Few people have had more influence on modern Lebanon or are as knowledgeable of Middle East politics than Walid Jumblatt, the veteran politician and figurehead of the Druze community.
Although he may have stepped back in 2023 as the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, he remains extensively engaged and few voices carry as much weight as his during one of the most challenging periods in the Middle East's history, with Syria's regime change, the growing tensions between Iran and the US and a weakened Hezbollah.
The primary connection between all these events is Israel's multi-front war in a rapidly changing region, where each power is trying to change the rules of engagement to its benefit through war and diplomacy.
“Israel has a free hand. It's up to the Arabs to understand the dangerous policy of Israel that is planning to dislocate the whole of the Arab world," said Mr Jumblatt in a comprehensive interview with The National that discussed the future of Lebanon and the Middle East.
The politician has witnessed every major transformation in the Middle East over the past several decades. Still, his career has been most defined by Lebanon’s civil war from 1975 to 1990, when his father, Kamal Jumblatt, was assassinated. The tall, thin, mustachioed Walid Jumblatt survived many attempts on his life. During the war, his armed followers fought bloody battles with Christians. They also fought Shiite gunmen during the deadly events of May 2008.
Now, decades later, as Lebanon marks the half-century anniversary of the war’s outbreak this month, the country finds itself once again in ruins, this time following a conflict between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel.
“The Israelis have allowed themselves to attack any place in Lebanon, any place in Syria, maybe any place in the Arab world if according to them it is supposed to be a danger to them," Mr Jumblatt said.
Despite a US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah agreed in November, the Israeli military continues to bomb south Lebanon daily, and Beirut has been attacked twice in the past week. Israeli troops continue to occupy five locations in Lebanese territory.
For Mr Jumblatt, the ceasefire was one in name only – because Israel retains soldiers in Lebanon and can attack at will.
He described it as an “illusion” and a “big lie” that anyone in the world can pressure Israel to temper its actions – whether in Lebanon, Gaza, the occupied West Bank or elsewhere.
Under the ceasefire terms, Hezbollah is supposed to withdraw north of the Litani River and dismantle its weapons on the border with Israel. The Israeli army is supposed to withdraw from south Lebanon, and the Lebanese Army moves in – responsible for ensuring the ceasefire is upheld, including that no offensive actions are carried out from Lebanon.
Mr Jumblatt praised the Lebanese Army, saying it was doing “an excellent” job – while adding that the military faced a mammoth task that required major financial backing, including from abroad – and time. He also showed support for Lebanon's new authorities, led by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
“What is required of us, the Lebanese state, we are doing, what is necessary – which is pacify the south, to reconstruct the south; this is a big issue. Who’s going to reconstruct the south and other areas affected by the war?” he said. “We need foreign help, we don’t have enough resources here to cover the terrible damage and destruction done by the Israeli army during the year and a half.”
The World Bank recently estimated the economic cost of Israel's war on Lebanon – a country already entrenched in economic crisis – to be $14 billion, including $6.8 billion in damage to physical infrastructure alone.
When Hezbollah and Israel last fought all-out war in 2006, Lebanon could count on wealthy Gulf backers to help pay the bill. But they have reduced their footprint in recent years – at least before the most recent war – amid the perceived rise of the power of Hezbollah and Iran over Lebanon.
Some international donors have made aid conditional on reforms to Lebanon's much criticised financial sector, which have not been delivered so far.
“They pretend it is linked to reforms – I don't understand how helping the people of Lebanon who lost their homes and relatives is linked to reforms? We can have a separate fund to help these people,” said Mr Jumblatt.
Israel's war on Lebanon left Hezbollah, an armed group but also a political party and social movement that retains strong support within the Shiite community, severely degraded and most of its senior leadership dead.
The group is entering a new era without its charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah, assassinated in September, and under even greater pressure from Israel, much of the international community, and detractors inside Lebanon.
“Hezbollah should understand that now, going back to the old methods … armed resistance – it won't work,” said Mr Jumblatt. “But Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese society. They are members of parliament. You cannot say that Hezbollah as a political entity does not exist. They do exist.
“Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese Shiite society. You cannot exclude Hezbollah; you cannot isolate Hezbollah. It's not democracy.”
Give Syria's leader a chance
Lebanon and the Middle East have also been also been struck by the aftermath of regime change in Syria. Mr Jumblatt, a well-read intellectual, was the first senior Lebanese figure to visit the country's new leader Ahmad Al Sharaa after the fall of the Assad regime when he met with the Syrian rebel turned President in Damascus last December.
“Syria should stay united. They have already formed a government, which is good, that represents most of the Syrian people,” Mr Jumblatt said.
“Give them a chance. Give Ahmad Al Shara a chance. Because when you give Ahmad Al Shara a chance, you are giving a chance to the Syrian people. I think he's an intelligent person, and he's clever. I'm just saying give Ahmad Al Shara a chance.”
He was also critical of Israeli efforts to weaken or divide Syria as Israel continues to bomb Syria and make overtures towards Syria's Druze community.
The spiritual leader of Syria's Druze minority, Sheikh Hikmat Al Hijri, launched a scathing tirade against the new authorities in Damascus, calling the former government “extremist, wanted men", a day after a deal was signed to integrate the sect's militias into the state apparatus. The authorities announced last week a new government, inclusive of technocrats.
The relationship between the Jumblatt family and the Assad regime was fraught and complicated for decades. Kamal Jumblatt's assassination in 1977 in Lebanon was a crime long-blamed on the Assad regime. Kamal was at odds with Bashar Al Assad's father, Hafez, over his troops' intervention in the Lebanese civil war.
Syrian security forces recently arrested former intelligence officer Ibrahim Huweija, suspected of numerous killings, including that of Mr Jumblatt senior. His arrest, along with the fall of the Assad regime, were described by Walid Jumblatt as “divine justice”.
As Israel increases its overtures towards Syria's Druze community, it is also expected to continue to break the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon’s Hezbollah as part of a broader pressure campaign on Beirut, senior Lebanese sources told The National.
It comes as senior Lebanese officials accused Israel of attempting to lure the country into normalising relations.
Lebanese politicians from across the spectrum have been quick to reject talk of normalising relations with Israel. Lebanon does not recognise Israel and prohibits any contact.
While a landmark maritime border deal was agreed upon in 2022, Israel continues to occupy land claimed by Lebanon, and there remain 13 contested border points.
“I'm not favouring and will never favour peace between us and Israel," said Mr Jumblatt.
At the same time, “we cannot go back to the old situation whereby firing rockets could alter Israeli policy. We have to adopt a new policy based on keeping the state of armistice between us and Israel," he added.
The Middle East's quick changes were sparked by the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the war on Gaza that followed.
More than 50,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel in the Palestinian territory as the Israelis continue with their assault on the enclave and seizing land in the occupied West Bank.
“Gaza has been systematically destroyed. No Palestinian Gaza will be left," said the Druze leader.
