US President Donald Trump is seeking a negotiated deal with Iran that curbs its ballistic missiles programme and ends its support to regional proxies without resorting to the direct strikes that are sought by Washington's hawks, according to a prominent expert on Iran’s foreign policy.
Mr Trump has expressed a will to engage with Iran, seven years after he pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” with aggressive sanctions and air strikes on the Islamic Republic to reach similar ends. A letter inviting supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Pezeshkian to talks was rejected by Tehran on Monday, who described it as deceptive and bullying.
But recent regional developments including the Hamas war with Israel, Syria's regime change and US air strikes this week on Iran's proxy force the Houthis in Yemen, raise hope that it would be willing to engage in a new agreement that would end the 45-year US-led embargo on the country that has crippled its economy.
Professor Mohsen Milani, political scientist and author of Iran’s Rise and Rivalry with the US in the Middle East, said Mr Trump’s letter came with calculations in Washington that Iran's position had weakened.
The US-based expert views Mr Trump as being egged on by officials who believe it is time to “finish the job” in Iran and achieve regime change.
“The conventional wisdom in Washington and in London today is that Iran has become a weakened, wounded state and therefore the conclusion is that we need to finish the job, either (by) bombing Iranian nuclear facilities, plus its military infrastructure, or it could also mean regime change,” Prof Milani said.
“They want to go after Iranian missiles … drones. They want to put an end to Iranian support for their non-state actors,” he said at Chatham House in London on Monday.
Tehran was unlikely to concede on these measures in talks despite Mr Trump's overture, said Prof Milani, who is director of the Centre for Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the University of South Florida. “If Iran agrees to all of this, then they might as well raise a white flag,” he said.
Mr Trump first made those demands in his previous term as US president, when he withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that was negotiated by his predecessor Barack Obama.
The Obama deal had sought a temporary halt to Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, in exchange for a lifting of sanctions. But critics including Mr Trump said it had given Tehran the money and free rein to expand its network of violent regional proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
There have been key changes since Mr Trump's last term which could change the game, Prof Milani said. “Its power has significantly diminished. The overthrow of the Assad regime was to Iran what the Iranian Revolution was to the United States in 1979 because Iran lost its most important state actor in the Middle East,” he said.
On the diplomatic front, one change since 2018 is that Iran now has tools that could encourage it to sit at the table. Among them is the new diplomatic openings Iran has made to Gulf neighbours, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which put it in a better negotiating position with the US.
Yet Mr Trump's “bluntness” raises fears that he may not succeed in striking a deal, according to John Sawers, a former British diplomat who also once headed the UK’s secret intelligence service.
“The exceptional negotiation skills of the Iranians up against the bluntness of President Trump is not an easy mix. It's not a good match,” Mr Sawers said, speaking at foreign affairs think tank Chatham House on Monday. “I think there'll be a lot of effort being put into these negotiations, but I wonder how far they will get.”
One common ground they could find is lowering oil prices – which could be done by lifting the US embargo on Iranian oil and reintroducing it to the global market.
“It's not that the Americans want the Iranians to export oil,” Mr Sawers said. “But part of the American strategy is to reduce the price of oil, and to do that having Iranian crude back on the global markets will have an impact there.”
But the real possibility of air strikes – which Mr Trump could resort to – has left Iran with limited choices.
“Trump is prepared to use violence against Iran. He may not think it through, but there is a binary choice for the Iranians,” Mr Sawers said.
Nuclear breakout
Iran could go down the “dangerous” route of seeking sanctions relief through a nuclear deal with Mr Trump, while pursuing its nuclear weapons programme at the same time, he warned.
“The dangerous approach is if the Iranians are too clever by half, they pursue both a negotiating route and a nuclear weaponisation route at the same time, and see which one advances further,” he said.
“If Iran does go down the route of weaponisation, [Israel's national intelligence agency] Mossad is sufficiently sophisticated and penetrative of the Iranian system that they will know about it, and then that would be the trigger for a military strike,” Mr Sawers said. “That is a dangerous route [for Iran] to go, and it's not impossible.”
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
How to join and use Abu Dhabi’s public libraries
• There are six libraries in Abu Dhabi emirate run by the Department of Culture and Tourism, including one in Al Ain and Al Dhafra.
• Libraries are free to visit and visitors can consult books, use online resources and study there. Most are open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays, closed on Fridays and have variable hours on Saturdays, except for Qasr Al Watan which is open from 10am to 8pm every day.
• In order to borrow books, visitors must join the service by providing a passport photograph, Emirates ID and a refundable deposit of Dh400. Members can borrow five books for three weeks, all of which are renewable up to two times online.
• If users do not wish to pay the fee, they can still use the library’s electronic resources for free by simply registering on the website. Once registered, a username and password is provided, allowing remote access.
• For more information visit the library network's website.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
RESULTS
Bantamweight
Victor Nunes (BRA) beat Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK)
(Split decision)
Featherweight
Hussein Salim (IRQ) beat Shakhriyor Juraev (UZB)
(Round 1 submission, armbar)
Catchweight 80kg
Rashed Dawood (UAE) beat Otabek Kadirov (UZB)
(Round-1 submission, rear naked choke)
Lightweight
Ho Taek-oh (KOR) beat Ronald Girones (CUB)
(Round 3 submission, triangle choke)
Lightweight
Arthur Zaynukov (RUS) beat Damien Lapilus (FRA)
(Unanimous points)
Bantamweight
Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) beat Furkatbek Yokubov (RUS)
(Round 1 TKO)
Featherweight
Movlid Khaybulaev (RUS) v Zaka Fatullazade (AZE)
(Round 1 rear naked choke)
Flyweight
Shannon Ross (TUR) beat Donovon Freelow (USA)
(Unanimous decision)
Lightweight
Dan Collins (GBR) beat Mohammad Yahya (UAE)
(Round 2 submission D’arce choke)
Catchweight 73kg
Martun Mezhulmyan (ARM) beat Islam Mamedov (RUS)
(Round 3 submission, kneebar)
Bantamweight world title
Xavier Alaoui (MAR) beat Jaures Dea (CAM)
(Unanimous points 48-46, 49-45, 49-45)
Flyweight world title
Manon Fiorot (FRA) v Gabriela Campo (ARG)
(Round 1 RSC)
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
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A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: 2-litre 4-cylinder and 3.6-litre 6-cylinder
Power: 220 and 280 horsepower
Torque: 350 and 360Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh136,521 VAT and Dh166,464 VAT
On sale: now
UAE v Ireland
1st ODI, UAE win by 6 wickets
2nd ODI, January 12
3rd ODI, January 14
4th ODI, January 16
Family reunited
Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was born and raised in Tehran and studied English literature before working as a translator in the relief effort for the Japanese International Co-operation Agency in 2003.
She moved to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies before moving to the World Health Organisation as a communications officer.
She came to the UK in 2007 after securing a scholarship at London Metropolitan University to study a master's in communication management and met her future husband through mutual friends a month later.
The couple were married in August 2009 in Winchester and their daughter was born in June 2014.
She was held in her native country a year later.