The future of the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem could rest on Monday’s meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump, in which they are expected to discuss Israel’s furious response to a wave of western nations recognising a Palestinian state.
Possible countermeasures include some form of official annexation of the territory, sanctions against foreign missions that work there and Israel tightening its crippling military occupation of the occupied West Bank.
Mr Netanyahu suffered a damaging string of defeats, described by opponents in Israel as a “diplomatic tsunami”, after the UK, Canada, Australia and Portugal recognised a Palestinian state last week, followed by France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra and San Marino soon after at the UN General Assembly. Most Israeli politicians, in and out of government, shared the Prime Minister’s intense criticism of the move, with many calling for retaliatory action.
Mr Trump has also consistently made clear his opposition to recognition, although, in a major announcement, said he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank on Thursday.
There are fears, however, that without concrete accompanying measures to keep the two-state solution alive, the wave of recognitions risks becoming only symbolic, paving the way for Israel to take damaging countermeasures, including declaring full sovereignty in the occupied West Bank.
Israel’s government has long floated the possibility of annexing the territory. The policy is a particular priority of the government’s strong ultranationalist settler cohort, for whom conquering Biblical land for Jews is a key priority. In 2024, one of their leaders, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, said “the year 2025 will, with God’s help, be the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria,” a biblical term for the West Bank.
The wave of recognitions come as Israel launches unprecedented assaults on the two-state solution framework, long the majority of the international community’s preferred route to ending the Israel-Palestine conflict.
In early September, Mr Smotrich said measures were being drawn up for annexation, standing in front of a map that depicts all but six major Palestinian population centres being annexed. The minister, who also holds a role relating to the West Bank in the Defence Ministry, has in his tenure spearheaded the approval of new settlements, most importantly of a massive new bloc know as E1, next to Jerusalem, which critics say could end the prospect of a viable Palestinian state.
Since the government came into power Israel has also intensified its military occupation of the West Bank, by erecting checkpoints, increasing military raids and fully displacing and destroying refugee camps in the north of the territory. There has also been a significant rise in settler violence, which reached even higher levels during the Gaza war, with entire communities being erased and daily attacks that frequently injure residents and even kill them.
Calls for annexation were made more broadly as reports mounted that western states were on the brink of Palestinian recognition. Israeli opponents cast the move as a reward for Hamas’s October 7 attacks and a stab in the back that endangers the security of a close ally.
Recent days have seen major international pushback against annexation, including from Mr Trump. The pressure puts Mr Netanyahu in a dilemma of whether to appease the US or his coalition partners bent on annexation, who could topple the government.
In response to an continuing push to end the Gaza war, which appears to be gathering momentum, Mr Smotrich demanded that Israel annex parts of the of the occupied West Bank and that the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs parts of the area, have no future role there or in Gaza.
Yossi Dagan, head of a major settler council, said “only sovereignty in Judea and Samaria is victory”.
“Disagreements can also happen between friends and Netanyahu is precisely the one who can stand up and tell the US that this is what is good for the nation of Israel,” he added.
It is possible Mr Netanyahu makes a territorial grab that he brands at home as a major step towards declaring sovereignty in the occupied West Bank and abroad as a compromise that stops short of annexation. Scenarios include declaring sovereignty over Area C, around 60 per cent of the region, over which Israel currently has full security and civilian control under the Oslo Accords. Given the area’s vast size, this is still considered a drastic step.
Other options include declaring sovereignty over the Jordan Valley, which Israel views as strategically important land and much of which it has already declared a military zone. Another would be annexing some or all Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law.
There are also fears that Israel will target the diplomatic operations of countries that recognised Palestine, particularly for missions that are based in East Jerusalem or Ramallah, who work with Palestinians. The Times of Israel reported on Thursday that Israel was expected to take its harshest actions against France. There are also fears that a nation like Canada, which is not in the EU nor has quite as deep ties with Israel as non-EU nations such as the UK, is an easier target.
Israel took differing actions against Norway, Spain and Ireland, who recognised Palestine in May last year. Norway had its diplomatic accreditation removed, meaning diplomats who worked with Palestinians had no immunity in Israel or Israeli-controlled territory. The mission relocated to Amman where it continues to work today. The embassy in Tel Aviv, which works with Israelis, still operates.
Ireland’s mission to the Palestinians remains, but sources report a spate of new delays in its day-to-day operations, such as receiving accreditation for diplomatic cars and troubles with customs. Spain suffered even fewer consequences, likely because it took a deliberately low profile after Palestinian recognition.
These actions provide a clue for what Israel could do in its latest retaliation. Among the more serious options, there is also the possibility of Israel seizing assets owned by the recognising countries, particularly in the case of France which has valuable religious and archaeological properties across Jerusalem and a consulate in the West.
