Diplomacy or war? US-Iran deadlock reaches fork in the road


Communication channels between the US and Iran remain open, with new messages exchanged through mediators, five diplomats and sources have told The National, as efforts to reach a lasting agreement to end the nearly seven-month-old war remain elusive.

The push to establish a fresh diplomatic path following the failure to achieve a breakthrough in New York during the UN General Assembly last month is unfolding against a backdrop of growing signs that both sides are preparing for a major confrontation.

Last week, a source in Tehran told The National that Iran was preparing for a “major round of fighting”. Days later, US media reports suggested the Trump administration is weighing renewed strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, and that the Pentagon had ordered preparations for possible major combat operations.

Gulf and Pakistani diplomatic sources said Qatar and Pakistan remain engaged in diplomacy with both sides, seeking to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table.

“We remain engaged,” said a Pakistani diplomatic source. “Behind the scenes, negotiations are still happening, messages are being passed, and engagement is continuing.”

Qatar and Pakistan have been acting as key intermediaries in the conflict, which erupted following US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. The two countries helped facilitate a settlement and brokered a provisional truce agreement in June that quickly fell apart. The war in the Middle East has jolted global energy markets and fuelled inflation.

Iran and the US have exchanged proposals in recent weeks to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy shipping route. US President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s latest offer and has warned that military operations could intensify after the midterm elections.

“After Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returned from New York, all diplomatic channels were effectively closed,” an Iranian source said. “This was one of the reasons behind the unusually strong warnings subsequently issued by Iran’s armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] regarding any further attack.”

But a source close to Iranian negotiators said message exchanges have since resumed. “China has also occasionally played a role in trying to bring the two sides’ positions closer, at Washington’s request,” the source added.

“The current exchange does not appear likely to produce meaningful results. The new US strategy is to continue exchanging messages while applying pressure intended to force Iran to submit to American demands. At the same time, Washington is mobilising for a third round of attacks against Iran.”

On Thursday, Mr Araghchi said ​d Iran is still reviewing Washington's ​response to ⁠its proposal under which ⁠the ​Strait ⁠of Hormuz ‌could ​be reopened within seven days, and could reply within days. "The ⁠diplomatic process is still continuing," he confirmed.

'Making demands'

Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said on Wednesday that Iran’s military could carry out further pre-emptive attacks if it deemed them necessary to deter future strikes. He also said the army had built up a large stockpile of newly developed offensive and defensive weapons, including missiles and drones, and was continuing to produce them.

US officials have also refused to rule out further escalation after Washington sent a third aircraft carrier to the region. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during a visit to Greece on Wednesday that Iran had missed multiple opportunities to reach a deal over its nuclear programme. Earlier, Vice President JD Vance stressed that Iran must make a “meaningful” reduction in its uranium enrichment capacity to meet Washington’s demands and end the war.

On Tuesday, Qatar said that its mediation efforts between the US and Iran were ongoing, confirming that the two sides were exchanging messages and that Doha was still acting as a mediator.

The comments came as Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited Doha this week and met Qatar’s Emir Sheikh. “The visit was publicly presented as being focused on the fate of the missing Iranian pilots, but there has also been a broader diplomatic purpose behind it,” said one of the Iranian sources.

Iran says three pilots were detained by Qatari forces after their military aircraft were downed in Qatar’s airspace in March. Doha has denied the claim, saying its search-and-rescue teams recovered the remains of one Iranian pilot and handed them over to Tehran.

The latest diplomatic activity also coincided with a visit to Pakistan by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who called on the US and Iran to end the conflict and return to diplomacy.

But the latest exchanges have yet to overcome fundamental differences over how a potential agreement should be structured.

“The US is making demands of Iran, but the Americans are not providing the Iranians with any guarantees,” said a source in Tehran. “The Iranians want firm guarantees that cannot subsequently be reversed.

“There is a strong internal struggle between the IRGC, the official diplomatic channels and Parliament. There is significant opposition to negotiations because talks with the Americans have been tried repeatedly in the past and have failed.”

Updated: October 08, 2026, 12:37 PM