inserting denominational categories such as "Catholic, Protestant, Sunni, and Shia [Shiite] for the census question on religious affiliation". It said this would help analysis of communities and allow for the identification of "interface areas" where the risk of communal and sectarian tensions may be higher.

It also called for changes in volunteered information on national identity, "so respondents are given the opportunity to report the relative strength of their British and English identities".

Although the next UK census is not due until 2031, the report's authors advocate a two-tier approach for an out-of-cycle 2026 census, taking a national sample of 10 per cent of the population, plus running a full census in five "special study areas", choosing places it claims together provide a reasonable regional spread of England.

The report’s author Rakib Ehsan said the call was driven by “massive population growth fuelled by unprecedented levels of immigration”.

“Crucially, it will also allow us to identify areas characterised by worsening forms of religious and cultural segregation, which can provide fertile ground for the growth of extremist ideologies,” said Dr Ehsan.

He said the “data delivered through a new mid-decade census will help us to develop a deeper understanding of various forms of demographic change, importantly enabling the country to better prepare for national crises such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic”.

The five areas covered by the proposed census are Preston, Middlesbrough, Leicester, Luton and Bournemouth, each of which have experienced demographic change, Policy Exchange said.

For example, between the last two censuses of 2011 and 2021, Preston’s Muslim population has increased from 11.2 per cent from 16.1 per cent, with its Christian population dropping from 61 per cent to 47.6 per cent.

Nadhim Zahawi...A Life of Influence and Decisions Victor Besa / The National

Mr Zahawi said authorities needed a deeper understanding of "how radically the situation has changed on the ground”.

“As a proud British man of Kurdish heritage who was born in Iraq, I still firmly believe that the UK remains one of the most successful examples of an advanced diverse democracy,” he said.

“However, massive population growth, spurred by unprecedented levels of mass migration in the last five years of so, makes the case for an emergency census next year inarguable.”