The future of the Kurds: From dreams of independence to settling for peace

As dynamics shift in the Middle East, Kurds seek to preserve what they possess

Iraqi Kurds have offered help to their cousins in Syria and welcomed the move by Turkey's Kurdistan Workers' Party to embark on a peace process. AFP

Rapid shifts and outbreaks of turmoil in Middle East politics have left their mark on the role and ambitions of the region's Kurds.

With a population spread across key countries – Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran – the recent changes have turned the Kurdish dream of independence transform into one of peace.

Messages issued by Kurdish officials from Iraq and Syria in recent months have called for the prevention of conflict and the safeguarding of peace to preserve what they have.

“The power of peace is greater than the power of all wars,” the President of the Kurdish region of Iraq, Nechirvan Barzani, said at the Sulaimani Forum last week, echoing a sentiment that seems to be shared across the Kurdish political spectrum.

The catalyst for the change was the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria at the end of last year. The new self-appointed government's efforts to consolidate power clash with the autonomy that Kurdish areas in the north-east had established during more than a decade of war.

Surrounded by conflict, and countries that have historically suppressed independence movements, the Kurds in Iraq appear to have adopted a more pragmatic approach as they seek to position themselves as mediators for peace. However, they continue to face domestic challenges.

The Iraqi Kurds have offered help to their cousins in Syria in preserving their autonomy under the new government, and welcomed moves by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to embark on a peace process with Turkey.

Advantage of autonomy

Iraqi Kurds have for the past three decades enjoyed autonomy from the government in Baghdad and used it to their advantage to forge their own political and economic path. They have cultivated their own regional relations and formed their own government, unlike Kurds elsewhere.

While the rest of Iraq was mired in conflict, the Kurdistan region stood in contrast as a beacon of peace, to the point that independence seemed within reach until the regional response to a 2017 referendum shattered the dream.

Slowly, the federal government in Baghdad started dragging the balance of power its way, with a series of supreme court rulings undermining Kurdish autonomy. In addition, the two ruling Kurdish parties – the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) – have been at odds in recent years with both sides criticising one another.

Delayed parliamentary elections took place on October 20 but parties have yet to reach a consensus on forming a government, raising concerns that they may fail to do so before Iraq’s parliamentary election on November 11. Mr Barzani urged the KDP and the PUK to “expedite” the process.

With officials both from sides in Sulaymaniyah for the forum, the two parties held a meeting there on Thursday but no details were revealed. The KDP was represented by senior party official Hoshyar Zebari while the PUK team was chaired by Qubad Talabani, who is also the incumbent deputy prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

But despite its internal quarrelling, the Kurdish region is determined to help pave the path forward towards peace.

“If we can play an effective role in mediating between the parties involved in regional hostilities and improving the security of the region, that would be a positive contribution,” Prime Minister Masrour Barzani said.

President Nechirvan Barzani stated that “the Kurds and the people of Kurdistan are inherently peaceful … whenever there has been a hint of peace, the people of Kurdistan embraced it with optimism”.

In a likely reference to developments in Syria and Turkey, he said attempts to erase the Kurds in the past had been unsuccessful and only damaged the wider region.

“The last century has unequivocally shown that the disregard and rejection of the rights of the Kurds and the people of Kurdistan have led to ongoing conflict, chaos, destruction, suffering, and stagnation in the region,” he said.

The model of autonomy in the Kurdish region of Iraq is seen as a successful one, with its leaders balancing relations with Baghdad, Iran, Turkey and the US.

“We are one of the major partners in the Middle East,” KRG Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed said.

“We have to talk about the equilibrium of the nationalities who are living here, from the Kurdish perspective, we have to take care of the future of all the constituents here in the Middle East,” he said, echoing the notion that perhaps they could represent Kurds elsewhere as opportunities for peace arise.

Turkish question

In Turkey, Kurds have endured decades of conflict between the state and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – an insurgent group designated as a terrorist organisation by Ankara, the US and the European Union.

An opportunity arose at the end of February when jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan issued a call to the group to disarm and disband, raising hopes of a renewed peace process to end a conflict that has claimed more than 40,000 lives on both sides.

Ahead of the announcement, the Turkish party that mediated between the PKK and the government held meetings with Kurdish officials in both Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, seeking the support of their Iraqi counterparts in the process.

“Developments in Turkey aimed at fostering peace represent a significant historical opportunity. We wholeheartedly endorse and support these efforts,” President Barzani said.

“Through peace, the role of Kurdistan in the region will be greatly strengthened.” However, “peace cannot be achieved by one side alone,” Prime Minister Barzani noted, recognising the involvement of nationalist parties in Turkey as a positive sign.

The PKK announced a ceasefire shortly after Ocalan’s call but a framework for the peace process is yet to be revealed. The historic announcement came months after the regime change in Syria where Kurdish groups that Ankara considers to be PKK-affiliated have carved their own areas of control.

“Ocalan’s initiative was very welcomed by us because during all these years, Turkey’s reason to attack us in the north-east was related to the PKK,” Ilham Ahmed, co-chairman of foreign affairs for the SDF's political wing, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), told The National. She said that the group's own peace process with Turkey was a separate matter.

But the priority for Kurds in Syria at the moment is ensuring their rights in the country’s new constitution and political framework.

Decentralisation in Syria

“Our brothers and sisters in Syria can benefit from the Kurdistan Region’s experiment,” Masrour Barzani stated. “What is important for us is that they are united. If they are united they can preserve their rights better.”

“The solution of the Kurdish issue in Syria is not easy but the Kurdistan Region [of Iraq] is ready to provide support in this regard,” Mr Zebari said.

Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara and SDF chief Mazloum Abdi signed an agreement in March to integrate the forces into Syria’s state institutions. Ms Ahmed described the deal as “historic” but lamented the lack of Kurdish representation in the temporary constitution that followed.

Mr Al Shara signed a 53-article interim constitutional declaration in March, criticised by minority communities for reinforcing religious exclusion and greater rights. It keeps Syria’s name as the Syrian Arab Republic, makes Arabic the sole official language, and enforces Sharia. It also requires that the president be Muslim.

Ms Ahmed said that there were “red lines” when it came to the constitution and that they had proposed changing the country’s name to Republic of Syria to remove the “racist” connotations linked to its current name that omits the existence of other ethnic groups.

The crucial demand with regards to the constitution, agreed upon by the ruling Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the opposition Kurdish National Council (ENKS), is the issue of federalism and decentralisation.

“What we are proposing now … we have years of working on self-administration … we are proposing this model to be used in other areas,” Ms Ahmed said, referring to other areas such as Deraa, Idlib and Suwayda where a degree of self-administration has been in place.

“We will insist on this … this model should not just be in the north-east, it should be a model for all of Syria,” she added.

Ms Ahmed emphasised that Kurds in Syria were not seeking independence and argued that decentralisation would lead to further instability and conflict. However, in an unstable and volatile region, unexpected changes could happen at any time.

“Through peace, the role of Kurdistan in the region will be greatly strengthened,” Nechirvan Barzani stated.