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Iran is pressing retaliatory attacks on US allies in the Gulf in the third week of the war, destabilising the region, shaking global energy markets and stoking fears of rising inflation. The campaign follows the US-Israeli assault on Iran that began late last month.
As the conflict intensifies, Tehran’s public statements on the war have left regional neighbours trying to make sense of its intention. Conflicting messages from senior Iranian officials suggest that decisions over war and peace may not lie with the government, but with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Several Gulf states, including Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, were targeted on Wednesday. This comes after Iran vowed revenge for the killing of one of its most powerful decision-makers, Ali Larijani, who died in an Israeli strike on Tuesday. The head of the Basij, Iran’s feared paramilitary force, was also killed.
Mr Larijani’s killing marks another significant blow to Iran’s leadership. Known for bridging hardline military factions and more moderate political camps, analysts say that his absence could pave the way for the military to tighten its grip. This may further expose the structural divisions in Iran’s policymaking and deepen the long-standing rift between reformists and fundamentalists.
“The tension between different factions within the Iranian political system – particularly between members of the administration, the executive branch and the IRGC – is not new,” Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the Global and National Security Institute in Florida, told The National. “It has long been a structural feature of the Islamic Republic, especially when it comes to foreign policy.”
He said that the current war has intensified the contradictions.
“Hardliners increasingly perceive themselves to be facing an existential threat – not necessarily to the state as a whole, but to their own political position within it.
“They fear that the US may be seeking to empower elements within the administration, which would likely translate into greater influence for reformists at the expense of fundamentalists. This concern makes them particularly resistant to allowing reformist figures to lead any form of detente,” he added.
Conflicting statements
Last Saturday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that US strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island were launched from neighbouring countries, including the UAE. Kharg Island is central to Iran's oil exports and therefore to its economy. Any attack on its energy infrastructure could also have serious consequences for global oil markets that have already been pushed to the brink.
Mr Araghchi told MS Now in an interview that US forces used truck-based missile launchers known as High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (Himars) from the emirate of Ras Al Khaimah and from an area near Dubai. He did not provide evidence of his claims but warned Iran would respond to the attacks while avoiding populated areas.
Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed, responded directly to accusations made by the Iranian minister. He said in a post on X that after "the brutal Iranian attack" on the Emirates, "Mr Abbas Araghchi emerges to accuse the UAE of aggression against Iran, as part of a confused policy that has misdirected its aim, lost its compass and forsaken wisdom".
Himars has a range of 480km, while the distance from Ras Al Khaimah to Kharg Island is roughly 600km, and from Dubai to Kharg, about 665km, making the claimed strikes geographically implausible.
The UAE has been the most targeted Gulf state, with Iran firing more than 2,000 missiles and drones since the war began.
Oman, which played a mediator role between Iran and the US – including hosting the last round of talks before the war began – has been the least targeted. Yet it was struck, with attacks hitting fuel storage tanks at the Ports of Salalah and Duqm, a separate industrial zone in Sohar and oil tankers off the coast of Muscat.
Gulf states continue to exercise restraint, remaining on the defensive. They had previously stated that they would not allow their territory or airspace to be used for attacks against Iran. While Mr Araghchi has said that Tehran’s strikes “only target American bases and interests in the region”, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
The Gulf region has been hit by more than 3,800 Iranian missiles and drones, many of which have struck civilian and energy infrastructure, including five-star hotels, airports and residential buildings. At least 20 people have been killed across the Gulf so far, most of them security personnel or foreign workers.
There is a widening gap between Iran’s stated targeting logic and the empirical pattern of strikes in the Gulf, said Kristian Alexander, a senior fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute in Abu Dhabi.
“While Tehran claims to focus on military installations, the reality, particularly in the UAE, includes attacks or impacts near major airports, energy infrastructure and globally significant economic hubs. This suggests that the contradiction is not accidental but structural.
"Iran appears to be pursuing a dual narrative: one that preserves a veneer of legal restraint, while simultaneously applying pressure on the economic and infrastructural foundations of Gulf states,” he said.
Not one voice in Tehran
Mr Araghchi has repeatedly sent mixed messages. On March 1, he said, “Iran has always been open to diplomacy”, but in a CBS interview aired Sunday, he said, “We have never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiations”, adding that Iran would defend itself “as long as it takes”. And on Wednesday, he said he had no interest in a simple ceasefire, but wanted to end the war on “all fronts” in the region.
Similarly, President Masoud Pezeshkian pledged earlier this month to halt attacks against neighbouring countries unless an attack on Iran originated from their soil. Yet, shortly after, drones and missiles were fired at Gulf states.
“Iran is not speaking with one voice,” said Mr Alexander. “Government officials and diplomats do not fully control the military tempo of the conflict. The most consequential decisions now sit with the IRGC, the security apparatus and the wartime leadership core that has grown stronger since the killing of [Ali] Khamenei.
"The IRGC elevated Mojtaba Khamenei [the son of the country's former supreme leader] and are now dominant inside the system. The political wing may try to signal de-escalation, while the military wing continues to apply pressure.”
Mr Araghchi said his country's political system is "solid" and does not rely on one person. But the deaths of several high-ranking members could point to an absence of a centralised, decisive authority.
“In the past, figures such as Ali Khamenei served as the ultimate arbiter within the system,” said Mr Mahmoudian. “Today, that level of centralised command appears weaker or less effective, allowing factional divisions to surface more openly.”
