Key mediators help Hamas draft response to Trump's Gaza plan


Hamza Hendawi
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Regional mediators, including Egypt and Turkey, are helping Hamas to draft a response to US President Donald Trump's plan to end the Gaza war, sources told The National on Wednesday.

President Trump said on Tuesday that Hamas had three or four days to respond to his plan or face the consequences. “Hamas is either going to be doing it or not, and if it's not, it's going to be a very sad end,” he told reporters.

The sources said neither Egypt nor Turkey were pressuring Hamas to accept the plan, for which, according to Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, there is no alternative on the table.

Egypt, Qatar and the US have been trying for months without success to broker a Gaza ceasefire and secure the release of hostages held by Hamas. Turkey has also been mediating in the conflict, albeit in a much less publicised role.

“We submitted remarks, some of which were taken into consideration while others were not,” the Qatari Prime Minister told Al Jazeera in an interview.

“In general, when we talk about the main goals, there are objectives the plan can achieve, and others that need more clarity, discussion and negotiation. What we are looking at now is: what are the alternatives?

“After receiving the plan from President Trump, we handed it over to Hamas. Our discussions were general, without going into details, but we hope everyone approaches this matter constructively and takes advantage of this momentum to end the war in Gaza,” he said.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, Qatar's Prime Minister. Anadolu.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, Qatar's Prime Minister. Anadolu.

The sources, however, said Hamas has made it clear in discussions with mediators that it is not prepared to surrender its arms but is open to laying them down and having them stored under Arab supervision.

Hamas is also objecting to what its leaders see as the absence from the plan of a timetable for Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, according to the sources.

Hamas leaders are also opposed to what they view as placing postwar Gaza under an international mandate through the deployment of an international force to maintain security in the territory and a body led by President Trump himself to oversee the implementation of the plan, including reconstruction.

The Qatari Prime Minister acknowledged in his interview that the plan's implementation faces many challenges, but also indicated the roadmap's upside.

“We must look at the opportunities. For example, we all agreed on ending the war, preventing displacement, ensuring Israeli withdrawal, and that Palestinians will govern their own land,” he said.

The plan has been welcomed in principle by key Arab nations, including Egypt and Qatar. Egypt, which borders Gaza and Israel, has said the plan provides strong foundations that could be built on.

No to Blair

US President Donald Trump at the White House. Politico/Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump at the White House. Politico/Bloomberg

Mr Trump's plan, whose text was released by the White House on Monday, provides for a ceasefire, the release of hundreds of Palestinians held in Israeli jails in exchange for the 48 hostages held by Hamas – only 20 of whom are believed to be alive, the flow of humanitarian aid, and an amnesty for Hamas leaders wishing to disassociate themselves from violence and to leave Gaza.

Significantly, the plan does not provide for the removal of Palestinians, voluntarily or otherwise, from Gaza, something that was floated by President Trump in January and zealously embraced by Israel since. It prohibits Israel from occupying or annexing the territory.

It embraces the principle of a two-state solution to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but without giving a timeline for the creation of an independent Palestinian state or specifying its territory.

It also bars Israel from annexing the occupied West Bank, a move that extremist members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government have been clamouring for in recent months.

Displaced Palestinians fleeing northern Gaza. Reuters
Displaced Palestinians fleeing northern Gaza. Reuters

On Wednesday, a Hamas official and a source close to the group said former British prime minister Tony Blair is not welcome to take part in any future governance of Gaza.

Mr Blair has been identified as a member of a “peace board” and would occupy a senior role in the administration of Gaza after the war under the Trump plan. Those with knowledge of the plan say the role would be more like chairman of a board than direct administrator.

“Blair is not welcome in the Palestinian context, and linking any plan to his name sends a negative signal to the Palestinian people,” the Hamas official told The National.

“Blair is a negative figure and deserves to have his name brought before international courts for his actions, especially his role in the Iraq war,” the official added.

A Palestinian political source close to Hamas said “there is no Palestinian consensus or agreement so far on the appointment of Blair, and as Palestinians we reject any guardianship imposed on Gaza”.

They added: “We do not accept the appointment of Blair, especially given his past role and position regarding the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian people.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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